Deltapoll

[Deleted]

Feb 23, 2019 22:30:15 GMT tonygreaves said:

Not to be taken very seriously but I don't think we will worry too much about a poll like this since our next serious elections are the locals in May and there won't be any TIGger candidates. And since we are not likely to be fighting them in any (or perhaps many) constituencies, we can ride the TIGger electorally for the time being. (Yes, I know...)

The party which ought to be worrying very seriously is the Labour party.

im good thanks

[Deleted]

Feb 23, 2019 22:50:08 GMT middyman said:

Feb 23, 2019 22:30:15 GMT tonygreaves said:

Not to be taken very seriously but I don't think we will worry too much about a poll like this since our next serious elections are the locals in May and there won't be any TIGger candidates. And since we are not likely to be fighting them in any (or perhaps many) constituencies, we can ride the TIGger electorally for the time being. (Yes, I know...)

The party which ought to be worrying very seriously is the Labour party.

St Jeremy’s star still shines brightly, and in light of recent performances, may it long continue to do so.

you just worry about yourself

[casualobserver]

Feb 23, 2019 22:30:15 GMT tonygreaves said:

The party which ought to be worrying very seriously is the Labour party.

I understand what you mean despite it being counterintuitive seeing that your support in this poll is given as 5% whilst Labour's on 31%!

The two recent TIG inclusive polls, this one and opinium, show significant similarities in the Conservative lead over Labour (8%) and the level of LibDem support (5%). This poll undoubtedly only represents a transient position - the question is whither we are transiting. But the fall in LibDem reported share demonstrates just how much LibDem support is a 'protest vote' which will seek the best home to express itself.

[Vibe]

Feb 23, 2019 22:30:15 GMT tonygreaves said:

Not to be taken very seriously but I don't think we will worry too much about a poll like this since our next serious elections are the locals in May and there won't be any TIGger candidates. And since we are not likely to be fighting them in any (or perhaps many) constituencies, we can ride the TIGger electorally for the time being. (Yes, I know...)

The party which ought to be worrying very seriously is the Labour party.

I really would love to see them name theirselves the "tigger" party. Vote winner for sure.
All this hype for a party that doesn't exist. Unless they get traction , they will soon drift in peoples' memories.

Local elections are a good yard stick. If Labour get trounced, like polls are suggesting, then hard times for Corbes.

[Vibe]

Feb 24, 2019 5:19:02 GMT casualobserver said:

Feb 23, 2019 22:30:15 GMT tonygreaves said:

The party which ought to be worrying very seriously is the Labour party.

I understand what you mean despite it being counterintuitive seeing that your support in this poll is given as 5% whilst Labour's on 31%!

The two recent TIG inclusive polls, this one and opinium, show significant similarities in the Conservative lead over Labour (8%) and the level of LibDem support (5%). This poll undoubtedly only represents a transient position - the question is whither we are transiting. But the fall in LibDem reported share demonstrates just how much LibDem support is a 'protest vote' which will seek the best home to express itself.

Good points, but the TIG vote will return home if we had an election tomorrow. So these polls with TIG are pointless, unless TIG is a party.

If an election were announced tomorrow, how many candidates would UKIP be able to muster and where would their vote go where candidates don't stand?

[justin124]

Excluding TIG the figures were Con 43 Lab 36 LD 6

[polupolu]

Feb 24, 2019 5:19:02 GMT casualobserver said:

Feb 23, 2019 22:30:15 GMT tonygreaves said:

The party which ought to be worrying very seriously is the Labour party.

I understand what you mean despite it being counterintuitive seeing that your support in this poll is given as 5% whilst Labour's on 31%!

The two recent TIG inclusive polls, this one and opinium, show significant similarities in the Conservative lead over Labour (8%) and the level of LibDem support (5%). This poll undoubtedly only represents a transient position - the question is whither we are transiting. But the fall in LibDem reported share demonstrates just how much LibDem support is a 'protest vote' which will seek the best home to express itself.

The Lib and Lib Dem vote has always been made up partly of people who dislike both main parties.  When I first got into politics (before the SDP split) my guess was that maybe one in fourteen or fifteen people are actually liberals - and some of them are in other parties.  That was partly based on experiences canvassing and partly on learning about what happens in other countries.

You will also find that a chunk of Conservative voters are not true believers but rather dislike or distrust Labour and vice versa.

What I think should worry politicians in general - especially in the two big parties - is that there is so much dissatisfaction with the entire political set-up (and in which they are the main players and so have most to lose).

[The Bishop]

Given that level of dissatisfaction (which I certainly do not dispute) it can be argued the TIG scores in this weekend's polls aren't actually all that? At present they are pretty much a blank slate which people browned off with the other parties can project all sorts of their own desires upon.

[AdminSTB]

Feb 24, 2019 10:18:13 GMT justin124 said:

Excluding TIG the figures were Con 43 Lab 36 LD 6

I understand those who say TIG has not yet been created as a political party, and as such should not be included in poll results.
But at the same time it is no bad thing that they are at least hypothetically included - if necessary as part of a separate poll question - on the understanding that by the next general election there probably will have been a new party formed.

Back in 1981, the Limehouse Declaration was made on 25th January, and the SDP was formed on 26th March. It will be interesting to see how long it will take for a new party to be formed this time round. I'm not sure how the opinion pollsters approached the issue of embryonic parties back at that time; @markpack's spreadsheets give the figures for Con, Lab, Lib, but the latter appeared to have increased their support from 17% to 32% in that time frame before the SDP had actually been officially created. And it wasn't until 16th June that the Alliance was formed.

[Deleted]

Feb 24, 2019 5:19:02 GMT casualobserver said:

Feb 23, 2019 22:30:15 GMT tonygreaves said:

The party which ought to be worrying very seriously is the Labour party.

I understand what you mean despite it being counterintuitive seeing that your support in this poll is given as 5% whilst Labour's on 31%!

The two recent TIG inclusive polls, this one and opinium, show significant similarities in the Conservative lead over Labour (8%) and the level of LibDem support (5%). This poll undoubtedly only represents a transient position - the question is whither we are transiting. But the fall in LibDem reported share demonstrates just how much LibDem support is a 'protest vote' which will seek the best home to express itself.

it's less of a protest vote and a sign how toxic the party is that they struggle to reach the teens while up to 14% of people would rather vote for a party that is not a party

[casualobserver]

Feb 24, 2019 10:36:24 GMT The Bishop said:

Given that level of dissatisfaction (which I certainly do not dispute) it can be argued the TIG scores in this weekend's polls aren't actually all that? At present they are pretty much a blank slate which people browned off with the other parties can project all sorts of their own desires upon.

I tend to agree with your surprise that TIG is not scoring higher. But it may be very early days yet, and they may capture more of the public imagination once more voters have even heard of them.

It does strike me, however, that they failed adequately to plan for and capitalise on the initial breakaways, which may well prove to have been their greatest opportunity for free and positive publicity to begin gaining traction.

Remember, the SDP had BIG NAMES when it was founded. The Tiggers have hardly enticed the biggest beasts out of the Hundred Acre Wood to come and join them.

[polupolu]

Feb 24, 2019 10:42:41 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Feb 24, 2019 5:19:02 GMT casualobserver said:

I understand what you mean despite it being counterintuitive seeing that your support in this poll is given as 5% whilst Labour's on 31%!

The two recent TIG inclusive polls, this one and opinium, show significant similarities in the Conservative lead over Labour (8%) and the level of LibDem support (5%). This poll undoubtedly only represents a transient position - the question is whither we are transiting. But the fall in LibDem reported share demonstrates just how much LibDem support is a 'protest vote' which will seek the best home to express itself.

it's less of a protest vote and a sign how toxic the party is that they struggle to reach the teens while up to 14% of people would rather vote for a party that is not a party

Yes - the Coalition did us a lot of harm electorally.

If MPs were elected on a proportional basis, dropping like this would have a big impact.

In the current system, though, our representation is less correlated to our standing in the opinion polls.  Basically, we only win where we are perceived to be the main challenger to Labour or the Conservatives (though obviously that is easier if our poll ratings are 20% rather than 5%).  The same is not true for Labour - which I think may have been part of the point.

[Vibe]

Feb 24, 2019 10:36:24 GMT The Bishop said:

Given that level of dissatisfaction (which I certainly do not dispute) it can be argued the TIG scores in this weekend's polls aren't actually all that? At present they are pretty much a blank slate which people browned off with the other parties can project all sorts of their own desires upon.

Agreed. As soon as they get some policies and disappear from the media spotlight, they will soon decline in the polls. They do need a lot more momentum to stay this popular.

[polupolu]

Feb 24, 2019 10:59:13 GMT Vibe said:

Feb 24, 2019 10:36:24 GMT The Bishop said:

Given that level of dissatisfaction (which I certainly do not dispute) it can be argued the TIG scores in this weekend's polls aren't actually all that? At present they are pretty much a blank slate which people browned off with the other parties can project all sorts of their own desires upon.

Agreed. As soon as they get some policies and disappear from the media spotlight, they will soon decline in the polls. They do need a lot more momentum to stay this popular.

I envy your certainty.

Personally I have no certainty as to what is going to happen. 

Andrew Rawnsley today says: "these MPs speak like people who have escaped from an abusive relationship" - and I think that is right. 

I am not sure the TIGs know what they want, and I have no idea if they will actually achieve it.

I suspect they will lose their seats, and the red-blue duopoly will survive this - but things are fragmenting in all sorts of ways at the moment.  The perception of both the incompetence of government ministers and the intolerance/nastiness/head-banging-ideology within Labour seems to be growing.  These are not normal times. 

[justin124]

Feb 24, 2019 10:41:53 GMT AdminSTB said:

Feb 24, 2019 10:18:13 GMT justin124 said:

Excluding TIG the figures were Con 43 Lab 36 LD 6

I understand those who say TIG has not yet been created as a political party, and as such should not be included in poll results.
But at the same time it is no bad thing that they are at least hypothetically included - if necessary as part of a separate poll question - on the understanding that by the next general election there probably will have been a new party formed.

Back in 1981, the Limehouse Declaration was made on 25th January, and the SDP was formed on 26th March. It will be interesting to see how long it will take for a new party to be formed this time round. I'm not sure how the opinion pollsters approached the issue of embryonic parties back at that time; @markpack's spreadsheets give the figures for Con, Lab, Lib, but the latter appeared to have increased their support from 17% to 32% in that time frame before the SDP had actually been officially created. And it wasn't until 16th June that the Alliance was formed.

I recall hypothetical polling questions asked at the time of the SDP launch in late March 1981. The Gang of Four were touring the country addressing crowds in overspilling halls .The SDP alone was registering 25% - 30% in hypothetical polls in March/April that year.

[Deleted]

[tonygreaves]

Two dodgy polling companies. Anyway what is LDM?

[Vibe]

Feb 24, 2019 23:22:18 GMT tonygreaves said:

Two dodgy polling companies. Anyway what is LDM?

Liberal Democrat Maniacs? 😉

[Deleted]

[manchesterman]

1 or 2 more polls like that would kill off thoughts PM may have had of a snap GE!