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Post by minionofmidas on May 9, 2022 17:30:09 GMT
The SSW gained an extra 30000 votes in comparison with the last Landtag elections . I wonder how much of this extra support came from the fact that won a seat in the Bundestag last year. Most of it came from people unimpressed with the SPD and unwilling to really vote for a different party. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on May 10, 2022 14:27:08 GMT
In Kiel N Greens gain and SPD lose 19 points in the direct vote (list vote half as empathic), exchanging 1st and 3rd places while the 2nd place CDU looks on. Also the new Green direct MdL (was a list MdL before) has the nicely genderconfused uberscandinavian name Lasse Petersdotter (but seems uneqivocally male, and also Holstein born). über-Swedish to be specific, both Lasse and the -dotter matronymic (would be -datter in Danish/Norwegian, -dóttir in Icelandic and -dóttur in Faroese). It would be really weird for a "male presenting" person to use a matronymic if that person wasn't transsexual, so I assume s(he) is. Swedish women basically only use matronymics for feminist reasons, so even if he has a Swedish mother called Petersdotter transferring her matronymic to her son as a surname would be really weird.He held a speech at the party conference of the Socialist People's Party in Denmark in March (and called it "our sister party", which some of his fellow Greens disagree with), I wonder what language he held that speech in? Also a meeting with Norwegian students. So some Scandi interests, but that's not unusual for a Holstein Green regardless of ancestry. EDIT: Nah, his family runs an undertaker business in Preetz, established in 1930 by an August Petersdotter as a furniture store, so it's likely derived from some Low German name (maybe Petersdorfer??) and unrelated to the Swedish matronymic. No chance of a man using a matronymic in 1930. Just weird they called him something as stereotypically Swedish as Lasse with a surname like that, makes it sound like a joke. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 10, 2022 16:05:54 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on May 10, 2022 16:18:34 GMT
In Kiel N Greens gain and SPD lose 19 points in the direct vote (list vote half as empathic), exchanging 1st and 3rd places while the 2nd place CDU looks on. Also the new Green direct MdL (was a list MdL before) has the nicely genderconfused uberscandinavian name Lasse Petersdotter (but seems uneqivocally male, and also Holstein born). über-Swedish to be specific, both Lasse and the -dotter matronymic (would be -datter in Danish/Norwegian, -dóttir in Icelandic and -dóttur in Faroese). though whether the spelling was preserved correctly in Germany in bygone centuries is another matter. It would be really weird for a "male presenting" person to use a matronymic if that person wasn't transsexual, so I assume s(he) is. Swedish women basically only use matronymics for feminist reasons, so even if he has a Swedish mother called Petersdotter transferring her matronymic to her son as a surname would be really weird.[/quote](ignoring the strike and what's said below for a sec) Not if the chronological order was 1)legal name change for feminist reasons 2)emigration 3)German naturalization 4)motherhood, in which case it would all be quite natural. That sounds convincing. Though I did just see some genealogy page blithely state "Petersdotter is a German surname of Swedish origin". Apparently it's not as rare a name as I would have assumed. Probably safest to assume that, whenever their ancestress moved to Germany, the matronymic origin of the name got somehow lost in translation. You know, people and the stuff they take pride in... Northern sounding first name with northern sounding surname is not rare in Germany. Same with Dutch, same with French. (But not Polish. Ahem.) Besides the general popularity of Scandinavian names. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on May 11, 2022 9:29:24 GMT
Devil Wincarnate: in addition to the historical background and the binational aspect (the guarantees provided to Denmark by the federal German government in 1955) there is one more reason why I can't take the CDU's habitual whining about SSW's special status seriously. There is a perfectly logical and simple solution to the issue that removes the special status to the SSW (and thereby the issue of whether it remains a national minority/minorities party or has morphed into a regionalist party) without violating the Copenhagen-Bonn agreement and upsetting the general German-Danish consensus about the border region: Divide the Land into two electoral districts equivalent to its two historical components: Landesteil Holstein and Landesteil Schleswig and either set a 5% threshold in each Landersteil for all parties so any party that passes the threshold in either landesteil gets seats in the Landtag, or allocate 58 seats to Holstein and 15 to Landesteil Schleswig, which would make it unnecessary to have a percentage based threshold at all in Landesteil Schleswig as the de facto threshold would be slightly higher than 5%. But the CDU has never been interested in any kind of practical solution, they just want to bitch about it every election season.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 11, 2022 10:19:51 GMT
Devil Wincarnate: in addition to the historical background and the binational aspect (the guarantees provided to Denmark by the federal German government in 1955) there is one more reason why I can't take the CDU's habitual whining about SSW's special status seriously. There is a perfectly logical and simple solution to the issue that removes the special status to the SSW (and thereby the issue of whether it remains a national minority/minorities party or has morphed into a regionalist party) without violating the Copenhagen-Bonn agreement and upsetting the general German-Danish consensus about the border region: Divide the Land into two electoral districts equivalent to its two historical components: Landesteil Holstein and Landesteil Schleswig and either set a 5% threshold in each Landersteil for all parties so any party that passes the threshold in either landesteil gets seats in the Landtag, or allocate 58 seats to Holstein and 15 to Landesteil Schleswig, which would make it unnecessary to have a percentage based threshold at all in Landesteil Schleswig as the de facto threshold would be slightly higher than 5%. But the CDU has never been interested in any kind of practical solution, they just want to bitch about it every election season. I'm not exactly convinced by the CDU line on the SSW, but equally I'm not convinced by the SSW line that they are neither left nor right. Although arguably they look a bit like the two Danish liberal parties if they had never split! I do agree with your suggestion of a split... And the CDU unwillingness to do anything like it. Minority languages in Germany is a topic that doesn't seem to get much discussion. Thinking about it, are the CDU the only party to provide a speaker of a minority language as a minister-president? Incidentally, I walked past the SSW office in Flensburg a few years ago. It must be the least - imposing political HQ imaginable. I thought it was a house with a poster in the window at first. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 11, 2022 15:58:55 GMT
Günther apparently wants to continue the, now overbroad, Jamaica Coalition. Why, though? Unless this is all kabuki?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 11, 2022 20:52:57 GMT
Günther apparently wants to continue the, now overbroad, Jamaica Coalition. Why, though? Unless this is all kabuki? Tacitly he might prefer CDU&FDP, but as S-H is per se even slightly to the left of Germany as a whole the people do not:  Before the election FDP & TheGreens had refused its continuation, when arithmetically not necessary - and after some BlameGame it will likely end with CDU&FDP, i would guess. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 11, 2022 21:05:28 GMT
Apropos "deViations": I haven't posted those of S.-H. from federal average in federal elections so far. Measured at all eligible votes: --: S-H subtracted by D:  --: S-H divided by D:  Measured at only valid votes:   |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 14, 2022 19:20:25 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 15, 2022 12:59:03 GMT
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 15, 2022 16:16:06 GMT
My thoughts on the election in NorthRhine-WestPhalia: The CDU was polled slightly ahead, but RedGreen is less unpopular than the incumbent CDU&FDP and the SPD-leader has been improving a little bit during the campaign, meaning, that the "race" for first place could be narrower than polled. I was wrong - CDU far ahead of SPD. If FDP won't come into the LandTag, RedGreen would have a clear majority, though. If the FDP achieves it, it will be narrow. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 15, 2022 17:17:44 GMT
InfratestDimap have included now PostalVotes in their proJection and put the FDP at 5.3%, thus RedGreen won't have a majority.
There will be some pressure on FDP-NrW to instal TrafficLight in NrW, too (and CDU targetted in the last days explicitly FDP-SecondVotes), but the optics - ousting the clearly first placed - would look badly.
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Post by minionofmidas on May 15, 2022 19:42:29 GMT
Conatituency results coming in by now. NRW results page[/quote] notoriously bad (plenty of good city results pages around though). So far 20 constituencies wholly in of which 17 CDU - though not a single flip. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 16, 2022 4:13:41 GMT
Final result
Turnout 55.5 (-9.6)
CDU 35.7 (+2.8)
SPD 26.7 (-4.6)
Green 18.2 (+11.8)
FDP 5.9 (-6.7)
AfD 5.4 (-1.9)
Left 2.1 (-2.8)
Partei 1.1
Tierschutz 1.1
Basis .8
FW .7
Volt .6
etcpp
CDU 76 (76 direct) (+4)
SPD 56 (45) (-13)
Greens 39 (7) (+25)
FDP 12 (-16)
AfD 12 (-4)
CDU gains off SPD 8 (Aachen Rural both, Krefeld S, Märkischer Kreis S, Tecklenburg, Bielefeld Outer, Lippe W, 8th gain notional through abolition of a Ruhr seat and introduction of a new seat in Kölnbonn suburbia))
Green gains off CDU 4 (2 in southern Cologne, 2 out of 3 in Münster)
Green gains off SPD 3 (2 in central Cologne, 1 in Aachen)
(2 SPD and 1 CDU hold in Cologne)
(Green list leads 8: not including one in Münster but including CDU held Bonn N and the SPD held Bielefeld C)
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 16, 2022 16:34:06 GMT
Amusingly both camps - if we exclude the small parties and include FDP in the midRight one, what is presently not totally correct, of course - received 47.0% of SecondVotes:  In recent federal elections the left parties overperformed in NrWf compared to Germany as a whole by ~4%, while the right ones underperformed there by ~1.7%:  ...what would give nationWide the left bloc ~43% and the right one (as written incl. FDP) ~48.7%. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 16, 2022 18:26:54 GMT
DeViations of the 2022-OpinionPolls from the actual result:  "ForschungsGruppeWahlen/FGW" and "Forsa" (twice) performed best by having misses of only 1.4% per party. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 17, 2022 10:17:19 GMT
SchleswigHolstein: Pollster-perFormance:  "ForschungsGruppe Wahlen/FGW" performed best with only deViations from the actual result of 1.9%/2.0% per party. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 17, 2022 12:17:16 GMT
I don't want to bore us with more maps of the elec.districts, but some have perhaps not seen MunicipalityMaps comparing 2017 & 2022. Change first place:  AfD:  CDU:  FDP:  Greens:  SPD:  Left:  |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 19, 2022 22:56:13 GMT
JamaicaXL nixed in Kiel, Günther told he'll have to choose a partner.
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