timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 19, 2022 22:40:45 GMT
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Post by lackeroftalent on Nov 20, 2022 10:19:41 GMT
15% others in poll (19th Nov) was:-
Green 4% -2 Reform 4% +1 SNP 3% -2 UKIP 2% - PC 0% -1 Some other party 2% +2
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,804
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 20, 2022 12:22:01 GMT
15% others in poll (19th Nov) was:- Green 4% -2 Reform 4% +1 SNP 3% -2 UKIP 2% - PC 0% -1 Some other party 2% +2 Intriguing one there, mostly disaffected Tories perhaps?
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Post by lackeroftalent on Nov 29, 2022 22:25:53 GMT
28th Nov
Lab 48% -3 Con 30% +5 LDm 10% +1 Rfm 4% - Grn 3% -1 SNP 3% - UKIP 1% -1 PC 0% - Some other party 1% -1
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 6, 2022 10:39:07 GMT
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Post by lackeroftalent on Dec 6, 2022 16:37:57 GMT
5th Dec
Lab 48% - Con 28% -2 LDm 10% - Grn 4% +1 Rfm 4% - SNP 4% +1 UKIP 1% - PC 1% +1 Some other party 0% -1
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Post by andrewp on Dec 13, 2022 12:23:56 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,369
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 13, 2022 14:32:29 GMT
There is essentially no way that a 13pt lead produced by a swing in excess of 12pts would produce a hung parliament. FPTP just does not work like that.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 13, 2022 15:00:40 GMT
There is essentially no way that a 13pt lead produced by a swing in excess of 12pts would produce a hung parliament. FPTP just does not work like that. Agreed even on a uniform swing they should have a majority close to 20.
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 13, 2022 15:42:28 GMT
That projection is quite close to my gut feeling. The most recent political polls seem to be going in different directions for each organization which calls into question their models, their quota selection, and the febrile reaction of the electorate. Polling at present is close to being utterly pointless. Nothing matters or has any utility until an election is actually called whilst we are in these conditions.
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Post by lackeroftalent on Dec 13, 2022 16:14:46 GMT
Since I don't have to post the full poll this time, have we seen that cross-tab by age.
18-24 Lab 59%, Grn 27%, LDm 5%, Con 4%, Rfm 3%
I know it is meaningless, but it tickled me all the same.
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 14, 2022 8:58:18 GMT
That projection is quite close to my gut feeling. The most recent political polls seem to be going in different directions for each organization which calls into question their models, their quota selection, and the febrile reaction of the electorate. Polling at present is close to being utterly pointless. Nothing matters or has any utility until an election is actually called whilst we are in these conditions. The value of polling is to show the overall trend, not to act as an election result predictor. If different samples, weighting, and other minor methodological differences lead to different patterns in headline figures that demonstrates that pollsters aren't fixing the data to bring their polls in line with either other pollsters or some perceived narrative. As long as they aren't telling completely incompatible stories (e.g. one showing a massive Labour lead, another showing a massive Conservative one) then they tell us something about the state of public opinion (albeit not one as precise as the headline figures are often taken to be).
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Post by batman on Dec 14, 2022 9:44:31 GMT
That projection is quite close to my gut feeling. The most recent political polls seem to be going in different directions for each organization which calls into question their models, their quota selection, and the febrile reaction of the electorate. Polling at present is close to being utterly pointless. Nothing matters or has any utility until an election is actually called whilst we are in these conditions. I don't agree that they're pointless, they do have some effect in terms of party morale & even mood in the electorate up to a point. However, one Labour friend told me last night he thought that there are probably too many polls at the moment, and he may have a point, though in the end if the clients want to pay up, they get their polls.
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 14, 2022 10:16:56 GMT
one Labour friend told me last night he thought that there are probably too many polls at the moment Anyone with any interest in polls will tell you you can't have too many polls.
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 14, 2022 11:09:31 GMT
one Labour friend told me last night he thought that there are probably too many polls at the moment Anyone with any interest in polls will tell you you can't have too many polls. I'm old enough to remember waiting up until 10pm for the daily yougov polls
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 14, 2022 12:58:45 GMT
There is essentially no way that a 13pt lead produced by a swing in excess of 12pts would produce a hung parliament. FPTP just does not work like that. The tweet says that the seat estimate is not by Deltapoll but by Stats For Lefties, which IIRC subscribes to the "anyone else but Starmer would be smashing this" view. That said, I think there is something in what carlton43 says about the nature of any polling this far out from a GE. For example, I don't see the Greens getting 6% in an actual GE.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,804
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 14, 2022 14:05:24 GMT
Tbf to them on this one occasion, SfL has been consistent over time in using UNS as the basis for their poll projections.
I just don't think it is that much use when the (in many ways unusual) last GE is used as a backdrop, and especially not in the context of a massive pro-Labour swing.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,077
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 14, 2022 14:16:04 GMT
That projection is quite close to my gut feeling. The most recent political polls seem to be going in different directions for each organization which calls into question their models, their quota selection, and the febrile reaction of the electorate. Polling at present is close to being utterly pointless. Nothing matters or has any utility until an election is actually called whilst we are in these conditions. Leaving aside the debate on the usefulness of polls that sort of a hypothetical result it's a kind of result i could live with ie Lab minority govt on 'probation',one that could follow the Wilsonian tactic of a follow up election a la 1966/Oct74
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,369
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 14, 2022 14:16:49 GMT
UNS is pretty useful when there's a degree of stability from election to election: there will always be deviant results (and a lot!) but they tend to balance out. When there isn't that degree of stability then, well, hmm.
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 15, 2022 17:10:09 GMT
I always find this an interesting thing. What share of the vote people expect the parties to get vs voting intention.
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