Local Council By-elections 12th July

[Tony Otim]

BARNSLEY BC; Old Town (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BENNETT, Kevin (Liberal Democrats)
DEVOY, Tony (Yorkshire Party)
FELTON, Gavin (Democrats and Veterans)
HOUSTON, Christopher (BNP)
NEWING, Jo (Labour)
WATKINSON, Clive (Conservative)

2018: Lab 1206; Ind 493; Con 334; LD 166
2016: Lab 1020; BIG 987; Grn 187; Con 176
2015: Lab 2499; BIG 1507; Con 712; TUSC 259
2014: BIG 1133; Lab 1053; Con 234; TUSC 134
2012: Lab 1391; BIG 665; Ind 214; EDP 206; Con 182
2011: Lab 1672; BIG 951; Con 331; BNP 211
2010: Lab 2067; BIG 1767; Con 704; BNP 562
2008: BIG 1503, 1255; Lab 721; BNP 564, 424; Con 306, 227
2007: BIG 1503; Lab 585; BNP 380; Con 232
2006: BIG 1479; Lab 633; BNP 299; Con 203
2004: Ind 1551, 1531, 1318; Lab 909, 862, 759; LD 639; BNP 273; Con 228

The three independents from 2004 all defended their seats as BIG (Barnsley Independent Group). Conservatives and Lib Dems have same candidates as in May.



DARLINGTON BC; Cockerton (Lab died)
Candidates:
ALEXANDER, Joel (Independent)
BRACK, Kevin John (For Britain)
CURRY, Charlie (Liberal Democrat)
DURHAM, Scott (Conservative)
HENKINSON, Terri (Green)
HESLOP, Eddie (Labour)

2015: Lab 1463, 1405, 1239; Con 839; Grn 581; LD 511



EAST DORSET DC; Verwood East (Con died)
Candidates:
BECK, Colin Robin William (Conservative)
TURNER, Sandra Joy (Labour)

2015: 2xCon unopposed



ELMBRIDGE BC; Oxshott and Stoke d’Abernon (Con resigned)
Candidates:
FORD, Dorothy (Liberal Democrat)
LEWIS, David John (Conservative)
WOOD, Nicholas David (UKIP)

2018: Con 1755; LD 366; Lab 118; UKIP 50
2016: Con 1497, 1474, 1474; LD 366; UKIP 263, 261; Lab 232

Lib Dem and UKIP candidates also stood here in May.



HARTLEPOOL UA; Rural West (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BREWER, James (Independent)
HOLT, Michael (Green)
KHAN, Yousuf (Labour)
YOUNG, Mike (Conservative)

2018:Con 1189; Ind 366;Lab 361; Grn 121
2016: Con 1058; UKIP 531; Lab 264; Grn 240
2015: Con 1797; UKIP 1101; Lab 699; Grn 372
2014: Con 918; UKIP 633; Lab 286; PHF 169
2012: Con 1030/1022/1007; UKIP 550; Ind 422; PHF 416; Lab 379/369/366

The indy and Green candidates both stood in May



LEWES DC; Chailey & Wivelsfield (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BARNES, Brenda Dorothy (Green)
BELCHER, Nicholas George (Labour)
BIKSON, Nancy (Conservative)
HUGHES, Marion Joyce (Liberal Democrats)

2015: Con 1686, 1169; LD 893, 444; UKIP 463; Grn 413
2011: Con 1123, 1082; LD 379, 360; Grn 250; Lab 188
2007: Con 1060, 980; LD 394, 329; UKIP 170
2003: Con 774, 754; LD 507, 480; Grn 142



NORFOLK CC; Yare & All Saints (Con resigned)
Candidates:
CLARKE, Harry Edward Jonathan (Labour)
CONNOLLY, Edward Stefan (Conservative)
THORPE, Andrew (Liberal Democrat)

2017: Con 1991; LD 409; Lab 337
2013: Con 1074; UKIP 942; Lab 421
2009: Con 2186; Lab 575
2005: Con 2391; Lab 1211; LD 964; Grn 331



RUTLAND UA; Oakham South West (Con resigned)
Candidates:
ALDERMAN, Richard John (Independent)
BROOKES, Chris (Labour)
BURROWS, Joanna Mary (Liberal Democrat)
CLIFTON, Patsy (Conservative)

2015: Ind 617, 571; Con 583, 575
Oct 14 by: Con 240; Ind 177; LD 43
2011: Con 285, 277; Ind 279, 266, 139; LD 178, 131
2007: Con 424, 404; LD 291
2003: Con 336; LD 288; Ind 227

The Lib Dem candidate was the top placed Lib Dem in 2011. The Conservative who resigned was Richard Clifton, so I would guess the candidate is a relation.



WAVENEY DC, Pakefield (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
LANG, Peter Ainsworth (Green)
ROBERTSON, Adam Mark William James (Liberal Democrat)
TRINDALL, Phillip Gordon (UKIP)
TYACK, Paul (Labour)
VIGO DI GALLIDORO, Melanie Ann (Conservative)

2015: Lab 1739, 1663, 1302; Con 1207, 1189, 1153; Grn 478, 261, 259; LD 351
2011: Lab 1098, 1018, 989; Con 794, 703, 657; UKIP 563; Grn 323
2010: Lab 1442; Con 1204; LD 546; UKIP 346; Grn 132
2008: Lab 756; Con 656; UKIP 412; LD 179; Grn 104
2007: Lab 773; Con 539; UKIP 388; LD 238; Grn 113; Ind 76
2006: Lab 677; Con 672; UKIP 349; LD 232; Grn 147
2004: Con 769; Lab 739; LD 351; Grn 243
2003: Lab 782; Con 562; LD 362; Grn 96
2002: Lab 979, 913, 893; LD 603, 531, 499; Con 505

Lib Dem also stood in 2015.



WAVENEY DC, Southwold & Reydon (Con died)
Candidates:
BEAVAN, David (Liberal Democrats)
BURROWS, David (Conservative)
CRACKNELL, John Roger (Labour)
SHAW, Mike (UKIP)

2015: Con 1170, 990; Lab 472, 310; Grn 347, 302; UKIP 341
2011: Con 1110, 945; Lab 454, 293; Grn 265
2010: Con 1286, Lab 466; Grn 455
2008: Con 708; Ind 660; Lab 130; ; Grn 93
2006: Con 728; Ind 711; Grn 148; Lab 147
2004: Ind 718; Con 644; Grn 198; Lab 158
2002: Ind 890; Con 877, 720; Lab 246, 240.

The independent who came top in 2002 was Michael Ladd. He lost his seat (coming second) in 2006 and was then also second in 2008 when the Conservative candidate (Susan Allen) was the independent who had taken the conservative seat in 2004. Ladd didn’t stand in 2010 but stood as a Conservative in 2011, topping the poll with Allen second, with the same order repeating in 2015. The Labour candidate this time was also their top candidate in 2015.

[markf]

In the Old Town by-election the BNP candidate usually stands in the Kingstone ward

[yellowperil]

Is there not a by-election this week in Hartlepool? Seems to be missing off the Tony Otim listings?

[yellowperil]

Quick summary of that missing Hartlepool election:
Hartlepool, Rural West ward 4 cands: James Brewer (Ind), Michael Holt (Green), Yousuf Khan (Lab),Mike Young (Con)
 Brewer & Holt also stood in May 2018 when result was Con 1189, Ind 366,Lab 361, Green121
Some earlier results:
2016: Con 1058, UKIP 531, Lab 264, Green240
2015: Con 1797, UKIP 1101, Lab 699,Green 372
2014: Con 918, UKIP 633,Lab 286,PHF 169
2012: Con 1030/1022/1007,UKIP 550 , Ind 422, PHF 416,Lab 379/369/366

2012 elections were all outs on new boundaries .

PHF Putting Hartlepool First.

[Tony Otim]

Jul 11, 2018 12:49:38 GMT yellowperil said:

Is there not a by-election this week in Hartlepool? Seems to be missing off the Tony Otim listings?

Just testing you all 😉

You passed

Move along, nothing to see here



Turns out it was there all along

[John Chanin]

britainelects.com/2018/07/12/previews-12-jul-2018/

[andrewp]

7 Conservative defences today Is a lot in a not very good news week for the Government. How many can they retain?

[Deleted]

Jul 12, 2018 17:27:51 GMT andrewp said:

7 Conservative defences today Is a lot in a not very good news week for the Government. How many can they retain?

Unfortunately, they seem to have picked the right 7 to be defending. I can maybe see a LibDem win in Lewes or an Independent win in Rutland at a push, but I think the Tories will probably hold all seven.

[andrewp]

Jul 12, 2018 17:35:48 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Jul 12, 2018 17:27:51 GMT andrewp said:

7 Conservative defences today Is a lot in a not very good news week for the Government. How many can they retain?

Unfortunately, they seem to have picked the right 7 to be defending. I can maybe see a LibDem win in Lewes or an Independent win in Rutland at a push, but I think the Tories will probably hold all seven.

I’ve gone for them holding 5 in the prediction competition, losing the Two you mention, it wouldn’t absolutely surprise me if they lost one or two more.

[Deleted]

Whilst I certainly don't think they'll win it (they'd be lucky to get over a third), I suspect Labour might perform better than would usually be expected in Verwood. It's a place where the upcoming local government reorganisation, championed by the Conservatives, probably isn't popular. Probably wouldn't hurt them to have played the Chope card either (I don't know if they have, or even if they've done any campaigning).

[Deleted]

Jul 12, 2018 18:49:43 GMT @nw12398 said:

Whilst I certainly don't think they'll win it (they'd be lucky to get over a third), I suspect Labour might perform better than would usually be expected in Verwood. It's a place where the upcoming local government reorganisation, championed by the Conservatives, probably isn't popular. Probably wouldn't hurt them to have played the Chope card either (I don't know if they have, or even if they've done any campaigning).

I spoke to some of our members from Bournemouth while I was campaigning in Swindon for the locals, and they said they were using the reorganisation in their campaign, but didn't expect it to bring a lot of success. Although given recent political developments, who knows?

[andrewp]

Verwood East - declared as a Conservative hold

Con 706
Lab 234

turnout 20.35%

Con 75.1%
Lab 24.9%

[Deleted]

Jul 12, 2018 19:10:40 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Jul 12, 2018 18:49:43 GMT @nw12398 said:

Whilst I certainly don't think they'll win it (they'd be lucky to get over a third), I suspect Labour might perform better than would usually be expected in Verwood. It's a place where the upcoming local government reorganisation, championed by the Conservatives, probably isn't popular. Probably wouldn't hurt them to have played the Chope card either (I don't know if they have, or even if they've done any campaigning).

I spoke to some of our members from Bournemouth while I was campaigning in Swindon for the locals, and they said they were using the reorganisation in their campaign, but didn't expect it to bring a lot of success. Although given recent political developments, who knows?

The conurbation unitary has broadly been perceived to be centralisation towards Bournemouth, which is more objectionable for those in Poole and Christchurch. The position of opposition will be taken up by the Lib Dems and local groups in Poole though, whilst pretty much everyone (including most Conservatives) will probably run on an anti-re-organisation campaign in Christchurch.

There is lots of opposition to the changes in southern East Dorset (so including Verwood), but it's largely very, very safely Conservative (as we have just seen from the Verwood result) with a few pockets where the Lib Dems cling on.

Opposition to reorganisation may also be a good tactic in parts of Purbeck, but elsewhere it wouldn't work.

Nonetheless, I personally expect that Labour will break through and win a few seats in Bournemouth. But it won't be because of the mergers.

[Deleted]

Jul 12, 2018 21:55:47 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Labour success in Verwood would be quite something.

Absolutely, as the results show - I did say they'd be lucky to get half of the Conservative share.

[brianj]

2018 Oxshott and Stoke d'Abernon Ward By-election - Thursday, 12th July, 2018

David John Lewis (Con) 1297 votes, 72%
Dorothy Ford (LD) 463 votes, 25.7%
Nicholas David Wood (UKIP) 42 votes, 2.3%

Turnout 27.7%

mygov.elmbridge.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=172&RPID=502391941

[Robert Waller]

Rural West (Hartlepool) result:

CON: 45.4% (-5.2)
IND: 36.5% (+36.5)
LAB: 12.3% (-0.3)
GRN: 5.8% (-5.6)

Conservative HOLD.

Don't agree with those % changes

[Rutlander]

RUTLAND Oakham SW Independent GAIN


ALDERMAN, Richard John (Independent) 178
BROOKES, Chris (Labour) 80
BURROWS, Joanna Mary (Liberal Democrat) 177
CLIFTON, Patsy (Conservative) 163

Turnout: 33.56%

[Deleted]

Jul 12, 2018 22:37:46 GMT Rutlander said:

RUTLAND Oakham SW Independent GAIN


ALDERMAN, Richard John (Independent)
178
BROOKES, Chris (Labour)
80
BURROWS, Joanna Mary (Liberal Democrat)
177
CLIFTON, Patsy (Conservative)
163

Thats a bad result for the Tories

[Rutlander]

Very, very unexpected (by me, anyway).

[iain]

Jul 12, 2018 22:37:46 GMT Rutlander said:

RUTLAND Oakham SW Independent GAIN


ALDERMAN, Richard John (Independent)
178
BROOKES, Chris (Labour)
80
BURROWS, Joanna Mary (Liberal Democrat)
177
CLIFTON, Patsy (Conservative)
163

Damn!