Deltapoll

[andrew111]

Jul 28, 2019 10:44:43 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jul 28, 2019 9:10:20 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

Talking of familiarity, the Tories are struggling to hit 30% even in this latest round of 'honeymoon' polls. Boris Johnson is hardly a fresh face, and many will recall his 'metropolitan liberal' mayoralty of London and thus are skeptical of him. I wonder if a relatively fresh faced Brexiteer such as Raab or McVey would be seeing Tory percentages a few points higher. 

In comparing with 2017, worth remembering that May was considered such a strong asset that the party was branded Theresa May's Conservatives. Strong and Stable was an excellent slogan based on public perception of her which only looks terrible in the hindsight of her wooden use of it combined with the perception being proved wrong.

IMO the Conservatives risk the same error - Boris was chosen not because he is outstanding, or loved, or respected, or has a coherent ideology, but because (like May) he was the only choice, and because he is seen to be a vote winner who can carry an unpopular party over the line. If he personally fucks up like May did over Dementia Tax the party is screwed because he's all they've got. And he's just won leadership election where he had to be hidden from public view for fear of fucking up, yet he still damn near managed it. It's not a certainty, but it's a big risk.

Yes, when you just look at the results, Theresa achieved a vote share for the Tories equivalent to Thatcher in her heyday, and i very much doubt that Johnson will manage that.

Corbyn had the good luck to be the new face on the block, more reasonable than the press had portrayed him, and the best refuge for Remainers angry with May and her rhetoric. Competing with him for the Remain vote was Tim Farron who started on only 10% and immediately got tripped up by the gay sin fiasco, and the Greens whose vote just got swallowed up. Only in Scotland was there a credible alternative for Remain voters apart from a few specific constituencies where the Lib Dems or Plaid were credible.
Next time Swinson and Farage will present more credible problems for both Johnson and Corbyn, with both of their Parties having beaten both Tories and Labour in the Euros, and the Greens have a real raison d'etre in the new salience of Green issues.

[carlton43]

Jul 28, 2019 15:18:08 GMT andrew111 said:

Jul 28, 2019 10:44:43 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

In comparing with 2017, worth remembering that May was considered such a strong asset that the party was branded Theresa May's Conservatives. Strong and Stable was an excellent slogan based on public perception of her which only looks terrible in the hindsight of her wooden use of it combined with the perception being proved wrong.

IMO the Conservatives risk the same error - Boris was chosen not because he is outstanding, or loved, or respected, or has a coherent ideology, but because (like May) he was the only choice, and because he is seen to be a vote winner who can carry an unpopular party over the line. If he personally fucks up like May did over Dementia Tax the party is screwed because he's all they've got. And he's just won leadership election where he had to be hidden from public view for fear of fucking up, yet he still damn near managed it. It's not a certainty, but it's a big risk.

Yes, when you just look at the results, Theresa achieved a vote share for the Tories equivalent to Thatcher in her heyday, and i very much doubt that Johnson will manage that.

Corbyn had the good luck to be the new face on the block, more reasonable than the press had portrayed him, and the best refuge for Remainers angry with May and her rhetoric. Competing with him for the Remain vote was Tim Farron who started on only 10% and immediately got tripped up by the gay sin fiasco, and the Greens whose vote just got swallowed up. Only in Scotland was there a credible alternative for Remain voters apart from a few specific constituencies where the Lib Dems or Plaid were credible.
Next time Swinson and Farage will present more credible problems for both Johnson and Corbyn, with both of their Parties having beaten both Tories and Labour in the Euros, and the Greens have a real raison d'etre in the new salience of Green issues.

The 2017 vote figures were achieve DESPITE May not because of her for structural reasons to do with fears of Conservatives, the Right, the Left, Corbyn, Brexit and no-Brexit. What started as a likely sound Conservative majority win was engineered away by consummate stupidity and rank carelessness to an actual stand-off near loss!

We tend to radically overstate the beneficial influence of the Leader on the result in Britain and understate the Leader detriment. In 2017 I think Corbyn was a small net loss and May a major net loss. The rest is down to perception of the Offer, perception of Recent history, how positive the electorate feels about itself and its future and immediate personal circumstances.

[thinwhiteduke]

[casualobserver]

It's beginning to look as if the proroguing of Parliament is not of itself a vote-loser for the Conservatives.

Many events will undoubtedly occur in the next two months which will affect public opinion, but the decision to prorogue Parliament wouldn't appear, from YouGov and Deltapoll, to have harmed the Conservatives at all.

[Deleted]

Which is interesting given its not popular. I suspect not affected the tory vote because tory voters support prorogation

[The Bishop]

Though still, given that Lab/LibDem/BxP are all little changed in this poll - where has the Tory increase come from?

[carlton43]

Sept 1, 2019 10:15:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Though still, given that Lab/LibDem/BxP are all little changed in this poll - where has the Tory increase come from?

I think we are steadily regaining those who departed to BP and even UKIP, a constant trickle from one demographic in Labour, but most of all former (non-member) support that had gone to not active/not voting is now returning from their deep dislike of all things May as they warm to Johnson's first statements and actions.

[torremark]

Sept 1, 2019 13:25:07 GMT carlton43 said:

Sept 1, 2019 10:15:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Though still, given that Lab/LibDem/BxP are all little changed in this poll - where has the Tory increase come from?

I think we are steadily regaining those who departed to BP and even UKIP, a constant trickle from one demographic in Labour, but most of all former (non-member) support that had gone to not active/not voting.

It can only have come from Green Ukip SNP or other party options I have not seen the breakdown for all parties you can not tell unless they quote the figures including don’t know/won’t say. If anybody has the full breakdown can they post it please.

[Tony Otim]

Well the July poll still had 2% for Chuk, so maybe from there 😉

[tonygreaves]

Given the lack of complete info this looks like a crap poll from a crap outfit? Perhaps they have UKIP on a minus number..

[WJ]

Sept 1, 2019 10:15:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Though still, given that Lab/LibDem/BxP are all little changed in this poll - where has the Tory increase come from?

Ein Gwlad

[casualobserver]

Full poll details:

Con: 35
Lab: 24
LD: 18
BRX: 14
SNP: 4
GRN: 4
PC: 1
ChUK: 1

astute forum members will already have noticed the rounding difference.

[hedgehog]

Sept 1, 2019 13:38:26 GMT torremark said:

Sept 1, 2019 13:25:07 GMT carlton43 said:

I think we are steadily regaining those who departed to BP and even UKIP, a constant trickle from one demographic in Labour, but most of all former (non-member) support that had gone to not active/not voting.

It can only have come from Green Ukip SNP or other party options I have not seen the breakdown for all parties you can not tell unless they quote the figures including don’t know/won’t say. If anybody has the full breakdown can they post it please.

Please shoot me, but after what feels like a millenia discussing Brexit with remainers, I'm tempted to join the Boris bounce.

Anyone know when this realignment of British politics is going to happen, when it does put me down for the party that's got all the best bits of the Greens, a dollop of social conservatism, and a tiny hint of capitalism, happy to discuss other bits and pieces.

[tonygreaves]

Did they not ask about UKIP or was it another 0 (plus or minus 3%)?

[afleitch]

[jamie]

I give up. Seriously, I just can’t anymore 😂😭😭

[thinwhiteduke]

[Deleted]

[andrewp]

Nov 2, 2019 21:15:16 GMT @priceofdawn said:

It would confound the predictions a bit if that trend continues and by Election Day the Conservatives and Labour got 80% between them again. 

[msc]

That's this Deltapoll in the Mail?

Hmm, I can't find the actual details, but according to the Mail's Deltapoll write up..

Tories 49 Lab 17 in Wales?

Tories lead in London?

SNP 27 Tories 25 Lab 22 in Scotland?

Hmm indeed...