clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 15, 2022 20:41:04 GMT
I always find this an interesting thing. What share of the vote people expect the parties to get vs voting intention. It's always interesting to see what people think will happen, although it could suffer from a bit of cause or effect - do people expect a party to get 'x' because of their current VI or are people voting for a party because they expect them to get 'x' (especially in the cases of tactical voting, when the largest party isn't certain or a hung parliament is possible).
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 15, 2022 20:45:30 GMT
I always find this an interesting thing. What share of the vote people expect the parties to get vs voting intention. It's always interesting to see what people think will happen, although it could suffer from a bit of cause or effect - do people expect a party to get 'x' because of their current VI or are people voting for a party because they expect them to get 'x' (especially in the cases of tactical voting, when the largest party isn't certain or a hung parliament is possible). The question is usually "Party X got Y percent at the last election. What do you think they'll get now?" Given how few people follow opinion polls, I'm always surprised that their answer is as close as it is to current polling.
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Jan 9, 2023 13:18:32 GMT
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Post by lackeroftalent on Jan 9, 2023 21:27:04 GMT
Full result - Jan 9th
Lab 45% - Con 31% -1 LDm 9% +1 Grn 5% -1 Rfm 3% -1 SNP 3% - UKIP 2% +1 PC 0% - some other party 1% -
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Post by lackeroftalent on Jan 17, 2023 0:24:07 GMT
Jan 16th
Lab 45% - Con 29% -2 LDm 10% +1 Grn 5% - SNP 5% +2 Rfm 4% +1 UKIP 3% +1 PC 0% - some other party 0% -1
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Deltapoll
Jan 17, 2023 9:54:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 17, 2023 9:54:05 GMT
Jan 16th Lab 45% - Con 29% -2 LDm 10% +1 Grn 5% - SNP 5% +2 Rfm 4% +1 UKIP 3% +1 PC 0% - some other party 0% -1 I mean ukip on 3%..... jokes.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 17, 2023 9:57:09 GMT
Jan 16th Lab 45% - Con 29% -2 LDm 10% +1 Grn 5% - SNP 5% +2 Rfm 4% +1 UKIP 3% +1 PC 0% - some other party 0% -1 I mean ukip on 3%..... jokes. They still probably have greater brand recognition than Reform UK, so if there's any level of prompting it's not totally surprising...
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gibbon
Non-Aligned
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Post by gibbon on Jan 17, 2023 10:14:59 GMT
With energy prices rising and likely to be higher in April what effect will this have on the Conservative vote in the May elections? Are they hoping that the new rules on production of ID at polling stations put off opposition supporters going to the polls hep them save some seats? Will other parties make this an issue in their election literature and if so, what is the likely reaction?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 17, 2023 10:53:11 GMT
If you look at the maps of voters without a passport, it shows they are concentrated amongst older voters in safe Tory seats.
This malicious, cynical bit of legislation backfiring on them really would be one of the most delicious ironies ever.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 17, 2023 10:55:05 GMT
With energy prices rising and likely to be higher in April what effect will this have on the Conservative vote in the May elections? Are they hoping that the new rules on production of ID at polling stations put off opposition supporters going to the polls hep them save some seats? Will other parties make this an issue in their election literature and if so, what is the likely reaction? I’m not sure other parties will put it in their literature? I can’t see it being a vote winner. Two points I would make. As someone who has worked in polling stations for many years, I don’t think voter ID is the one way street that some people think. It is predominantly older people- ( and therefore more likely Conservative voters) who walk in and say Mrs Smith, Wellington Street and expect you to find them on the register. Younger people and EU nationals ( and therefore less likely Conservative voters) are hugely more likely to offer ID voluntarily - they are just used to doing it in every day life. Whilst I may have some issues with the list of types of acceptable ID to vote, I can’t get on a flight without ID, I can’t do anything in the bank without ID, I can’t use a Railcard without ID. It feels odd to me that voting is different.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 17, 2023 11:00:29 GMT
If this measure was meant sincerely and objectively, the government would be widely publicising the free ID available from councils and making it easily available.
They are not.
Whatever effects this actually has, the Tory motivation for bringing it in is visible from space.
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 17, 2023 11:17:56 GMT
I mean ukip on 3%..... jokes. They still probably have greater brand recognition than Reform UK, so if there's any level of prompting it's not totally surprising... There must be quite a few people who think that they are all the same thing and will go for whatever is mentioned.
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 17, 2023 11:50:00 GMT
If this measure was meant sincerely and objectively, the government would be widely publicising the free ID available from councils and making it easily available. They are not. Whatever effects this actually has, the Tory motivation for bringing it in is visible from space. And they would also have an offline method for applying for it.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,578
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Post by European Lefty on Jan 19, 2023 3:58:26 GMT
I confess I didn't even know there was any kind of free ID available. Of course if we had national ID cards, as they do in most of Europe, this wouldn't be an issue
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 19, 2023 8:47:05 GMT
I confess I didn't even know there was any kind of free ID available. Of course if we had national ID cards, as they do in most of Europe, this wouldn't be an issue There are parts of Labour that just cannot let ID cards go. The Tories introduce mandatory voting ID to suppress Labour votes on the premise of preventing a crime that doesn't happen, and Labour jump up and down in glee saying "ID cards! ID cards". We don't need them as much as we don't need ID to vote.
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Post by batman on Jan 19, 2023 9:22:25 GMT
I need one for those awful mornings when I wake up & can't remember who the hell I am.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,578
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Post by European Lefty on Jan 19, 2023 9:27:17 GMT
I confess I didn't even know there was any kind of free ID available. Of course if we had national ID cards, as they do in most of Europe, this wouldn't be an issue There are parts of Labour that just cannot let ID cards go. The Tories introduce mandatory voting ID to suppress Labour votes on the premise of preventing a crime that doesn't happen, and Labour jump up and down in glee saying "ID cards! ID cards". We don't need them as much as we don't need ID to vote. ?? That's just a bizarre comment
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,578
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Post by European Lefty on Jan 19, 2023 9:29:25 GMT
I need one for those awful mornings when I wake up & can't remember who the hell I am. There are of course lots of advantages to automatically giving every adult a form of free photo ID, which is almost certainly why so many countries do it. I've never understood why people in this country find it so offensive
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Deltapoll
Jan 19, 2023 18:26:57 GMT
via mobile
Post by aargauer on Jan 19, 2023 18:26:57 GMT
I need one for those awful mornings when I wake up & can't remember who the hell I am. There are of course lots of advantages to automatically giving every adult a form of free photo ID, which is almost certainly why so many countries do it. I've never understood why people in this country find it so offensive ID card doesn't mean free. Ours is compulsory and I need to pay.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,578
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Post by European Lefty on Jan 19, 2023 19:50:43 GMT
There are of course lots of advantages to automatically giving every adult a form of free photo ID, which is almost certainly why so many countries do it. I've never understood why people in this country find it so offensive ID card doesn't mean free. Ours is compulsory and I need to pay. Yes but as we are discussing an entirely hypothetical policy we can assume that would not be the case in Britain
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