YouGov

[Deleted]

Media coverage of the AAA rating loss has mercifully made little difference to the polls also. So far, anyway.

[The Bishop]

On D-day for Eastleigh:

Lab 43
Con 32
LibDem 11
UKIP 8

Approval -34

[Pimpernal]

I have to admit that I'm a bit worried that we now seem stuck on this 8% level...

[Pete Whitehead]

We'll get a boost from Eastleigh though

[tonygreaves]

11 is the new 5!

Tony Greaves

[tonygreaves]

11 is the new 5!

Tony Greaves

[The Bishop]

We heard you the first time, M'Lud

[Pimpernal]

Wasn't the Honourable one mentioned on telly last night?

[woollyliberal]

So what do you reckon? Will UKIP's relative success last night see a shift in opinion polls. A bleed to UKIP that comes disproportionally from the Conservatives could give Labour some big leads in the polls.

[Deleted]

of course it could bt I think if you repeated this election tomorrow under a general election you would see a true reflection

[Deleted]

Mar 1, 2013 8:36:23 GMT @ianrobo said:

of course it could bt I think if you repeated this election tomorrow under a general election you would see a true reflection

Not even Peter Snow believed the "on a uniform swing, this will happen" predictions.

[Deleted]

what I meant is that if a GE was called today and in a months time Eastleigh had another election then you guys would win with around 40% and UKIP taking a few from Tory and us improving a littlr

[The Bishop]

Well, today's figures already show something of a Tory-UKIP shift FWIW:

Lab 42
Con 29
LibDem 12
UKIP 11

Approval -35

[Tony Otim]

It will be interesting to see, having got through gropegate with unscathed ratings and no electoral losses whether the LDs do get a bit of a boost from Eastleigh and/or whether UKIP do? Could we see a sustained period of 4 parties polling over 10%? Is there a precedent for that?

[The Bishop]

By-elections often don't move the polls much - Bradford West last year didn't affect Labour's rise around then all.

Had UKIP actually won, it might have been a different matter admittedly.....

[The Bishop]

Following the by-election, UKIP in third:

Lab 42
Con 31
UKIP 11
LibDem 10

Approval -36

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Today's YouGov/Sunday Times:

Lab 42
C 31
UKIP 11
L Dem 10
Oths 5

Approval -36
All party leaders have seen their personal ratings fall back.

Although I think the most interesting question is later on:

Q: "Which would make you more likely to vote for the Conservative party in the future?"

I would be more likely to vote for the Conservatives if they tried to be more moderate, reached out to more groups in society, and concentrated on issues like the public services: 25
I would be more likely to vote for the Conservatives if they tried to put forward a clearer Conservative message, and concentrated on traditional issues like cutting taxes and reducing immigration: 30

In other words, whether the Conservatives lurch to the right, or make efforts to be moderate, they gain and lose roughly the same number of voters.

[Deleted]

Lab 40 - Lowest since November
Tory 31
Ukip and LD at 12

[marksenior]

Mar 5, 2013 8:34:19 GMT @ianrobo said:

Lab 40 - Lowest since November
Tory 31
Ukip and LD at 12

Bob Dylan
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is rapidly fadin'
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a changin'

[Deleted]