The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 1, 2022 11:43:37 GMT
SSW is the local regionalist group isn't it?
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Apr 1, 2022 12:48:55 GMT
SSW is the local regionalist group isn't it? It is, although from the initials it sounds like it should be something with "socialist" and "workers" in the name. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 1, 2022 14:28:56 GMT
SSW is the local regionalist group isn't it? It is, although from the initials it sounds like it should be something with "socialist" and "workers" in the name. Sammlungsbewegung Sozialistischer Werktätiger? It is the party of the Danish (and Frisian) ethnic minority (ies), and thus excempt from the threshold, though it works *in many ways* as a rotm regional independent group (of center left bent) in practice. It's complicated. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 8, 2022 19:59:23 GMT
Looking through the federal election precinct results, the SSW won one precinct, which appears to be this very interesting place. Quite easily too, with 32% of the list vote. Clearly the border should be readjudicated.  |
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Post by markgoodair on May 5, 2022 19:10:55 GMT
Looking through the federal election precinct results, the SSW won one precinct, which appears to be this very interesting place. Quite easily too, with 32% of the list vote. Clearly the border should be readjudicated. This was the first Federal election that the SSW had contested since 1961. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 7, 2022 9:27:19 GMT
That INSA poll was a total outlier. Everybody since (incl another INSA) has the CDU at 35+ and the SPD struggling to hold onto 2nd place.
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Post by iainbhx on May 8, 2022 16:22:26 GMT
Prognosis indicate a very solid result for the Union in Schleswig Holstein and the Greens are second. Looks like the AfD haven't made the hurdle, neither have Die Linke, but that's not unusual for this Land. Could see a CDU-SSW or CDU-FDP coalition, the CDU may only need one party.
Schleswig-Holstein 18-Uhr Prognose
ZDF: CDU 41 GRU 19,5 SPD 16 FDP 7 SSW 6 AfD 4,5
ARD: CDU 43 GRU 17 SPD 15,5 FDP 7 SSW 6 AfD 4,9
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Post by minionofmidas on May 8, 2022 17:46:57 GMT
Prognosis indicate a very solid result for the Union in Schleswig Holstein and the Greens are second. Looks like the AfD haven't made the hurdle, neither have Die Linke, but that's not unusual for this Land. Could see a CDU-SSW or CDU-FDP coalition, the CDU may only need one party. Schleswig-Holstein 18-Uhr Prognose ZDF: CDU 41 GRU 19,5 SPD 16 FDP 7 SSW 6 AfD 4,5 ARD: CDU 43 GRU 17 SPD 15,5 FDP 7 SSW 6 AfD 4,9 CDU-SSW is generally considered not an option in much the way as CDU-Linke or anybody-AfD is. Haven't followed this campaign though. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 8, 2022 17:59:29 GMT
I'll buy AfD out once it's dried&dusted but not before. Looks like there were whispers of a CDU majority at 6pm that have already bitten the dust. Still, CDU better and SPD worse than anybody predicted, 2nd place for Greens, great result for SSW, but I presume CDU-FDP happening.
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Post by minionofmidas on May 8, 2022 18:47:53 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on May 8, 2022 19:51:51 GMT
In Kiel N Greens gain and SPD lose 19 points in the direct vote (list vote half as empathic), exchanging 1st and 3rd places while the 2nd place CDU looks on. Also the new Green direct MdL (was a list MdL before) has the nicely genderconfused uberscandinavian name Lasse Petersdotter (but seems uneqivocally male, and also Holstein born).
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Post by minionofmidas on May 8, 2022 19:57:46 GMT
Other relevant constituencies not fully in but lookd like Greens have won 2 out of 3 in Kiel and 1 out of 3 in Lübeck but just lose out on Flensburg unless I should know more than I do about the two missing precincts. Rest of state should be CDU sweep.
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on May 8, 2022 20:17:42 GMT
Certainly a very different outcome for the SPD compared this to Saarland last month – what went wrong for them? And might the result give Merz and the CDU a boost nationwide, or is it simply local trends at play (I must confess to knowing very little about the previous administration, other than the fact that Robert Habeck was the previous deputy Ministerpräsident).
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Post by iainbhx on May 8, 2022 20:28:29 GMT
Looking at what's outstanding. AfD Raus has occurred.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on May 8, 2022 23:53:36 GMT
Certainly a very different outcome for the SPD compared this to Saarland last month – what went wrong for them? And might the result give Merz and the CDU a boost nationwide, or is it simply local trends at play (I must confess to knowing very little about the previous administration, other than the fact that Robert Habeck was the previous deputy Ministerpräsident). The local CDU Minister President is moderate, governing with Jamaica, and just generally very popular. As has been the case in many state elections over the past few years and beyond, people tend to state their federal voting intention before the campaign period begins (especially with a federal election not happening that long ago), which meant Gunther looked a lot more vulnerable than he actually was. He was helped by the SPD running a no-name and the Greens not nominating Habeck. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on May 8, 2022 23:57:31 GMT
CDU-SSW is generally considered not an option in much the way as CDU-Linke or anybody-AfD is. Haven't followed this campaign though. I don’t know if the issue still persists, but I believe the CDU previously attacked the SSW for increasingly being a left of centre party in disguise that is allowed to cheat the threshold. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 9, 2022 9:46:18 GMT
CDU-SSW is generally considered not an option in much the way as CDU-Linke or anybody-AfD is. Haven't followed this campaign though. I don’t know if the issue still persists, but I believe the CDU previously attacked the SSW for increasingly being a left of centre party in disguise that is allowed to cheat the threshold. An accusation that isn't entirely unfair. |
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on May 9, 2022 15:01:48 GMT
I don’t know if the issue still persists, but I believe the CDU previously attacked the SSW for increasingly being a left of centre party in disguise that is allowed to cheat the threshold. An accusation that isn't entirely unfair. It's either ignorant or disingenuous. Firstly, the SSW was always a centre-left party given that the Danish minority originated among smallholders, rural craftsmen and working class people who had retained their Danish identity when the farmers and other "better off" elements in the countryside switched to German identity in the first half of the 19th century (the urban bourgeoisie and civil servants were always culturally German) and the people that joined the minority after WW2 were among those who had suffered the most during the Nazi regime and started to question their national identity, looking back to their Danish ancestry and Nordic social model, trade union strength etc. (overwhelmingly working class, and often former Social Democrats or Communists). Secondly, only 20% of S-H's population live in the Southern Schleswig part of the Land (Landesteil Schleswig) and since there is no historical Danish or Frisian minority in Holstein the minority party couldn't pass the threshold after its initial post-war boom (supported by the hope of reunification with Denmark), and the exception exists to remedy this and became part of the 1955 German-Danish Bonn Agreement about the minority situation on both sides of the border. The Danish government lobbied the British military administration about creating a separate Bundesland Schleswig (in which the minority would ofc always have been able to get more than 5% support) after the war, but was turned down (its population would have been slightly smaller than Bremen's). The CDU and FDP were massively anti-Danish in the post-war era and tried to harass the minority as best they could (with discrimination in some rural areas only really subsiding in the 70s and 80s), whereas the SPD never engaged in anti-Danish agitation or policies (and in 1947 SPD leader Kurt Schumacher even supported a referendum on whether the region should belong to Denmark or Germany). Southern Schleswig had a very high Nazi vote (partially because it was hit especially hard by the agricultural crisis in the 30s and partially due to the nationality issue) and the local CDU and FDP chapters were filled with ex-Nazis which exacerbated the conflict. Removing the 5% exemption (while keeping S-H united) would undermine the mutual German-Danish understanding about the border situation and cause all sorts of problems and unintended consequences. |
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Post by markgoodair on May 9, 2022 15:59:25 GMT
The SSW gained an extra 30000 votes in comparison with the last Landtag elections . I wonder how much of this extra support came from the fact that won a seat in the Bundestag last year.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 9, 2022 16:59:35 GMT
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