jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 15, 2021 18:35:24 GMT
Its the East where things look to be most shambolic. They're down 5% in multiple state polls, and most of these polls are pre-April decline. In some ways this shouldn't be surprising. A party that campaigned as a nostalgic protest vote having now turned into generic far left-liberal party was not going to go unnoticed by voters. Nonetheless, they should have hoped 2017 was their low point but now they'd do very well to match it this September. It's partially because the Greens are doing better. However Germany needs a proper party of the left which the SPD certainly aren't, and the Greens shouldn't be. The Greens aren't winning hordes of Die Linke voters, particularly in East Germany of all places. The party is losing votes a bit to everyone i.e. the AFD, CDU, abstention, and bluntly, death. In recent years they have held up best against the SPD and Greens in West Germany, with the latter gains partially reversing over the past 2 years. They are losing their traditional vote over time to the non-left but only gaining a chunk of flaky voters, many of them seem happy to flee the party to more moderate left parties if they smell the chance of beating the right. That doesn't seem a good trade-off to me.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 15, 2021 21:27:31 GMT
The last poll I saw for the Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus had them on 13% which would be down 2% on last time which isn't good and they are on a downward trend. There was some sort of strange projection by Bezirk which was reported on twitter but hasn't shown up on more reputable sites which had them on about the same. Lafontaine and Wagenknecht seem to be keeping them competitive in the Saar. Which says a lot about both them and their relationship with the party. By the way: Ordinary PartyMembers in NRW brought in a petition to exclude both from the party (because Lafontaine had called his supporters to not vote in SaarLand with their SecondVote for TheLeft, in order to stop the entrance of an innerParty-enemy; also the newest book of her). It was opposed by Bartsch and others of the federal leadership, so won't succeed (at least not before the election).
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 16, 2021 5:03:38 GMT
The Saar Left is in a bizarre and nasty civil war between the MP's followers - who appear to be winning - and a coalition of Oskar's surviving followers and the normal Western Left of today (not a large group in the Saarland). This coalition includes most or all of the Landtag group.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 16, 2021 5:13:14 GMT
I can't think of any downsides to Die Linke losing all their seats in the German Parliament regardless of which side of the political divide one is on. They won't. Whilst the seats are distributed by regional lists, the attainment figure is 5% of the federally valid second votes. However, should a party win three constituencies on the first vote, they are deemed to have passed the 5% Sperrklausel and become eligible for seats according to their number of federal second votes. However, such MdB's do not qualify as a Fraktion in the Bundestag. In 2017 - Die Linke won 5 seats on the first vote, 4 in Berlin and 1 in Leipzig. The Leipzig seat was a gain in 2017 and is very marginal. The four Berlin seats are rather less marginal. Berlin-Pankow could be the difficult one for them, with Stephan Liebich standing down. The other three, at least in Berlin terms, should be safe and therefore will mean that Die Linke get seats from the second ballot even if they fall below 5% federally. On current polling I would assume Pankow to go Green. Treptow-Köpenick could also go if things get bad (almost anywhere, on a low winning share). The other two Berlin seats should be safe as houses especially as the AfD are the only reasonable challengers there, ie the Left candidates will get tactical votes. The Leipzig seat is if anything trending towards the Left, though required a freak vote split to fall in 2017 and could also go Green. So, if it gets really bad a repeat of 2002 is not impossible.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 16, 2021 11:30:55 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 16, 2021 11:38:18 GMT
Lafontaine mostly pumps out online red-brown propaganda these days, doesn't he?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 16, 2021 12:01:33 GMT
Lafontaine mostly pumps out online red-brown propaganda these days, doesn't he? Lafontaine just seems pretty cranky at this point, and notably more so than his wife.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 16, 2021 12:22:21 GMT
links corrected. Unlike these previewers I forgot that Gysi holds T-K now. And is standing again. Safe for him personally.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 22, 2021 3:54:06 GMT
Thuringia state snap elections in september are cancelled. It's a silly and a long story.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 22, 2021 4:33:15 GMT
Thuringia state snap elections in september are cancelled. It's a silly and a long story. I hope they weren't cancelled because yet again they might have delivered an inconvenient result. that is part of it. Particularly most inconvenient to people in the CDU group who won't get renominated. Then there's also irrational phobia in the Left about whatever dirty trick the AfD might think of next (no doubt fears of an inconvenient election result enter here as well). Dissolution needs a two-thirds vote. The vote needed to happen within a fairly tight window to allow the snap election to coincide with the ge. Stability pact members had three votes to spare between them. 4 CDU members announced their opposition to the long-agreed snap elections, over a year ago, before they were pushed back to the fall (but there long was hope they might cave yet). This is heavily about three more years of drawing pay. Though the old idea of an AfD tolerated government was at the back of some minds too. The FDP had meanwhile bled off one member to some corona denialist FW splinter. (I am not making this up.) She announced her willingness to vote for dissolution, so theoretically things were on again. Except that some on the left thought it unconsconable to rely on her, and anyways hadn't the CDU pledged to enable snap elections once upon a time? Can you trust the remaining CDUlers? And can you trust the AfD not to vote yes - obviously this is relevant only if the decisive vote is cast by the AfD - there are many who would consider that a complete disaster. The gov't was hunting around for some special vote procedure that wd have ensured this couldn't happen so that nobody is accidentally part of a majority that includes the AfD. (This looked weak af if you ask me.) Then one Left MdL was hospitalized with days on the clock and the Left pulled the plug. Recriminations all around. The "stability pact" is expiring (or already expired really) and will not be renewed. At least not under this name. It's unclear how the gov't will continue, but expected that ot will do so until 2024 now. The AfD has of course called an immediate vote of no confidence (a 'constructive' one, ie a vote to replace Ramelow with Höcke). Put some pressure on CDU and FDP. The latest is that the CDU group will boycott that vote to ensure none of their backbench vote for Höcke.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 24, 2021 17:21:20 GMT
Interesting polling from INSA in Saarland (change from early May poll)
CDU - 36% (+5) SPD - 27% (+6) Green - 9% (-6) Linke - 7% (-7) FDP - 7% (nc) AFD - 6% (nc)
The local Linke and Green troubles appear to have not gone unnoticed...
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 25, 2021 2:20:07 GMT
The Greens were never that strong in the Saarland in the first place, but that's an astonishingly low score for Die Linke. Whether it tells us much about how the rest of the country will vote in September is another matter...
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jul 25, 2021 3:33:25 GMT
The Greens were never that strong in the Saarland in the first place, but that's an astonishingly low score for Die Linke. Whether it tells us much about how the rest of the country will vote in September is another matter... I would have thought it is because of an unwind of personal support for Lafontaine?
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 25, 2021 5:43:09 GMT
Interesting polling from INSA in Saarland (change from early May poll) CDU - 36% (+5) SPD - 27% (+6) Green - 9% (-6) Linke - 7% (-7) FDP - 7% (nc) AFD - 6% (nc) The local Linke and Green troubles appear to have not gone unnoticed... they were probably difficult not to notice if you live locally.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 25, 2021 15:18:07 GMT
De La FONTAINE is not quite the cultural level of Lafontaine...
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jul 25, 2021 15:30:17 GMT
De La FONTAINE is not quite the cultural level of Lafontaine... My bad 😂
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 29, 2021 19:40:32 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 29, 2021 20:11:39 GMT
Berlin ('main' parties only)
AfD 84.4% Freie Wähler 81.3% NPD 78.1% CDU 75% FDP 71.9% SPD 34.4% Bündnis90/Grüne 25% Die Linke 15.6%
Mecklenberg
AfD 93.8% NPD 75% CDU 71.9% FDP 68.8% Freie Wähler 43.8% SPD 28.1% Die Linke 18.8% Bündnis90/Grüne 15.6%
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Aug 30, 2021 6:39:06 GMT
My SPD score is very low in Berlin.
Team Todenhofer = 63.2% - Die Humanisten = 60.5% - FPD = 57.9% Die Basis = 57.9% CDU = = 57.9% - Piratenpartei = 55.3% Graue Panther = 55.3% - SGP = 50% NPD = 50% MieterPartei = 50% Die Neuen Demokraten = 50% - Tierschutz hier! = 47.4% REP = 47.4% Menschliche Welt = 47.4% LKR = 47.4% Gesundheitsforschung = 47.4% DKP = 47.4% BUNDNIS21 = 47.4% AfD = 47.4% - Klimaliste = 44.7% du. = 44.7% Die Linke = 44.7% Die Grauen = 44.7% - Bundnis90/Grune = 42.1% - SPD = 39.5% ODP = 39.5% B* = 39.5% - Bildet Berlin! = 36.8% - Tierschutzpartei = 34.2%
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Aug 30, 2021 6:40:35 GMT
SPD score way higher here in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2021 DKP = 62.2% - NPD = 59.5% FPD = 59.5% - CDU = = 56.8% - SPD = 54.1% LKR = 54.1% Freier Horizont = 54.1% Die Humanisten = 54.1% AfD = 54.1% - Tierschutz hier! = 51.4% - ODP = 48.6% DiB = 48.6% - Unabahngige = 45.9% Tierschutzpartei = 45.9% Piratenpartei = 45.9% Freie Wahler = 45.9% Die Linke = 45.9% - FPA = 43.2% - Gesundheitsforschung = 37.8% - Bundnis90/Grune = 35.1% - Bundnis C = 32.4%
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