YouGov

[The Bishop]

Mar 5, 2013 10:27:22 GMT marksenior said:

Mar 5, 2013 8:34:19 GMT @ianrobo said:

Lab 40 - Lowest since November
Tory 31
Ukip and LD at 12

Bob Dylan
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is rapidly fadin'
And the first one now
Will later be last
Foe the times they are a changin'

A very optimistic reading of a single - and probably aberrant - poll

Approval remains in the doldrums at -35, btw.

[Andrew_S]

O/T:

YouGov finds 36% would consider voting UKIP:

uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/05/uk-britain-ukip-poll-idUKBRE9240PF20130305

[The Bishop]

Fairly similar scores for the Greens and even the BNP in the past - fairly meaningless question, IMO.....

(same with the "more likely/less likely" hypothetical that pollsters are a bit too fond of)

[Deleted]

Mar 5, 2013 19:24:05 GMT Andrew_S said:

O/T:

YouGov finds 36% would consider voting UKIP:

uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/05/uk-britain-ukip-poll-idUKBRE9240PF20130305

allowed the sun of course to print a BS line

[Deleted]

Mar 5, 2013 20:48:16 GMT @ianrobo said:

Mar 5, 2013 19:24:05 GMT Andrew_S said:

O/T:

YouGov finds 36% would consider voting UKIP:

uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/05/uk-britain-ukip-poll-idUKBRE9240PF20130305

allowed the sun of course to print a BS line

Yes, we shouldn't make wild assumptions from one poll.



*sigh*

[Pimpernal]

Mar 5, 2013 19:38:02 GMT The Bishop said:

Fairly similar scores for the Greens and even the BNP in the past - fairly meaningless question, IMO.....

(same with the "more likely/less likely" hypothetical that pollsters are a bit too fond of)

The reason, imho, that it is not so meaningless is that it shows the potential vote that could be achieved by a party if people actually believe they can win in any given competitin.

This was what happened in Eastleigh - the more people realised UKIP could win, the more they were happy to vote for them. The early poll that showed 36% of people would consider voting for UKIP was pretty similar, and had we got the full 36% we would have won...

[Deleted]

That first sentence brought back memories of our old election maps; "This is how the country would look if those who thought we would win voted."

[Deleted]

Today L 42 c 29 Ukip 12

[The Bishop]

Full figures:

Lab 42
Con 29
UKIP 12
LibDem 11

Approval -40 (lowest for some time)

[Tony Otim]

I think now is a good time to re-ask the question I asked last week. When, if ever, was the last time we had a sustained period of polling with 4 parties all in double figures?

[The Bishop]

Mar 6, 2013 11:25:51 GMT Tony Otim said:

I think now is a good time to re-ask the question I asked last week. When, if ever, was the last time we had a sustained period of polling with 4 parties all in double figures?

The only answer I can think of is the immediate aftermath of the formation of the SDP in spring 1981 - for a few months afterwards both they and the Libs were polled seperately, the "Alliance" only being formally set up that autumn??

[Davıd Boothroyd]

1981 before the SDP and Liberals formed an alliance.

Brief period in 1989 when Greens had a boost following European elections.

[The Bishop]

But were the SLD (as they were known then) and the "continuing" SDP ever polling double figures when the Greens did?? Don't think so.....

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The continuing SDP was only once shown in double figures, in a phone poll by Audience Selection published on 27 February 1989 (just after the Richmond byelection boost) when they had 11%. The SLD had 7% in the same poll.

[Pimpernal]

Mar 6, 2013 8:29:29 GMT @ianrobo said:

Today L 42 c 29 Ukip 12

Don't forget the minor parties!

[The Bishop]

UKIP maintain their rating today:

Lab 41
Con 31
UKIP 12
LibDem 11

Approval -36

[The Bishop]

The UKIP downswing has started!

Lab 41
Con 32
LibDem 11
UKIP 11

Approval -38

[Pimpernal]

Mar 8, 2013 11:16:07 GMT The Bishop said:

The UKIP downswing has started!

Mar 5, 2013 11:07:18 GMT The Bishop said:

A very optimistic reading of a single - and probably aberrant - poll

Ahem!

[The Bishop]

Weekend poll:

Lab 41
Con 31
LibDem 12
UKIP 11

Approval -35

[The Bishop]

Labour lead at its lowest for a bit:

Lab 40
Con 32
LibDem 11
UKIP 11

Approval -37

Government approval has deteriorated notably in the last month, but so far the VI figures haven't followed suit (if anything, the Tory position has improved slightly) A conundrum - but it might be worth noting that the same happened just over a year ago, and we know what followed.....