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YouGov
Sept 30, 2022 5:48:19 GMT
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Post by willpower3 on Sept 30, 2022 5:48:19 GMT
The Tories will hold about three seats in Scotland even in a worse case scenario, regardless of what Dross they have as leader.
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2022 6:47:01 GMT
Post by batman on Sept 30, 2022 6:47:01 GMT
that's not what the polls have said for months now. They lose every single seat on a single-digit swing from the SNP. They may end up with some seats, but they have been wiped out before, and it could happen again.
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Post by willpower3 on Sept 30, 2022 7:13:45 GMT
that's not what the polls have said for months now. They lose every single seat on a single-digit swing from the SNP. They may end up with some seats, but they have been wiped out before, and it could happen again. Uniform swing doesn't apply in Scotland.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 30, 2022 7:27:10 GMT
The Tories will hold about three seats in Scotland even in a worse case scenario, regardless of what Dross they have as leader. They didn’t hold any in the worst case scenario in 1997. If they are around 30% at the next GE, It’s quite likely they wouldn’t hold any.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 30, 2022 7:47:57 GMT
that's not what the polls have said for months now. They lose every single seat on a single-digit swing from the SNP. They may end up with some seats, but they have been wiped out before, and it could happen again. Uniform swing doesn't apply in Scotland. or anywhere
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Post by afleitch on Sept 30, 2022 8:22:49 GMT
Except the SNP are polling 5% - which must be the equivalent of approaching 60% in Scotland (subsample excepted). The Scottish sub-sample was: SNP 44, Lab 38, Con 10, Grn 4, LDm 2, RUK 1, Oth 1. Obviously you can’t infer too much from a sub-sample and we’d need a full scale Scotland poll to know what impact the recent events may have had on Scottish voting intentions. I cannot see the Lib Dems being as low as 2% in a full scale poll, while the Tories may hold on more of their vote due to the unionist factor. Yeah, as someone who tracks the subsamples, it's the same shift as rUK except the SNP haven't moved. Worth noting that the Tories still have a lead amongst over 65's in this poll.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 30, 2022 8:44:28 GMT
The Tories will hold about three seats in Scotland even in a worse case scenario, regardless of what Dross they have as leader. They didn’t hold any in the worst case scenario in 1997. If they are around 30% at the next GE, It’s quite likely they wouldn’t hold any. The Scotland of 1997 and of 2022 are different places. I'm not predicting anything, but a wipeout isn't the near foregone conclusion that certain posters are making out.
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Post by afleitch on Sept 30, 2022 8:54:36 GMT
On that topic. I've chatted the published subsamples (warning) for every poll since the funeral. I've excluded Find Out Now as they have a 600+ sample (SNP 51, LAB 25, CON 14, LD 6)
The average is (over 11 polls);
SNP 45 LAB 27 CON 16 LD 8 GRN 3 REF 1
This includes R&W with 3 polls who tend to give stranger samples. Labour lead by 11 in the last one but the SNP only led the Tories by 10 in the sample before.
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2022 10:01:56 GMT
Post by michaelarden on Sept 30, 2022 10:01:56 GMT
Except the SNP are polling 5% - which must be the equivalent of approaching 60% in Scotland (subsample excepted). The Scottish sub-sample was: SNP 44, Lab 38, Con 10, Grn 4, LDm 2, RUK 1, Oth 1. Obviously you can’t infer too much from a sub-sample and we’d need a full scale Scotland poll to know what impact the recent events may have had on Scottish voting intentions. I cannot see the Lib Dems being as low as 2% in a full scale poll, while the Tories may hold on more of their vote due to the unionist factor. Interesting thanks - does suggest that the SNP is picking up c1% across the rest of the UK. If both Lib Dems and Tories do better than this due to unionist factors then that's going to come off the Labour pile surely? Anyway it's only a single poll.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 30, 2022 10:16:18 GMT
The Scottish sub-sample was: SNP 44, Lab 38, Con 10, Grn 4, LDm 2, RUK 1, Oth 1. Obviously you can’t infer too much from a sub-sample and we’d need a full scale Scotland poll to know what impact the recent events may have had on Scottish voting intentions. I cannot see the Lib Dems being as low as 2% in a full scale poll, while the Tories may hold on more of their vote due to the unionist factor. Interesting thanks - does suggest that the SNP is picking up c1% across the rest of the UK. If both Lib Dems and Tories do better than this due to unionist factors then that's going to come off the Labour pile surely?
Anyway it's only a single poll. Its quite likely to significantly be Corbynista types who are very browned off with Labour anyway.
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r34t
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2022 12:29:56 GMT
Post by r34t on Sept 30, 2022 12:29:56 GMT
Except the SNP are polling 5% - which must be the equivalent of approaching 60% in Scotland (subsample excepted). The SNP have never got anywhere near 60% of the vote in Scotland. We need to look at subsamples (famously weird), and to recognise that people without a vote in Scotland often choose SNP in polls. Labour's 2015 GE candidate in NE Somerset stropped off back to London after his defeat, left the party & joined the SNP
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2022 12:40:08 GMT
Post by John Chanin on Sept 30, 2022 12:40:08 GMT
The SNP have never got anywhere near 60% of the vote in Scotland. We need to look at subsamples (famously weird), and to recognise that people without a vote in Scotland often choose SNP in polls. Labour's 2015 GE candidate in NE Somerset stropped off back to London after his defeat, left the party & joined the SNP Hmm….as far as I can tell he is of American origin and currently lives in France. I’m not sure what the connection with the SNP might be.
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r34t
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Sept 30, 2022 12:44:00 GMT
Post by r34t on Sept 30, 2022 12:44:00 GMT
Labour's 2015 GE candidate in NE Somerset stropped off back to London after his defeat, left the party & joined the SNP Hmm….as far as I can tell he is of American origin and currently lives in France. I’m not sure what the connection with the SNP might be. wasn't totally sure what was his connection with Labour tbh .....
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2022 12:47:53 GMT
Post by John Chanin on Sept 30, 2022 12:47:53 GMT
Hmm….as far as I can tell he is of American origin and currently lives in France. I’m not sure what the connection with the SNP might be. wasn't totally sure what was his connection with Labour tbh ..... He was a councillor in Kensington before being selected to fight Rees-Mogg in NE Somerset.
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nodealbrexiteer
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2022 13:17:54 GMT
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 30, 2022 13:17:54 GMT
that's not what the polls have said for months now. They lose every single seat on a single-digit swing from the SNP. They may end up with some seats, but they have been wiped out before, and it could happen again. Uniform swing doesn't apply in Scotland. Time for a new version of the ICM variometer
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2022 16:05:07 GMT
Post by batman on Sept 30, 2022 16:05:07 GMT
I averaged the last 3 polls (before the Omnisis one came out a short while ago). Labour wins 5 of the 11 seats in Surrey, the LDs 3 and the Tories 3..........I mean, goodness me. (One of the few Tory wins, however, would be the seat where the Leader of the Opposition grew up.)
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YouGov
Sept 30, 2022 16:05:37 GMT
Post by batman on Sept 30, 2022 16:05:37 GMT
and 13 Labour wins in Scotland since that was mentioned above.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 7, 2022 0:22:55 GMT
YouGov have quietly put some data tables on their website which includes voting intention by urban-rural area. There are two separate polls from 27 Jul-5 Aug (A) and 23-29 Sep (B); the first poll surveyed 3,636 people, the second 5,293. The article is here: link. OverallPoll A: Lab 36, Con 34, LDm 12, Grn 7, SNP 5, RUK 3, PC 1, Oth 2 Poll B: Lab 50 (+14), Con 24 (-10), LDm 8 (-4), Grn 6 (-1), SNP 5 (nc), RUK 4 (+1), PC 1 (nc), Oth 1 (-1) UrbanPoll A: Lab 38, Con 32, LDm 11, Grn 8, SNP 4, RUK 4, PC 1, Oth 1 Poll B: Lab 52 (+14), Con 23 (-9), LDm 8 (-3), Grn 6 (-2), SNP 4 (nc), RUK 4 (nc), PC 1 (nc), Oth 1 (nc) Town & FringePoll A: Lab 36, Con 36, LDm 13, Grn 6, SNP 5, RUK 2, PC 1, Oth 2 Poll B: Lab 44 (+8), Con 30 (-6), LDm 9 (-4), Grn 5 (-1), RUK 5 (+3), SNP 4 (-1), PC 1 (nc), Oth 2 (nc) RuralPoll A: Con 43, Lab 24, LDm 13, SNP 7, Grn 5, RUK 3, PC 2, Oth 2 Poll B: Lab 41 (+17), Con 28 (-15), LDm 9 (-4), SNP 8 (+1), Grn 6 (+1), RUK 4 (+1), PC 1 (-1), Oth 3 (+1) I can't find an official list for Scotland and Wales for urban-rural classification, but the relevant figures in England in 2019 were (anyone got the Scotland and Wales list?): Urban: Lab 41, Con 41, LDm 11, Grn 3, Brx 3, Oth 1 Town: Con 57, Lab 25, LDm 13, Grn 3, Brx 1, Oth 2 Rural: Con 59, Lab 19, LDm 16, Grn 4, Brx 1, Oth 2
Interesting there's been a 16% swing to Labour in Rural areas according to the polling. I imagine the Lib Dems will take a decent share of the Labour vote come an election in rural areas and certain towns. On these figures, perhaps it's possible the Conservatives would be in severe trouble in their rural seats.
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 7, 2022 1:09:37 GMT
A lot depends on how they're defining rural. Many constituencies look rural on the map, but actually have a mainly urban population - Scarborough and Whitby, for instance. It wouldn't be particularly surprising if Labour won some of these. But if their rural constituencies are genuinely just ones composed of small towns at most, then that poll would point to all kinds of implausible seats changing hands.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Oct 7, 2022 6:20:49 GMT
There are of course large areas of the south west and Wales which have massive rural poverty. In England they've historically been LibDem but this is the best opportunity Labour will ever get to corner that market. Especially as the LibDem and Tories are now both really poor fits for those voters.
I also wouldn't be surprised if parts of rural Scotland have seen a large Con-Lab swing amongst unionist voters
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