Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,720 
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Post by Jack on Jul 14, 2018 23:23:31 GMT
New pollster made up of ex-ICM and YouGov folk:
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2018 9:22:32 GMT
That tweet indicates they have at least one previous survey to their name?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 15, 2018 9:24:42 GMT
May not necessarily have published it.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Deltapoll
Jul 15, 2018 12:01:04 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2018 12:01:04 GMT
They have but I hadn't realised they did voting intentions
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jul 15, 2018 12:13:02 GMT
New pollster made up of ex-ICM and YouGov folk: The look on may's face says it all. |
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 20, 2018 8:04:17 GMT
Latest Deltapoll preview -
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Sept 3, 2018 12:21:43 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 3, 2018 13:00:26 GMT
Not for me, and I think it is a mistake to think that is so for the majority of Remainers. The economy is the focus now because (a) there are fairly urgent economic issues looming up straight after exit. (b) a lot of Remainers (wrongly IMO) think "aha, they'll all change their minds when it goes pear-shaped and hits them in the pocket" (c) a lot of us think the govt is ballsing up the trade discussions, which are in the news now, so that's where the attack is made. (Some prominent Leave politicos seem to be focussing on the importance of being able to do our own trade deals post-Brexit too, which seems a bit odd as I'd not have thought this was vital for that many of the actual voters.) I've long felt that carlton43 is right in saying that Brexit is about two tribes with fundamentally different values going at each other and the hard core of Remain thinking perceives Brexit as being tied up to a backward looking, Imperial-nostalgic, xenophobic-bordering-on-racist mindset, with a subset of ultra-Thatcherite slash-and-burners waiting to take advantage, and a lingering suspicion that it's something to do with Trump and Putin. It's one of those issues which attracts completely unconnected issues - e.g. it's my bet that attitudes to climate change would align relatively closely (though not perfectly) to attitudes to Brexit. I'm sure you could have a good go at debunking that but I'm also pretty sure that's the perception out there; and it's what worries and energises Continuity Remainers a sight more than any worry that the economy might go up or down a bit for a few years. If Leavers could either "detoxify" Brexit from some of those perceptions or deliver on some of their own "other issues" - say, a genuine sense that the ordinary person really had regained a bit of control from faceless authority, or that process was noticeably more democratic, then Brexit could be successful irrespective of the economics (within reason). |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Sept 3, 2018 13:08:38 GMT
Not for me, and I think it is a mistake to think that is so for the majority of Remainers. The economy is the focus now because (a) there are fairly urgent economic issues looming up straight after exit. (b) a lot of Remainers (wrongly IMO) think "aha, they'll all change their minds when it goes pear-shaped and hits them in the pocket" (c) a lot of us think the govt is ballsing up the trade discussions, which are in the news now, so that's where the attack is made. (Some prominent Leave politicos seem to be focussing on the importance of being able to do our own trade deals post-Brexit too, which seems a bit odd as I'd not have thought this was vital for that many of the actual voters.) I've long felt that carlton43 is right in saying that Brexit is about two tribes with fundamentally different values going at each other and the hard core of Remain thinking perceives Brexit as being tied up to a backward looking, Imperial-nostalgic, xenophobic-bordering-on-racist mindset, with a subset of ultra-Thatcherite slash-and-burners waiting to take advantage, and a lingering suspicion that it's something to do with Trump and Putin. It's one of those issues which attracts completely unconnected issues - e.g. it's my bet that attitudes to climate change would align relatively closely (though not perfectly) to attitudes to Brexit. I'm sure you could have a good go at debunking that but I'm also pretty sure that's the perception out there; and it's what worries and energises Continuity Remainers a sight more than any worry that the economy might go up or down a bit for a few years. If Leavers could either "detoxify" Brexit from some of those perceptions or deliver on some of their own "other issues" - say, a genuine sense that the ordinary person really had regained a bit of control from faceless authority, or that process was noticeably more democratic, then Brexit could be successful irrespective of the economics (within reason). So that’s how you perceive me! |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 3, 2018 13:13:48 GMT
Not for me, and I think it is a mistake to think that is so for the majority of Remainers. The economy is the focus now because (a) there are fairly urgent economic issues looming up straight after exit. (b) a lot of Remainers (wrongly IMO) think "aha, they'll all change their minds when it goes pear-shaped and hits them in the pocket" (c) a lot of us think the govt is ballsing up the trade discussions, which are in the news now, so that's where the attack is made. (Some prominent Leave politicos seem to be focussing on the importance of being able to do our own trade deals post-Brexit too, which seems a bit odd as I'd not have thought this was vital for that many of the actual voters.) I've long felt that carlton43 is right in saying that Brexit is about two tribes with fundamentally different values going at each other and the hard core of Remain thinking perceives Brexit as being tied up to a backward looking, Imperial-nostalgic, xenophobic-bordering-on-racist mindset, with a subset of ultra-Thatcherite slash-and-burners waiting to take advantage, and a lingering suspicion that it's something to do with Trump and Putin. It's one of those issues which attracts completely unconnected issues - e.g. it's my bet that attitudes to climate change would align relatively closely (though not perfectly) to attitudes to Brexit. I'm sure you could have a good go at debunking that but I'm also pretty sure that's the perception out there; and it's what worries and energises Continuity Remainers a sight more than any worry that the economy might go up or down a bit for a few years. If Leavers could either "detoxify" Brexit from some of those perceptions or deliver on some of their own "other issues" - say, a genuine sense that the ordinary person really had regained a bit of control from faceless authority, or that process was noticeably more democratic, then Brexit could be successful irrespective of the economics (within reason). I agree the 'Two Tribes' concept and your broad analysis as set out above. In my tribe I think there are quite a few signifier memes 1) Strong dislike of the multicultural concept 2) Strong dislike of any level of immigration 3) Developed degree of English nationalism 4) Tendency to at least element of wider global warming denial 5) A marked support for Capital punishment 6) A marked support for imperial measure and Fahenheit |
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Post by froome on Sept 3, 2018 13:23:28 GMT
Not for me, and I think it is a mistake to think that is so for the majority of Remainers. The economy is the focus now because (a) there are fairly urgent economic issues looming up straight after exit. (b) a lot of Remainers (wrongly IMO) think "aha, they'll all change their minds when it goes pear-shaped and hits them in the pocket" (c) a lot of us think the govt is ballsing up the trade discussions, which are in the news now, so that's where the attack is made. (Some prominent Leave politicos seem to be focussing on the importance of being able to do our own trade deals post-Brexit too, which seems a bit odd as I'd not have thought this was vital for that many of the actual voters.) I've long felt that carlton43 is right in saying that Brexit is about two tribes with fundamentally different values going at each other and the hard core of Remain thinking perceives Brexit as being tied up to a backward looking, Imperial-nostalgic, xenophobic-bordering-on-racist mindset, with a subset of ultra-Thatcherite slash-and-burners waiting to take advantage, and a lingering suspicion that it's something to do with Trump and Putin. It's one of those issues which attracts completely unconnected issues - e.g. it's my bet that attitudes to climate change would align relatively closely (though not perfectly) to attitudes to Brexit. I'm sure you could have a good go at debunking that but I'm also pretty sure that's the perception out there; and it's what worries and energises Continuity Remainers a sight more than any worry that the economy might go up or down a bit for a few years. If Leavers could either "detoxify" Brexit from some of those perceptions or deliver on some of their own "other issues" - say, a genuine sense that the ordinary person really had regained a bit of control from faceless authority, or that process was noticeably more democratic, then Brexit could be successful irrespective of the economics (within reason). Yep, this is the case, and Carlton's later post supports it. If Remainers through it was all about the economy today, some of those on the laft would undoubtedly be Leavers. On Adam's point about climate change alignment, I'm sure that is right, but would point out that one of the few Green Leavers I know well is also one of those who is most passionate in his concern about climate change. |
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 3, 2018 14:34:25 GMT
Not for me, and I think it is a mistake to think that is so for the majority of Remainers. The economy is the focus now because (a) there are fairly urgent economic issues looming up straight after exit. (b) a lot of Remainers (wrongly IMO) think "aha, they'll all change their minds when it goes pear-shaped and hits them in the pocket" (c) a lot of us think the govt is ballsing up the trade discussions, which are in the news now, so that's where the attack is made. (Some prominent Leave politicos seem to be focussing on the importance of being able to do our own trade deals post-Brexit too, which seems a bit odd as I'd not have thought this was vital for that many of the actual voters.) I've long felt that carlton43 is right in saying that Brexit is about two tribes with fundamentally different values going at each other and the hard core of Remain thinking perceives Brexit as being tied up to a backward looking, Imperial-nostalgic, xenophobic-bordering-on-racist mindset, with a subset of ultra-Thatcherite slash-and-burners waiting to take advantage, and a lingering suspicion that it's something to do with Trump and Putin. It's one of those issues which attracts completely unconnected issues - e.g. it's my bet that attitudes to climate change would align relatively closely (though not perfectly) to attitudes to Brexit. I'm sure you could have a good go at debunking that but I'm also pretty sure that's the perception out there; and it's what worries and energises Continuity Remainers a sight more than any worry that the economy might go up or down a bit for a few years. If Leavers could either "detoxify" Brexit from some of those perceptions or deliver on some of their own "other issues" - say, a genuine sense that the ordinary person really had regained a bit of control from faceless authority, or that process was noticeably more democratic, then Brexit could be successful irrespective of the economics (within reason). Yep, this is the case, and Carlton's later post supports it. If Remainers through it was all about the economy today, some of those on the laft would undoubtedly be Leavers. On Adam's point about climate change alignment, I'm sure that is right, but would point out that one of the few Green Leavers I know well is also one of those who is most passionate in his concern about climate change. With climate change, it seems likely that the vast majority of climate change deniers are on the leave side. But since there are so few of them they won't be remotely representative of Leave voters. And probably not even of Leavers who care enough to make a big thing of it online. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,913
Member is Online
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 3, 2018 15:08:08 GMT
But 46% of leave voters wouldn't be happy to leave if it meant food price rises and 49% if it meant going into recession (those figures might also include don't knows - not clear how many from article). Given the closeness of the referendum result there is certainly enough there to shift the balance of public opinion IF either of those things were to happen. Otherwise I agree with Adam that for me it's never been about the economy but about the kind of Britain I want to see. But any shift in opinion ain't going to come from hardcore brexiteers or remainers. It'll come from the soft middle and things like the economy will matter to them. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 3, 2018 15:13:47 GMT
Not for me, and I think it is a mistake to think that is so for the majority of Remainers. The economy is the focus now because (a) there are fairly urgent economic issues looming up straight after exit. (b) a lot of Remainers (wrongly IMO) think "aha, they'll all change their minds when it goes pear-shaped and hits them in the pocket" (c) a lot of us think the govt is ballsing up the trade discussions, which are in the news now, so that's where the attack is made. (Some prominent Leave politicos seem to be focussing on the importance of being able to do our own trade deals post-Brexit too, which seems a bit odd as I'd not have thought this was vital for that many of the actual voters.) I've long felt that carlton43 is right in saying that Brexit is about two tribes with fundamentally different values going at each other and the hard core of Remain thinking perceives Brexit as being tied up to a backward looking, Imperial-nostalgic, xenophobic-bordering-on-racist mindset, with a subset of ultra-Thatcherite slash-and-burners waiting to take advantage, and a lingering suspicion that it's something to do with Trump and Putin. It's one of those issues which attracts completely unconnected issues - e.g. it's my bet that attitudes to climate change would align relatively closely (though not perfectly) to attitudes to Brexit. I'm sure you could have a good go at debunking that but I'm also pretty sure that's the perception out there; and it's what worries and energises Continuity Remainers a sight more than any worry that the economy might go up or down a bit for a few years. If Leavers could either "detoxify" Brexit from some of those perceptions or deliver on some of their own "other issues" - say, a genuine sense that the ordinary person really had regained a bit of control from faceless authority, or that process was noticeably more democratic, then Brexit could be successful irrespective of the economics (within reason). So that’s how you perceive me! No not really! One of the great things about this place is that it brings you into some contact with your political opponents and gives them a chance to set out their views in some detail, and also to talk about other off-topic things that help you see them as a decent human being and not just an enemy. But if you went into the middle of one of those pro-EU rallies and asked what they thought your average Leaver believed in, I bet they'd come up with something along those lines. And of course it's never hard to find someone who confirms your prejudices about virtually anyone if you're looking for it. |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Sept 3, 2018 15:42:59 GMT
But 46% of leave voters wouldn't be happy to leave if it meant food price rises and 49% if it meant going into recession (those figures might also include don't knows - not clear how many from article). Given the closeness of the referendum result there is certainly enough there to shift the balance of public opinion IF either of those things were to happen. Otherwise I agree with Adam that for me it's never been about the economy but about the kind of Britain I want to see. But any shift in opinion ain't going to come from hardcore brexiteers or remainers. It'll come from the soft middle and things like the economy will matter to them. I was talking more about the utterances of Remainer politicians. Motives on both sides were hugely mixed. |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 3, 2018 15:57:13 GMT
Yep, this is the case, and Carlton's later post supports it. If Remainers through it was all about the economy today, some of those on the laft would undoubtedly be Leavers. On Adam's point about climate change alignment, I'm sure that is right, but would point out that one of the few Green Leavers I know well is also one of those who is most passionate in his concern about climate change. With climate change, it seems likely that the vast majority of climate change deniers are on the leave side. But since there are so few of them they won't be remotely representative of Leave voters. And probably not even of Leavers who care enough to make a big thing of it online. I have no means of knowing greenchristian but I don't think you are correct. By 'Deniers' one is considering a very broad spectrum of position from the outright 'Boondocks' deny any warming, deny the causes completely and assert it is all a scam..........through to subtly nuanced theories of the warming being caused by others means, a complex of causes, or even holding off an Ice Age onset. The commonality here and the connection to the thread being a disdain for the collective imposed opinion of experts and the authorities. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 29, 2018 14:49:55 GMT
(Last poll was 14-16th Aug)
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Oct 29, 2018 15:00:56 GMT
Bloody hell
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 29, 2018 15:18:33 GMT
This may or may not be sound or correct, but it is in line with my own analysis and thinking about the short/medium term trends of voter re-alignment. I would expect this to occur in steps rather than on a continuum, and with fraying to Labour and the minors between such steps.
Where I see the real damage to be taking place for Labour is in differential distribution of potential Conservative vote gains and Labour vote losses. If my analysis is correct Labour is likely to shed a shoal of seats and to pick up far fewer, whilst also consolidating much larger majorities on its urban core seats.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 29, 2018 15:41:17 GMT
They've only done three polls to date:
July
Con 37%
Lab 42%
LD 7%
August
Con 37%
Lab 40%
LD 8%
Oct
Con 43%
Lab 40%
LD 6%
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