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Post by matureleft on Mar 23, 2024 9:03:52 GMT
And it’s a not unreasonable guess. There’ll be some Tory bounce back and Reform can’t maintain their rating through a campaign where the focus will be on the main parties. My own guess would show a lower Labour figure reflecting both a lower turnout, differentially weighted against Labour concentrated in safe seats, and some tactical voting.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 23, 2024 10:09:33 GMT
Not convinced that a lower turnout would impact most negatively on *Labour*, given the likely circumstances of this GE.
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Post by bigfatron on Mar 23, 2024 10:17:54 GMT
Not convinced that a lower turnout would impact most negatively on *Labour*, given the likely circumstances of this GE. I think the point is that a large ex-Tory abstention is already baked into these polls, so that may reverse a bit, whereas some Labour voters may feel that it is in the bag, especially in some very solid Labour seats, and stay at home. |
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Post by robert1 on Mar 25, 2024 17:02:48 GMT
Con 26% +3
Lab 44% -2
LD 9% =
Ref 11% -1
Grn 6% +1
SNP 3% +1
Fieldwork 22nd-25th March
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Mar 25, 2024 17:34:16 GMT
Bouncy castle time!
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261 
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Post by polupolu on Mar 25, 2024 18:13:37 GMT
Possibly more realistic than the recent YouGov poll.
According to Electoral Calculus (take with the appropriate amount of salt) that translates to:
Lab 451
Con 121
LD 36
Grn 2
SNP 18
PC 4
Lab majority 252
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 15, 2024 18:14:07 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Apr 22, 2024 16:47:43 GMT
LAB: 43% (-2)
CON: 27% (+2)
RFM: 12% (+1)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 29, 2024 18:49:34 GMT
Lab 44% (+1)
Con 24% (-3)
RefUK 12% (-)
Lib Dem 8% (-1)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 5% (-)
Other 3% (+2)
Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
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Post by andrewp on May 8, 2024 10:55:54 GMT
LAB: 43% (-1)
CON: 26% (+2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
RFM: 10% (-2)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @deltapolluk, 3-7 May.
Changes w/ 26-29 Apr.
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Post by andrewp on May 13, 2024 13:39:42 GMT
LAB: 45% (+2)
CON: 27% (+1)
REF: 10% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
OTh 4% (-1)
via @deltapolluk, 10 May
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Post by hullenedge on May 20, 2024 16:41:58 GMT
Labour lead widens to twenty-two points in our latest results.
Con 23% (-4)
Lab 45% (-)
Lib Dem 10% (+2)
Reform 12% (+2)
SNP 3% (+1)
Green 5% (-1)
Other 3% (+1)
Fieldwork: 17th-20th May 2024
Sample: 1,968 GB adults
(Changes from 10th-13th May 2024)
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Post by batman on May 20, 2024 20:42:43 GMT
that's pretty high for Deltapoll.
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Post by hullenedge on May 26, 2024 7:32:13 GMT
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Post by gibbon on May 26, 2024 8:25:11 GMT
How will the Conservatives plan to introduce National Service impress the parents of 15-18 yeer olds who would be affected by the call-up?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on May 26, 2024 8:40:00 GMT
Usual caveat about subsamples (especially this one) but this poll has "Some other party" on 19% among the 18-24 age group. This means not Lab, not Con, not LD, not Green, not SNP, not Plaid, not Reform. Did they sample most of their young voters in Islington North or something?
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Post by batman on May 26, 2024 8:41:53 GMT
How will the Conservatives plan to introduce National Service impress the parents of 15-18 yeer olds who would be affected by the call-up? depends how much they want to see their kids! My guess is, flippancy aside, not very much at all. |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,203
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Post by r34t on May 26, 2024 8:47:09 GMT
How will the Conservatives plan to introduce National Service impress the parents of 15-18 yeer olds who would be affected by the call-up? depends how much they want to see their kids! My guess is, flippancy aside, not very much at all. & don't forget grandparents, who are more likely to be realistic about their children but dote on their grandkids. Sunak is really, really sick of being PM, isn't he. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 26, 2024 8:54:24 GMT
Usual caveat about subsamples (especially this one) but this poll has "Some other party" on 19% among the 18-24 age group. This means not Lab, not Con, not LD, not Green, not SNP, not Plaid, not Reform. Did they sample most of their young voters in Islington North or something? Maybe Workers Party and Independents of that ilk? A fairly large proportion of that age cohort will be muslims now and there is also the fuckwitted far-left fellow travellers (Queers for Palestine types) |
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Post by batman on May 26, 2024 9:18:34 GMT
yes that would be my guess. Totally agree with your comment Pete apart from your incorrect use of the word ilk (although you are far from alone in that - even the odd Scottish contributor here does that sometimes).
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