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Post by batman on Aug 29, 2023 14:24:49 GMT
Indeed. If a pollster repeatedly shows big swings in either direction without there being any discernible explanation for it, it usually means that it is no more than rather extravagant sample variation and that we should better look at what the average of their polls in recent weeks shows for a more accurate picture. The last poll was clearly an exaggeration of Labour's lead, large though it still is.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 5, 2023 10:20:26 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 46% (=)
CON: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (-2)
RFM: 7% (+2)
GRN: 5% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @deltapolluk, 1-4 Sep.
Changes w/ 24-25 Aug.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 19, 2023 11:58:03 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+1)
CON: 23% (-5)
LDM: 10% (=)
GRN: 7% (=)
RFM: 6% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)
Via @deltapolluk, 11-15 Sep.
Changes w/ 1-4 Sep.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 19, 2023 13:08:39 GMT
Could be more noise, but the Tories look to be heading for a grim winter generally so who knows.
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Post by borisminor on Sept 25, 2023 11:53:41 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Sept 25, 2023 12:04:58 GMT
They are too bouncy. Although that poll looks like a correction of their last one. The Conservatives have gone 28-23-28 this month with them.
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Post by batman on Sept 25, 2023 12:20:48 GMT
Yes I agree. I am sure that public opinion at the moment is less volatile than this pollster is finding. No doubt there will be another illusory bounce back towards Labour in their next poll.
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Post by grumpyguy on Sept 25, 2023 17:30:14 GMT
They are too bouncy. Although that poll looks like a correction of their last one. The Conservatives have gone 28-23-28 this month with them. One contributing factor to this may be their inconsistent sampling size: of their last 8 polls, 2 have been approx. 1000, 3 x 1500 and 2 x2000. Another puzzling (though not significant) thing is that they still prompt for UKIP. You can even out the bounce by taking averages for the parties, and derive some useful information. So, Con average has increased from 26 to 27 from July 28th to Sept 25th, Lab down from 47 to 46, LD up from 10 to 10.5, remainder from 15 to nearly 18. (Figures are from Wikipedia, and are rounded, so don't quite add up. "Remainder " is simply because it's easier, not to cause offence). All of which is within MOE, and goes to show, I reckon, that Deltapoll's variations hide an underlying stability. I'd love to know the back-story to the sampling size issue. I hope it's sorted out well before the GE. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 3, 2023 12:48:57 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 44% (=)
CON: 26% (-2)
LDM: 12% (+2)
GRN: 6% (=)
RFM: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)
Via @deltapolluk, 29 Sep - 2 Oct.
Changes w/ 22-25 Sep.
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Post by gibbon on Oct 3, 2023 15:14:54 GMT
So much for the Conservative bounce back. After this week's conference we await with interest the weekend polls.
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 750
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Post by Clark on Oct 4, 2023 11:52:23 GMT
Do party conferences tend to have an affect on polling?
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Post by woollyliberal on Oct 4, 2023 14:23:30 GMT
Do party conferences tend to have an affect on polling? When YouGov did daily polling, you could see a little blip for each party a few days after their conference ended. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 10, 2023 11:23:36 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 43% (-1)
CON: 28% (+2)
LDM: 12% (=)
RFM: 7% (+2)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @deltapolluk, 5-7 Oct.
Changes w/ 29 Sep - 2 Oct.
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Post by andrewp on Oct 16, 2023 15:04:02 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+4)
CON: 27% (-1)
LDM: 10% (-2)
GRN: 6% (=)
RFM: 5% (-2)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @deltapolluk, 13-16 Oct.
Changes w/ 5-7 Oct.
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Post by batman on Oct 16, 2023 17:47:40 GMT
Do party conferences tend to have an affect on polling? the latest poll here suggests yes. though not quite all polls are showing that after the Labour conference. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 23, 2023 11:46:37 GMT
A rare non bouncy poll from Deltapoll
Con 27% (-)
Lab 47% (-)
Lib Dem 10% (-)
Other 17% (+1)
Fieldwork: 19th-20th October 2023
Sample: 1,036 GB adults
(Changes from 13th - 16th October 2023)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 24, 2023 12:21:03 GMT
Wot no bouncy?
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Post by andrewp on Nov 6, 2023 19:09:07 GMT
LAB: 45% (-1)
CON: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
RFM: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @deltapolluk, 3-6 Nov.
Changes w/ 27-30 Oct.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 14, 2023 13:03:07 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 28% (+4)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-1)
RFM: 4% (-2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @deltapolluk, 10-13 Nov.
Changes w/ 3-6 Nov.
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Post by batman on Nov 14, 2023 17:57:12 GMT
bouncy bouncy
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