Deltapoll

[carolus]

Jul 27, 2019 20:05:05 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Good news for ChUK here...

[jamie]

Should be noted that the last Delta poll was conducted straight after the European elections i.e. Tories worst ebb.

[Andrew_S]

[The Bishop]

An even more meaningless hypothetical than usual, given that no alternative Labour leader(s) even gets specified.

[woollyliberal]

Jul 27, 2019 21:02:19 GMT The Bishop said:

An even more meaningless hypothetical than usual, given that no alternative Labour leader(s) even gets specified.

For many, that's not the important thing. ABC.

[jamie]

Hypothetical polling is famously terrible and i've said so before on here so the exact hypothetical numbers are pretty meaningless. However, the idea that Corbyn is a massive electoral dead weight over Labour is not exactly a radical proposition. His personal ratings are absolutely atrocious. Short of being succeeded by Diane Abbott, i struggle to see someone having such as a negative effect on Labour's poll performance.

[lefty]

Jul 27, 2019 21:12:11 GMT woollyliberal said:

Jul 27, 2019 21:02:19 GMT The Bishop said:

An even more meaningless hypothetical than usual, given that no alternative Labour leader(s) even gets specified.

For many, that's not the important thing. ABC.

I think the acronym was actually CUK and despite the cries barely anybody voted for them, because they had actual people, an actual (well sort of) leader and some (very few admittedly) actual policies.

If a hypothetical imagined leader with hypothetical policies can only get 34% then I worry actual people with actual policies would struggle to match our current scores.

[lefty]

Jul 27, 2019 22:46:00 GMT jamie said:

Hypothetical polling is famously terrible and i've said so before on here so the exact hypothetical numbers are pretty meaningless. However, the idea that Corbyn is a massive electoral dead weight over Labour is not exactly a radical proposition. His personal ratings are absolutely atrocious. Short of being succeeded by Diane Abbott, i struggle to see someone having such as a negative effect on Labour's poll performance.

TBH if massive electoral dead weights produce the kind of general election performances Corbyn has then ideally I want left wing parties to always have electoral dead weights as leader. From a party meant to be in retreat everywhere with Scottish heartlands gone and UKIP a threat in many Northern heartlands to a resurgent party that denied the Conservatives their majority despite many in the party on a war footing against the leader and a press even more vicious than their usual standards whilst promoting a popular left wing programme.

The man is quite simply a miracle worker. I can't say how the next election will go but I'm not stupid enough to bet against Corbyn.

[Vibe]

Jul 27, 2019 23:34:25 GMT lefty said:

Jul 27, 2019 22:46:00 GMT jamie said:

Hypothetical polling is famously terrible and i've said so before on here so the exact hypothetical numbers are pretty meaningless. However, the idea that Corbyn is a massive electoral dead weight over Labour is not exactly a radical proposition. His personal ratings are absolutely atrocious. Short of being succeeded by Diane Abbott, i struggle to see someone having such as a negative effect on Labour's poll performance.

TBH if massive electoral dead weights produce the kind of general election performances Corbyn has then ideally I want left wing parties to always have electoral dead weights as leader. From a party meant to be in retreat everywhere with Scottish heartlands gone and UKIP a threat in many Northern heartlands to a resurgent party that denied the Conservatives their majority despite many in the party on a war footing against the leader and a press even more vicious than their usual standards whilst promoting a popular left wing programme.

The man is quite simply a miracle worker. I can't say how the next election will go but I'm not stupid enough to bet against Corbyn.

The right must love you 😆

[lefty]

Jul 27, 2019 23:49:59 GMT Vibe said:

Jul 27, 2019 23:34:25 GMT lefty said:

TBH if massive electoral dead weights produce the kind of general election performances Corbyn has then ideally I want left wing parties to always have electoral dead weights as leader. From a party meant to be in retreat everywhere with Scottish heartlands gone and UKIP a threat in many Northern heartlands to a resurgent party that denied the Conservatives their majority despite many in the party on a war footing against the leader and a press even more vicious than their usual standards whilst promoting a popular left wing programme.

The man is quite simply a miracle worker. I can't say how the next election will go but I'm not stupid enough to bet against Corbyn.

The right must love you 😆

Usually right up until the point the general election results start coming in....

[woollyliberal]

Jul 27, 2019 23:25:16 GMT lefty said:

Jul 27, 2019 21:12:11 GMT woollyliberal said:

For many, that's not the important thing. ABC.

I think the acronym was actually CUK

How does CUK spell Anyone But Corbyn?

[woollyliberal]

Jul 27, 2019 23:34:25 GMT lefty said:

The man [Corbyn] is quite simply a miracle worker.

The size of the increase in Lib Dem membership is something of a miracle. 36,000 in 3 months? Who'd have thought it?

[finsobruce]

Jul 28, 2019 7:57:52 GMT woollyliberal said:

Jul 27, 2019 23:25:16 GMT lefty said:

I think the acronym was actually CUK

How does CUK spell Anyone But Corbyn?

Corbyn's Universality Kaput?

[andrew111]

Jul 27, 2019 23:34:25 GMT lefty said:

Jul 27, 2019 22:46:00 GMT jamie said:

Hypothetical polling is famously terrible and i've said so before on here so the exact hypothetical numbers are pretty meaningless. However, the idea that Corbyn is a massive electoral dead weight over Labour is not exactly a radical proposition. His personal ratings are absolutely atrocious. Short of being succeeded by Diane Abbott, i struggle to see someone having such as a negative effect on Labour's poll performance.

TBH if massive electoral dead weights produce the kind of general election performances Corbyn has then ideally I want left wing parties to always have electoral dead weights as leader. From a party meant to be in retreat everywhere with Scottish heartlands gone and UKIP a threat in many Northern heartlands to a resurgent party that denied the Conservatives their majority despite many in the party on a war footing against the leader and a press even more vicious than their usual standards whilst promoting a popular left wing programme.

The man is quite simply a miracle worker. I can't say how the next election will go but I'm not stupid enough to bet against Corbyn.

3 important things have changed since 2017:
1) Corbyn is now familiar, and we know what that breeds
2) The Tories do not have Mrs Strong and Stable at the helm, but someone even more adept at populist undeliverable spending promises than Corbyn
3) The Lib Dems are credible again, as they were for decades up to 2010. Normal service resumes here. The Greens will also be harder to squeeze than in 2017.

Labour might do quite well in a pre Brexit general election if the Remain vote coalesces around them, but post Brexit they will do well to get 30% under Corbyn. That is my (virtual) bet anyway.

[jamie]

Jul 27, 2019 23:34:25 GMT lefty said:

TBH if massive electoral dead weights produce the kind of general election performances Corbyn has then ideally I want left wing parties to always have electoral dead weights as leader. From a party meant to be in retreat everywhere with Scottish heartlands gone and UKIP a threat in many Northern heartlands to a resurgent party that denied the Conservatives their majority despite many in the party on a war footing against the leader and a press even more vicious than their usual standards whilst promoting a popular left wing programme.

The man is quite simply a miracle worker. I can't say how the next election will go but I'm not stupid enough to bet against Corbyn.

Corbyn’s personally ratings surged in at the 2017 general election. However, he was still tied with May for best prime minister which says a lot (and quickly fell behind again). The examples of Scotland and UKIP are pretty poor imo, considering both were not caused by Corbyn but rather caused by both issues (independence and need for pro-Brexit party) running out of steam and some of those voters coming back to Labour. Corbyn’s ratings have tanked since 2017 and are much worse than they were even in the 1st half of his leadership. Much of the programme is popular (often very popular) but the man himself is dragging Labour down. 

For the record I do think Corbyn can win a general election, but Labour would be winning despite rather than because him. 

[pragmaticidealist]

Jul 28, 2019 8:15:45 GMT andrew111 said:

Jul 27, 2019 23:34:25 GMT lefty said:

TBH if massive electoral dead weights produce the kind of general election performances Corbyn has then ideally I want left wing parties to always have electoral dead weights as leader. From a party meant to be in retreat everywhere with Scottish heartlands gone and UKIP a threat in many Northern heartlands to a resurgent party that denied the Conservatives their majority despite many in the party on a war footing against the leader and a press even more vicious than their usual standards whilst promoting a popular left wing programme.

The man is quite simply a miracle worker. I can't say how the next election will go but I'm not stupid enough to bet against Corbyn.

3 important things have changed since 2017:
1) Corbyn is now familiar, and we know what that breeds
2) The Tories do not have Mrs Strong and Stable at the helm, but someone even more adept at populist undeliverable spending promises than Corbyn
3) The Lib Dems are credible again, as they were for decades up to 2010. Normal service resumes here. The Greens will also be harder to squeeze than in 2017.

Labour might do quite well in a pre Brexit general election if the Remain vote coalesces around them, but post Brexit they will do well to get 30% under Corbyn. That is my (virtual) bet anyway.

Talking of familiarity, the Tories are struggling to hit 30% even in this latest round of 'honeymoon' polls. Boris Johnson is hardly a fresh face, and many will recall his 'metropolitan liberal' mayoralty of London and thus are skeptical of him. I wonder if a relatively fresh faced Brexiteer such as Raab or McVey would be seeing Tory percentages a few points higher. 

[jamie]

Jul 28, 2019 8:15:45 GMT andrew111 said:

Labour might do quite well in a pre Brexit general election if the Remain vote coalesces around them, but post Brexit they will do well to get 30% under Corbyn. That is my (virtual) bet anyway.

I’m not actually sure about this. Corbyn’s success in 2017 was in part making the election not about Brexit while at the same time winning over a lot of remain voters who were upset about Brexit. I agree that he should try to get the remain vote to once again coalesce around Labour if an election takes place before Brexit. However, post-Brexit a lot of those remainers would still refuse to vote Conservative because of Brexit while the Lib Dem’s USP of ‘Stop Brexit’ would be dead and ‘Rejoin’ would have much less appeal. So there would be a lot of potential swing voters who won’t vote Conservative and have lost much of the reason they were considering voting Lib Dem. In that situation I still think there is a decent case for Corbyn doing quite well and getting 30% wouldn’t be too hard I think. Winning is another matter and I wouldn’t want to predict this far out and with so many unknowns. 

[The Bishop]

Jul 28, 2019 7:57:52 GMT woollyliberal said:

Jul 27, 2019 23:25:16 GMT lefty said:

I think the acronym was actually CUK

How does CUK spell Anyone But Corbyn?

In a metaphorical sense, it does.

The point is that people may say that, but any alternative still has to be credible.

[Adam in Stroud]

Jul 28, 2019 9:10:20 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

Jul 28, 2019 8:15:45 GMT andrew111 said:

3 important things have changed since 2017:
1) Corbyn is now familiar, and we know what that breeds
2) The Tories do not have Mrs Strong and Stable at the helm, but someone even more adept at populist undeliverable spending promises than Corbyn
3) The Lib Dems are credible again, as they were for decades up to 2010. Normal service resumes here. The Greens will also be harder to squeeze than in 2017.

Labour might do quite well in a pre Brexit general election if the Remain vote coalesces around them, but post Brexit they will do well to get 30% under Corbyn. That is my (virtual) bet anyway.

Talking of familiarity, the Tories are struggling to hit 30% even in this latest round of 'honeymoon' polls. Boris Johnson is hardly a fresh face, and many will recall his 'metropolitan liberal' mayoralty of London and thus are skeptical of him. I wonder if a relatively fresh faced Brexiteer such as Raab or McVey would be seeing Tory percentages a few points higher. 

In comparing with 2017, worth remembering that May was considered such a strong asset that the party was branded Theresa May's Conservatives. Strong and Stable was an excellent slogan based on public perception of her which only looks terrible in the hindsight of her wooden use of it combined with the perception being proved wrong.

IMO the Conservatives risk the same error - Boris was chosen not because he is outstanding, or loved, or respected, or has a coherent ideology, but because (like May) he was the only choice, and because he is seen to be a vote winner who can carry an unpopular party over the line. If he personally fucks up like May did over Dementia Tax the party is screwed because he's all they've got. And he's just won leadership election where he had to be hidden from public view for fear of fucking up, yet he still damn near managed it. It's not a certainty, but it's a big risk.

[jamie]

Anybody got the full poll? Poor practice imo to report on the CUK 2% but not the Greens (who are presumably polling higher)