|
|
Post by gibbon on Aug 8, 2023 8:04:27 GMT
Are the Conservatives getting votes from Reform as a result of Braverman's boats policy? Is there a switch from Labour to Liberal Democrat in blue wall seats and why are there two net gains and three net losses in these figures? Are more people just saying Don't Know?
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Aug 8, 2023 8:22:38 GMT
Are the Conservatives getting votes from Reform as a result of Braverman's boats policy? Is there a switch from Labour to Liberal Democrat in blue wall seats and why are there two net gains and three net losses in these figures? Are more people just saying Don't Know? And is there Honey still for Tea? |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Aug 8, 2023 8:41:16 GMT
Are the Conservatives getting votes from Reform as a result of Braverman's boats policy? Is there a switch from Labour to Liberal Democrat in blue wall seats and why are there two net gains and three net losses in these figures? Are more people just saying Don't Know? And is there Honey still for Tea? honey's off, dear. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Aug 8, 2023 8:43:27 GMT
The answer to the first two questions is most likely No. It's random sample variation in the case of the latter. In the case of the former, it's pretty clear from known electoral behaviour that Reform are routinely overestimated in polls, especially in those of Opinium. This looks like a reversion to the true picture.
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Aug 8, 2023 8:46:24 GMT
And is there Honey still for Tea? honey's off, dear. Ohh! Then I shall have to fritter my time away on something spicy. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Aug 8, 2023 8:51:03 GMT
Are the Conservatives getting votes from Reform as a result of Braverman's boats policy? Is there a switch from Labour to Liberal Democrat in blue wall seats and why are there two net gains and three net losses in these figures? Are more people just saying Don't Know? And is there Honey still for Tea? Polls close at ten to three. |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Aug 8, 2023 8:54:08 GMT
And is there Honey still for Tea? Polls close at ten to three. A tad early for the graveyard vote! |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Aug 8, 2023 9:13:00 GMT
Polls close at ten to three. A tad early for the graveyard vote! Voters in a Country Churchyard? That is a Gray area. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
|
Post by graham on Aug 8, 2023 9:51:47 GMT
The answer to the first two questions is most likely No. It's random sample variation in the case of the latter. In the case of the former, it's pretty clear from known electoral behaviour that Reform are routinely overestimated in polls, especially in those of Opinium. This looks like a reversion to the true picture. Indeed - the combined Green and Reform vote is 8% - whereas Opinium has it at a highly unlikely 17%. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 8, 2023 10:26:47 GMT
17% is definitely too high, but equally 8% may be a bit on the low side.
Whatever else you think of them, Reform continue to insist they will stand candidates in most seats at the next GE.
As long as that remains the case, they can't be totally discounted as a possible factor.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Aug 8, 2023 10:47:49 GMT
it's one thing to say they can't be totally discounted, which I agree is the case. It's another to say they will get 10%. I find that near-impossible to believe.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 8, 2023 10:49:09 GMT
Yes, the only possibility of that (and it is no more than possible) is if Farage does indeed make his long speculated about comeback.
|
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Aug 13, 2023 10:33:25 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Aug 22, 2023 16:58:38 GMT
First Labour 50 for a while I think. This lot are very very bouncy
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 50% (+4)
CON: 25% (-4)
LDM: 9% (-3)
GRN: 7% (+2)
RFM: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @deltapolluk, 17-21 Aug.
Changes w/ 9-11 Aug.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Aug 22, 2023 17:21:29 GMT
Yes this is a bit of a Bobby Vee job.
|
|
|
|
Post by swanarcadian on Aug 22, 2023 21:38:16 GMT
Labour lead up from 17 to 25? Now that’s brutal.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 23, 2023 10:13:25 GMT
Pollsters not just bouncing around, but in different directions? It must be August.
|
|
|
|
Post by swanarcadian on Aug 29, 2023 11:54:00 GMT
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 29, 2023 12:11:21 GMT
And before that 21 and 17, in other words a lot of noise but maybe mostly just noise.
|
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Aug 29, 2023 12:21:41 GMT
Let's just say deltapoll have a labour lead of 20
|
|
