jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 9, 2021 12:53:08 GMT
Infratest dimap poll from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (changes from 2016):
SPD - 39% (+8) AFD - 17% (-4) CDU - 14% (-5) Linke - 10% (-3) FDP - 7% (+4) Grune - 6% (+1)
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 9, 2021 13:36:36 GMT
Infratest dimap poll from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (changes from 2016): SPD - 39% (+8) AFD - 17% (-4) CDU - 14% (-5) Linke - 10% (-3) FDP - 7% (+4) Grune - 6% (+1) and no one polls Berlin.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 9, 2021 13:46:12 GMT
Infratest dimap poll from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (changes from 2016): SPD - 39% (+8) AFD - 17% (-4) CDU - 14% (-5) Linke - 10% (-3) FDP - 7% (+4) Grune - 6% (+1) and no one polls Berlin. A song about the CDU's prospects there?
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 9, 2021 13:50:41 GMT
and no one polls Berlin. A song about the CDU's prospects there?
given the noises the abominable state SPD is making, they may well find themselves back in government (as junior partners o/c) after the election if Berliners aren't careful. And yeah, "vote SPD, get CDU and FDP" is the new Berlin Green and Left campaign theme, mirroring the federal failing attempt by the CDU to frighten people with redredgreen.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 9, 2021 13:53:55 GMT
A song about the CDU's prospects there?
given the noises the abominable state SPD is making, they may well find themselves back in government (as junior partners o/c) after the election if Berliners aren't careful. And yeah, "vote SPD, get CDU and FDP" is the new Berlin Green and Left campaign theme, mirroring the federal failing attempt by the CDU to frighten people with redredgreen.given how much electorates get of this from all sides, I suspect it mostly gets ignored.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 9, 2021 13:59:16 GMT
given the noises the abominable state SPD is making, they may well find themselves back in government (as junior partners o/c) after the election if Berliners aren't careful. And yeah, "vote SPD, get CDU and FDP" is the new Berlin Green and Left campaign theme, mirroring the federal failing attempt by the CDU to frighten people with redredgreen.given how much electorates get of this from all sides, I suspect it mostly gets ignored. so I fear. State party shenanigans can easily be drowned out in a federal campaign anyways (and much of West Berlin is a fundamentally suburban, provincial and exceedingly dull place whose Social Democrats will be very happy with Red-Black.)
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 17, 2021 12:01:20 GMT
Couple of new polls from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (change from 2016 election): SPD - 40/38 (+9/+7) AFD - 18/17 (-3/-4) CDU - 12/15 (-7/-4) Linke - 11/11 (-2/-2) Green - 7/6 (+2/+1) FDP - 6/6 (+3/+3) Basically what you would expect, the Greens and FDP are dangerously close to the threshold. A Berlin poll for minionofmidasSPD - 21% (-1) Green - 20% (+5) CDU - 17% (-1) Linke - 12% (-4) AFD - 9% (-5) FDP - 8% (+1) Other - 13% (+4) The incumbent left wing government doesn’t seem very popular, too far left for some, too moderate for others. The SPD lead candidate is considering ditching the Greens and Linke for the CDU and FDP, which probably isn’t going down well with many of their voters. The Other figure is very large, but I don’t think it’s concentrated enough among one party to deliver any seats (Die Partei, Free Voters etc).
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 17, 2021 12:14:50 GMT
Couple of new polls from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (change from 2016 election): SPD - 40/38 (+9/+7) AFD - 18/17 (-3/-4) CDU - 12/15 (-7/-4) Linke - 11/11 (-2/-2) Green - 7/6 (+2/+1) FDP - 6/6 (+3/+3) Basically what you would expect, the Greens and FDP are dangerously close to the threshold. A Berlin poll for minionofmidasSPD - 21% (-1) Green - 20% (+5) CDU - 17% (-1) Linke - 12% (-4) AFD - 9% (-5) FDP - 8% (+1) Other - 13% (+4) The incumbent left wing government doesn’t seem very popular, too far left for some, too moderate for others. The SPD lead candidate is considering ditching the Greens and Linke for the CDU and FDP, which probably isn’t going down well with many of their voters. The Other figure is very large, but I don’t think it’s concentrated enough among one party to deliver any seats (Die Partei, Free Voters etc). yeah, pollster explicitly stated they see no one at over 3% there. Partei is running a somewhat serious campaign here, with the stated (hopeless ) aim of entering the House and replacing the SPD as 3rd coalition partner.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 26, 2021 16:21:38 GMT
infratest dimap (ARD) exit poll for Berlin
Greens 23.5% +8.3 SPG 21.5% -0.1 CDU 15.0% -2.6 Left 14.5% -1.1 FDP 7.5% +0.8 AfG 7.0 % -7.2 Others 11.0 % +1.8
infratest dimap (ARD) exit poll for MV
SPG 37.0% +6.4 AfG 18.5% -2.3 CDU 14.0% -5.0 Left 10.0% -3.2 Greens 7.0% +2.2 FDP 6.5% +3.3 Others 7.0% -1.4
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 26, 2021 16:45:32 GMT
A pity, how Scheswig is looking these days.
The 2 women in Berlin (SPD & Greens) are ... exciting.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 26, 2021 18:23:34 GMT
infratest dimap (ARD) 20:00 forecast for Berlin
34 Greens 22.9% +7.7 33 SPG 22.3% +0.7 22 CDU 15.4% -2.2 20 Left 13.6% -2.0 11 FDP 7.6% +0.9 10 AfG 6.8 % -7.4 Others 11.4 % +2.3
infratest dimap (ARD) 19:56 forecast for MV
29 SPG 38.3% +7.7 14 AfG 18.0% -2.8 11 CDU 14.3% -4.7 07 Left 9.7% -3.5 05 Greens 6.7% +1.9 05 FDP 6.0% +3.0 Others 7.0% -1.6
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 26, 2021 18:47:03 GMT
infratest dimap (ARD) 20:00 forecast for Berlin 34 Greens 22.9% +7.7 33 SPG 22.3% +0.7 22 CDU 15.4% -2.2 20 Left 13.6% -2.0 11 FDP 7.6% +0.9 10 AfG 6.8 % -7.4 Others 11.4 % +2.3 Seems to get exciting in Berlin: If SPD (Your "SPG") will end behind TheGreens, will Mrs.Giffey with her funny appearence risk a coalition with CDU&FDP in order to become mayor?
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 26, 2021 18:48:19 GMT
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 26, 2021 19:02:53 GMT
infratest dimap (ARD) 20:00 forecast for Berlin 34 Greens 22.9% +7.7 33 SPG 22.3% +0.7 22 CDU 15.4% -2.2 20 Left 13.6% -2.0 11 FDP 7.6% +0.9 10 AfG 6.8 % -7.4 Others 11.4 % +2.3 Seems to get exciting in Berlin: If SPD (Your "SPG") will end behind TheGreens, will Mrs.Giffey with her funny appearence risk a coalition with CDU&FDP in order to become mayor? Over here parties with percentage increases are traditionally perceived to have the best mandate to form coalitions. There was some hesitation for instance among the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party to continue supporting the current coalition after the losses in the last GE.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 26, 2021 19:08:14 GMT
Seems to get exciting in Berlin: If SPD (Your "SPG") will end behind TheGreens, will Mrs.Giffey with her funny appearence risk a coalition with CDU&FDP in order to become mayor? Over here parties with percentage increases are traditionally perceived to have the best mandate to form coalitions. There was some hesitation for instance among the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party to continue supporting the current coalition after the losses in the last GE. Yes, of course, it would look terribly badly. On the other hand losing the leadership within the left parties in Berlin - BaWü is different - would be problematic for SPD and will the voters' memory last 5 years?
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 26, 2021 19:24:16 GMT
Over here parties with percentage increases are traditionally perceived to have the best mandate to form coalitions. There was some hesitation for instance among the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party to continue supporting the current coalition after the losses in the last GE. Yes, of course, it would look terribly badly. On the other hand losing the leadership within the left parties in Berlin - BaWü is different - would be problematic for SPD and will the voters' memory last 5 years? Well... FGW (ZDF) 21:02 forecast for Berlin 40 SPG 22.4% +0.8 39 Greens 21.7% +6.5 29 CDU 16.4% -1.2 25 Left 14.0% -1.6 14 FDP 7.7% +1.0 13 AfG 7.0 % -7.2 Others 10.8 % +1.7 FGW (ZDF) 21:00 forecast for MV 30 SPG 38.4% +7.8 14 AfG 18.1% -2.7 11 CDU 14.2% -4.8 07 Left 9.7% -3.5 04 Greens 5.5% +0.7 05 FDP 5.9% +2.9 Others 8.2% -0.4
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 26, 2021 20:02:52 GMT
A redgreen or greenred majority will be used, anything else would be a little shocking.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 26, 2021 20:19:54 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 26, 2021 20:20:21 GMT
A redgreen or greenred majority will be used, anything else would be a little shocking. If they will end with 79/160, they will need TheLeft. Indeed, anything else is in an area like Berlin absolutely forbidden. Although - if TheGreens will be ahead, SPD might be tempted to risk the unthinkable...
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 26, 2021 20:31:03 GMT
A redgreen or greenred majority will be used, anything else would be a little shocking. If they will end with 79/160, they will need TheLeft. Indeed, anything else is in an area like Berlin absolutely forbidden. Although - if TheGreens will be ahead, SPD might be tempted to risk the unthinkable... yeah, evidently I can't count. I thought both those sets of numbers showed a redgreen majority.
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