|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 18:06:13 GMT
Perl had a below average swing... and an SPD win by 1.0. I think that's that, 52 town sweep incoming. (edit: ninja'd)
However, with 45 towns including Saarbrücken and Saarlouis reporting, the Greens are just barely over 5.0%. May well end up falling below. AfD on 5.6 and surely in, FDP on 4.8, out barring a miracle. SPD majority.
|
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Mar 27, 2022 18:08:50 GMT
Perl had a below average swing... and an SPD win by 1.0. I think that's that, 52 town sweep incoming. (edit: ninja'd) However, with 45 towns including Saarbrücken and Saarlouis reporting, the Greens are just barely over 5.0%. May well end up falling below. AfD on 5.6 and surely in, FDP on 4.8, out barring a miracle. SPD majority. I'm fairly sure the FDP don't make it. I think the Greens do, but it looks close. I don't see how the SPD haven't got a majority. |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 18:25:31 GMT
Perl had a below average swing... and an SPD win by 1.0. I think that's that, 52 town sweep incoming. (edit: ninja'd) However, with 45 towns including Saarbrücken and Saarlouis reporting, the Greens are just barely over 5.0%. May well end up falling below. AfD on 5.6 and surely in, FDP on 4.8, out barring a miracle. SPD majority. I'm fairly sure the FDP don't make it. I think the Greens do, but it looks close. They're currently in by 6 votes. I just checked and two of the seven missing towns, including (I think) the largest, had above average Green results in 2017. So, maybe, but I'd advise against betting on it at even odds. I could probably trawl through district websites to get a clearer idea. |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Mar 27, 2022 18:36:55 GMT
I'm fairly sure the FDP don't make it. I think the Greens do, but it looks close. They're currently in by 6 votes. I just checked and two of the seven missing towns, including (I think) the largest, had above average Green results in 2017. So, maybe, but I'd advise against betting on it at even odds. I could probably trawl through district websites to get a clearer idea. You were corrected missed the target by 23 votes. |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 18:48:22 GMT
Where did you find that? The state website stopped updating 45 minutes ago for me. I can't even find a district or municipal results website.
Did find the info that Blieskastel is also the Green top candidate's hometown, which gave me a little hope...
|
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Mar 27, 2022 18:55:49 GMT
Where did you find that? The state website stopped updating 45 minutes ago for me. I can't even find a district or municipal results website. Did find the info that Blieskastel is also the Green top candidate's hometown, which gave me a little hope... Wahlrecht.de twitter feed. |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 18:59:22 GMT
Where did you find that? The state website stopped updating 45 minutes ago for me. I can't even find a district or municipal results website. Did find the info that Blieskastel is also the Green top candidate's hometown, which gave me a little hope... Wahlrecht.de twitter feed. yes. (Why didn't I check there earlier?) They seem to have tracked those missing towns down. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 27, 2022 19:08:43 GMT
Perl had a below average swing... and an SPD win by 1.0. I think that's that, 52 town sweep incoming. (edit: ninja'd) However, with 45 towns including Saarbrücken and Saarlouis reporting, the Greens are just barely over 5.0%. May well end up falling below. AfD on 5.6 and surely in, FDP on 4.8, out barring a miracle. SPD majority. How many absolute majorities have there been at Land level, outside the Weißwurst botherers? |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 19:11:48 GMT
Lmao. The only town where the SPD crossed 50% of the vote is... Rehlingen.
Alright, it's called Rehlingen-Siersburg and I still haven't seen those remaining seven towns. But still. Edit: i have now and the statistic survives, if only just - 49.7 in one of the 7.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 27, 2022 19:12:00 GMT
That looks like an absolute majority to me, even if the FDP is in? If the FDP are in, it could be close. If they are out, it's a majority. Whilst we are all noting that Onkel Erich's home has dumped Die Linke (although watch for the final score for Saar.bunt and at that to Linke), the Union are down 13% here, Tankstelle Toby has really screwed the pooch here. There don't seem to be many English-language articles on this so far, but the Beeb article seems to think this is due to voters not wanting to "rock the boat during a war". Which frankly strikes me as bullshit. Scholz is doing a confident and professional job, and Merkel-AKK-Laschet's legacy is falling to pieces. |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 19:20:43 GMT
Perl had a below average swing... and an SPD win by 1.0. I think that's that, 52 town sweep incoming. (edit: ninja'd) However, with 45 towns including Saarbrücken and Saarlouis reporting, the Greens are just barely over 5.0%. May well end up falling below. AfD on 5.6 and surely in, FDP on 4.8, out barring a miracle. SPD majority. How many absolute majorities have there been at Land level, outside the Weißwurst botherers? Many. Not that many recently, obviously. I think I'll actually count them for you.  |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 19:31:40 GMT
I may have miscounted and there are a few definitional grey areas, but I counted 66.
|
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 19:49:31 GMT
22.3% wasted votes. Makes a mockery of the concept of pr.
Well, okay, not really on the Saar because they have D'Hondt and don't have overhangs and equalizers (because they don't have direct seats in the first place) so they're not pretending to believe in strict pr anyways.
But since turnout was just 61.4%, and 1.3% of those votes were invalid... 77.7% of valid votes is less than half the total electorate. Most of the Saarland is not represented by this Landtag at all! (And don't get me started on the representation of minors and noncitizens.)
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824 
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 28, 2022 3:42:48 GMT
5 years ago the CDU won all but two of the state's municipalities. Back in Oskar's 1990 landslide, the SPD won all but two, Perl and Tholey. So far, a little over half of all municipalities have reported and the SPD is leading everywhere, including Tholey by 6 points on an 18-point swing. Perl hasn't reported yet. The old confessional cleavages are declining ever further in importance of course. Sic transit gloria mundi: 2017:  2022:  |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 28, 2022 6:24:30 GMT
Ahahahahahahahah. The actual election result is SPD 29, CDU 19, AfD 2, i 1.
Under Saar election law, 41 seats are distributed from party regional lists (there are three regions, the number of seats per region is not fixed) and 10 seats from statewide lists. Unless a party submitted no state list, in which case seats it should still get are distributed from regional lists instead (so there's actually no disadvantage in habing no state list, except you can better fix up who your MdLs will be with one.)
Only the AfD had no state list. One was submitted, but it was withdrawn at the last minute by party agents going rogue. They were excluded from the party, of course, but one of them remained the top candidate in Saarbrücken.
The AfD won 3 seats - one each in the two nonSaarbrücken regions, and one that should have gone to the state list, but now went to the Saarbrücken list instead. In other words, it cost him his party membership card, but his ploy worked as intended.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 28, 2022 10:08:52 GMT
22.3% wasted votes. Makes a mockery of the concept of pr. A not unreasonable reply is "well the Greens and FDP should have got a few more votes, then". |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 28, 2022 11:54:56 GMT
22.3% wasted votes. Makes a mockery of the concept of pr. A not unreasonable reply is "well the Greens and FDP should have got a few more votes, then". It's no fault of the people who voted for them that they didn't. Most of the other 12.5% threw their vote away consciously, of course. |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 28, 2022 12:05:55 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 31, 2022 20:32:00 GMT
The next state elections are right around the corner and let's see what the polling says...
Ooh, spicy.
You two should get your stories straight.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
|
Post by Tony Otim on Apr 1, 2022 7:50:55 GMT
I mean that's the problem with Schleswig-Holstein - there's always a question...
|
|
