Deltapoll

[iang]

Though on the other hand, the others on that list were subsequently recovered, and that is also the case with one or two others, like Sutton & Cheam and Richmond Park. On a quick count I make it that from Orpington in 1962 to 2019, the Lib Dems gained 30 seats in by elections (counting B&R both times) and held 14 of them at the following election. So success rate of roughly 50% which doesn't seem bad

[andrewp]

Just on the conversation about parallels to 1997 and can the Lib Dem’s hold the BE gains, I think we need to remember that of the 3 big by election gains in 1992-97,unlike the current batch,  2 were in seats that were very much in the ball park of seats that the Lib Dem’s might have gained any way in 1997. Newbury had a notional majority of 18.8% in 1997 so was very similar to eg Harrogate or Carshalton, both gains. Eastleigh had a notional majority of 21.2% which was similar to Sutton and Cheam, a gain.

All 4 successor seats to the by election gains in the current parliament have much bigger notional majorities for the Lib Dem’s to overturn and are much more in line with Christchurch in 1997. The Lib Dem’s need to do much better than they did in these seats in 1997 to hold North Shropshire. Not to say that they won’t hold them but they are much harder on paper. The 2 successors to Somerton and Frome are closer.

1992-97 by election notional majorities in 1997

Newbury 18.8% - result LD hold by 15%
Eastleigh 21.2% - result LD hold by 1%
Christchurch 40.8% - result Con regain by 4%

Current by election seats notional majorities

Chesham and Amersham -33%
North Shropshire - 40% over Lab, 52% over the LDs
Tiverton and Minehead-40%
Honiton and Sidmouth-45%

Mid Bedfordshire- 47%
Glastonbury and Somerton 24%
Frome - 28.8%

[carlton43]

Jun 27, 2023 7:09:06 GMT iang said:

Though on the other hand, the others on that list were subsequently recovered, and that is also the case with one or two others, like Sutton & Cheam and Richmond Park. On a quick count I make it that from Orpington in 1962 to 2019, the Lib Dems gained 30 seats in by elections (counting B&R both times) and held 14 of them at the following election. So success rate of roughly 50% which doesn't seem bad

But it is not 'Most' is it?  It is less than half.

When people elect a LD they are having a laugh, making a crude point and delivering a rebuff; they are not making a long-considered and rational political choice based on policies and an internal change of heart and world outlook.

You chaps all leap up and down and make libation to the new dawn and awaking to your blandishments; whilst the rest of us yawn and remember than we must put out own dustbin tomorrow.

[Tony Otim]

Jun 27, 2023 6:49:02 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 27, 2023 6:35:58 GMT bigfatron said:

Actually, seats gained by the Lib Dems at by-elections are almost always held in the subsequent GE. I believe that Christchurch and Brecon & Radnor are the only two exceptions out of more than a dozen by-election gains?
it's the election after that which often turns out to be a problem...

Going back a bit to the 1980s and 1990s , not really- Ryedale, Portsmouth South, Kincardine and Deeside, Ribble Valley, Eastbourne were all lost at the subsequent GE

Or more recently Leicester South or Dunfermline and West Fife?

[bigfatron]

Jun 27, 2023 6:49:02 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 27, 2023 6:35:58 GMT bigfatron said:

Actually, seats gained by the Lib Dems at by-elections are almost always held in the subsequent GE. I believe that Christchurch and Brecon & Radnor are the only two exceptions out of more than a dozen by-election gains?
it's the election after that which often turns out to be a problem...

Going back a bit to the 1980s and 1990s , not really- Ryedale, Portsmouth South, Kincardine and Deeside, Ribble Valley, Eastbourne were all lost at the subsequent GE

I confess that I had completely forgotten that Eastbourne was lost and then regained - my memory of those days is getting hazy!
I make that eleven held and five lost since the formation of the Liberal Democrats - so rather more likely to hold than lose.
interesting that all three gains made in the 1987 - 1992 parliament were lost - it rather highlights the effectiveness of Major's 1991 Tory re-set; it will be interesting if Sunak can pull off anything like a currently unimaginable repetition

[iain]

Jun 27, 2023 7:09:30 GMT andrewp said:

Just on the conversation about parallels to 1997 and can the Lib Dem’s hold the BE gains, I think we need to remember that of the 3 big by election gains in 1992-97,unlike the current batch,  2 were in seats that were very much in the ball park of seats that the Lib Dem’s might have gained any way in 1997. Newbury had a notional majority of 18.8% in 1997 so was very similar to eg Harrogate or Carshalton, both gains. Eastleigh had a notional majority of 21.2% which was similar to Sutton and Cheam, a gain.

All 4 successor seats to the by election gains in the current parliament have much bigger notional majorities for the Lib Dem’s to overturn and are much more in line with Christchurch in 1997. The Lib Dem’s need to do much better than they did in these seats in 1997 to hold North Shropshire. Not to say that they won’t hold them but they are much harder on paper. The 2 successors to Somerton and Frome are closer.

1992-97 by election notional majorities in 1997

Newbury 18.8% - result LD hold by 15%
Eastleigh 21.2% - result LD hold by 1%
Christchurch 40.8% - result Con regain by 4%

Current by election seats notional majorities

Chesham and Amersham -33%
North Shropshire - 40% over Lab, 52% over the LDs
Tiverton and Minehead-40%
Honiton and Sidmouth-45%

Mid Bedfordshire- 47%
Glastonbury and Somerton 24%
Frome - 28.8%

I have tended to agree with this view, though given the party's starting point and the type of by-elections, I'd argue that February 1974 is a better parallel. That parliament the Liberals won:

Rochdale - 11.2% - result Lib hold by 17.3%
Isle of Ely - 19.8% over Lab, no Lib candidate - result Lib hold by 14.8%
Berwick upon Tweed - 23.3% over Lab,  28.7% over Lib - result Lib hold by 1.3%
Sutton & Cheam - 30.8% over Lab, 43.5% over Lib - result Con regain by 3.4%
Ripon - 34.5% over Lab, 47.6% over Lib - result Con regain by 10.2%

Another more optimistic data point for the Lib Dems would be Brent East, held by Labour by 45% over the Tories and 52.6% over the Lib Dems in 2001, but won by the Lib Dems by 5.4% in the by-election and 8.7% in the 2005 general.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jun 27, 2023 8:17:12 GMT bigfatron said:

Jun 27, 2023 6:49:02 GMT andrewp said:

Going back a bit to the 1980s and 1990s , not really- Ryedale, Portsmouth South, Kincardine and Deeside, Ribble Valley, Eastbourne were all lost at the subsequent GE

I confess that I had completely forgotten that Eastbourne was lost and then regained - my memory of those days is getting hazy!
I make that eleven held and five lost since the formation of the Liberal Democrats - so rather more likely to hold than lose.
interesting that all three gains made in the 1987 - 1992 parliament were lost - it rather highlights the effectiveness of Major's 1991 Tory re-set; it will be interesting if Sunak can pull off anything like a currently unimaginable repetition

1987-1992 was unusual in that all the Tory by election losses were regained at the 1992 election(Vale of Glamorgan only just)

[The Bishop]

Jun 27, 2023 10:01:18 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Jun 27, 2023 8:17:12 GMT bigfatron said:

I confess that I had completely forgotten that Eastbourne was lost and then regained - my memory of those days is getting hazy!
I make that eleven held and five lost since the formation of the Liberal Democrats - so rather more likely to hold than lose.
interesting that all three gains made in the 1987 - 1992 parliament were lost - it rather highlights the effectiveness of Major's 1991 Tory re-set; it will be interesting if Sunak can pull off anything like a currently unimaginable repetition

1987-1992 was unusual in that all the Tory by election losses were regained at the 1992 election(Vale of Glamorgan only just)

Along with the "poll turnaround" then (though we now know the polls were likely a bit "off" all along) that was something that made a lot of Tories remarkably complacent about 1997, and in some cases convinced they would still win right up to polling day.

Indeed the 1992 GE is a talisman still being prayed in their aid even now (noticeable it gets cited more than even 2015, which was similar in quite a few respects)

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jun 27, 2023 10:08:57 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 27, 2023 10:01:18 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

1987-1992 was unusual in that all the Tory by election losses were regained at the 1992 election(Vale of Glamorgan only just)

Along with the "poll turnaround" then (though we now know the polls were likely a bit "off" all along) that was something that made a lot of Tories remarkably complacent about 1997, and in some cases convinced they would still win right up to polling day.

Indeed the 1992 GE is a talisman still being prayed in their aid even now (noticeable it gets cited more than even 2015, which was similar in quite a few respects)

Yes i agree it's odd 1992 isn't cited, of course in 1992 the Tories were trying to hold on to a majority,2015 they were hoping to gain one but you can see the parallels

[andrewp]

LAB: 48% (+1)
CON: 25% (+1)
LDM: 10% (-2)
GRN: 5% (+1)
RFM: 5% (-2)
SNP: 4% (=)

Via @deltapolluk, 29 Jun - 3 Jul.
Changes w/ 23-26 Jun.

[robert1]

Con 28      (+3)
Lab 46       (-2)
LD     9       (-1)
Oth 18      (+1)

Fieldwork 7.7-10.7

[r34t]

Jul 10, 2023 14:24:24 GMT robert1 said:

Con 28      (+3)
Lab 46       (-2)
LD     9       (-1)
Oth 18      (+1)

Fieldwork 7.7-10.7

Well, that makes sense …

[The Bishop]

Bouncy pollster is bouncy, back with more when we get it.

[andrewp]

Bouncy bouncy from a bouncy pollster

LAB: 48% (+2)
CON: 24% (-4)
LDM: 11% (+2)
RFM: 6% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)Fieldwork: 14th - 17th July 2023

[batman]

thank you Andrew, you have reminded me of the Bobby Vee (I think) song.

[finsobruce]

Jul 18, 2023 12:12:44 GMT batman said:

thank you Andrew, you have reminded me of the Bobby Vee (I think) song.

Sung by Vee, written by Gene Pitney (and Aaron Schroder).

[batman]

Pitney wrote quite a lot of hits for others (another is Hello Mary Lou), but he didn't write all of his own hits.

[andrewp]

Con 26% (+2)
Lab 49% (+1)
Lib Dem 9% (-2)
Other 16% (-1) - Green 5, RefUK 4, SNP 3, PC 2, UKIP 2
Fieldwork: 21st-24th July 2023
Sample: 1,482 GB adults
(Changes from 14th-17th July 2023)

[swanarcadian]

[andrewp]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 47% (-1)
CON: 26% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-1)
RFM: 4% (-2)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @deltapolluk, 4-7 Aug.
Changes w/ 28-31 Jul.