German state elections

[Georg Ebner]

What i have collected on NorthRhine-WestPhalia so far (mostly maps):

drive.google.com/drive/folders/1j6hH8skiAG9WKzWSwZVQuCdrTvJkbH4N?usp=sharing

[Devil Wincarnate]

CDU-Green talks in NRW this evening.

[minionofmidas]

SlH as well.

[Georg Ebner]

May 23, 2022 19:44:32 GMT minionofmidas said:

SlH as well.

Yes: In SchleswigHolstein CDU's Günther, who needs only 1 further MP, chose to negotiate with TheGreens instead of FDP. (Albeit the the former had refused to continue Jamaica and the latter had unanimously opted for talks - "Thankfulness is no political category"...). That's obviously, what the people prefer:







...even among CDU-voters no real difference is visible:



Mirroring the region's trending to the left:









Personally i expected Günther to try to put the blame on TheGreens, but to take finally FDP (what is still not impossible). Yet, Günther is indeed totally "centrist" (=conformist) - him and Orban having been in the same European party is really ridiculous...

[Georg Ebner]

Saxony's trends (= deViations from german average) in my usual 4 variants:
- measured at all eligible votes ("Ber."):
-- Saxony-% minus Germany-% ("abs."):

-- Saxony-% divided by Germany-% ("rel."):

- measured at only valid votes ("Gült."):
-- Saxony-% minus Germany-% ("abs."):

-- Saxony-% divided by Germany-% ("rel."):

The same for Thuringia:




Both regions show the same pattern: 1990ff. more CDU-leaning, then a sharp shift to the left (especially to The Left), with AfD emerging a dramatic turn to the right.
So an other reTurn to the XIXth, when the East (Prussia, Bavaria&Austria) was antirevolutionary.

[Georg Ebner]

ProJection population 2009-vs.-2030:

FDP:

Greens:

Trend AfD (red %-losses or %-gains below average):

Trend FDP:

Not surprising, of course.

[The Bishop]

Did you have to get a microscope out to examine the FDP "total"?

[Deleted]

@georg ebner, can I say, and I believe I speak for everyone here on this, these maps are absolutely wonderful. You are like the Pete Whitehead of map making, but for middle Europe. Well done dear chap.

[Devil Wincarnate]

There are some very evocative names on that Thurginian map, of political significance past. Weimar, Schmalkalden, Kyffhäuser...

Some of those areas have been in decline for over 30 years, it's amazing they can go further. iainbhx has made points about Suhl in particular before. What a shame. It's a beautiful Land and I'm hoping to see more of it soon.

[Deleted]

Can someone do a 1930-2024 comparison? Of course, the NSDAP stronghold was Bavaria rather than Thuringia. I believe Saxony was good for both parties. 

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 2, 2024 13:44:20 GMT @sanders said:

@georg ebner, can I say, and I believe I speak for everyone here on this, these maps are absolutely wonderful. You are like the Pete Whitehead of map making, but for middle Europe. Well done dear chap.

Though i must admit, that none of them was made, instead just stolen taken away by me...

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 2, 2024 14:23:12 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

There are some very evocative names on that Thurginian map, of political significance past. Weimar, Schmalkalden, Kyffhäuser...

Some of those areas have been in decline for over 30 years, it's amazing they can go further. iainbhx has made points about Suhl in particular before. What a shame. It's a beautiful Land and I'm hoping to see more of it soon.

The home of LUTHER, BACH, GOETHE's father, NIETZSCHE, RANKE is not just in a geographical sense the heart of Germany.

[Georg Ebner]

Looking through the exitPolls of ForschungsGruppe Wahlen (for ZDF) and InfraTest Dimap (for ARD) the surprising thing is, that SPD performed suddenly best among the young:
FGW:

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 2, 2024 15:38:49 GMT @sanders said:

Can someone do a 1930-2024 comparison? Of course, the NSDAP stronghold was Bavaria rather than Thuringia. I believe Saxony was good for both parties. 

Of course..

[Deleted]

Sept 2, 2024 19:10:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sept 2, 2024 15:38:49 GMT @sanders said:

Can someone do a 1930-2024 comparison? Of course, the NSDAP stronghold was Bavaria rather than Thuringia. I believe Saxony was good for both parties. 

Of course..

Was thinking of Munich Putsch times. Assumed that because it was in Bavaria, that was the NSDAP's best area. Do we have the 1930 results, the ones mentioned earlier?

[Georg Ebner]

1st votee (FPTP):


2nd vote (PR):


The cities stand out. BaroqueJewel Dresden less so - let alone smaller Chemnitz (250k) -, but Leipzig (also 570k) differs a lot from its surRounding and Saxony as a whole.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 2, 2024 15:38:49 GMT @sanders said:

Can someone do a 1930-2024 comparison? Of course, the NSDAP stronghold was Bavaria rather than Thuringia. I believe Saxony was good for both parties. 

Protestantic Bavaria (=parts of Franconia) was as well as Thuringia&Saxony, cf.:
- Nat.Soc.FreedomP./NSFP in May 1924:



- NSDAP in 1930:

[Peter Wilkinson]

Sept 2, 2024 19:33:13 GMT @sanders said:

Was thinking of Munich Putsch times. Assumed that because it was in Bavaria, that was the NSDAP's best area. Do we have the 1930 results, the ones mentioned earlier?

Wikipedia is your friend!

However, while the 1930 election was in many ways the election in which the Nazis first broke through, they still got only about half the vote they did in JUly 1932 - so while the 1932 map shows the Nazis winning over most of the map, on the 1930 map, they only show up as winning in East Prussia. To quite an extent, this is misleading - for instance, the most dominant party on the 1930 map is the SDP, which apparently almost disappears from the July 1932 map, but in fact, the actual SDP vote had only dropped by a fairly small amount. What had changed was that in 1930, the SDP had got fairly low pluralities in a lot of areas, with the Nazis in second or fairly good third places - in July 1932, the Nazi vote in these areas had sharply increased, putting them in first place, but most of their new votes hadn't come from the SDP. If you look carefully at the maps, they do in fact show quite a lot of this detail, though it can be difficult to read.

EDIT: And I see that Georg Ebner has meanwhile come up with detailed information about exactly where the 1930 Nazi vote was or wasn't.

[michaelarden]

Sept 2, 2024 15:46:09 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Looking through the exitPolls of ForschungsGruppe Wahlen (for ZDF) and InfraTest Dimap (for ARD) the surprising thing is, that SPD performed suddenly best among the young:
FGW:

Least badly surely? And it's margin of error stuff too.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 2, 2024 20:43:05 GMT michaelarden said:

Sept 2, 2024 15:46:09 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Looking through the exitPolls of ForschungsGruppe Wahlen (for ZDF) and InfraTest Dimap (for ARD) the surprising thing is, that SPD performed suddenly best among the young:
FGW:

Least badly surely? And it's margin of error stuff too.

Yes, but we must add to these the contrary numbers in 2019, when a pollster had for Saxony 6-7% below 60 years, 8% for 60+ and 10% for 70+ - what is a bit less within the MoE.