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Post by A Brown on Mar 25, 2012 19:29:25 GMT
Result of today's Saarland state election.
CDU 35.2 (+0.7) 19 (nc)
SPD 30.6 (+6.1) 17 (+4)
Linke 16.1 (-5.2) 9 (-2)
Piraten 7.4 (NA) 4 (+4)
Gruene 5 (-0.9) 2 (-1)
FDP 1.2 (-8.0) 0 (-5)
Turnout 61.6 (-6)
Greens survived by the skin of their teeth and the SPD should have done better really.
Impressive result for the pirates.
Die Linke could have also done worse.
Nothing to say about the FDP anymore.
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Post by kvasir on Mar 25, 2012 19:39:51 GMT
Very interesting results for the Piraten! I'm left wondering for whom all the FDP's: pro-bussiness, de-regulation, low taxation, ideological voters currently are voting?
Or are they just staying at home?
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Post by toryjim on Mar 25, 2012 19:41:11 GMT
I'm not an expert but that looks like a good result for the CDU, given they are in power at the moment.
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Post by Will Patterson on Mar 25, 2012 19:43:16 GMT
SPD have ruled out a Red-Red Coalition even though it would just have a majority, so it's looking like a CDU-led Grand Coalition.
One thing worth saying about the FDP is that is they do go down the pan so badly at the Federal elections, the CDU/CSU are left without any natural Coalition partners: if there was any chance of a CDU/CSU-Green Coalition beforehand, this result will have put the Greens off having been part of a 'Jamaica' Coalition in Saarland, and I can't see the Pirates sitting easily with them. It looks like it's going to be a Grand Coalition or an SPD Chancellor next year and if Merkel has any sense, she'll see that the FPD have some successes in the next 12 months...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 25, 2012 19:44:33 GMT
Very interesting results for the Piraten! I'm left wondering for whom all the FDP's: pro-bussiness, de-regulation, low taxation, ideological voters currently are voting? Or are they just staying at home? Quite a lot will be voting CDU I suspect, especially since Merkel is on that party's "moderate" wing....... |
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Post by kvasir on Mar 25, 2012 20:02:40 GMT
Very interesting results for the Piraten! I'm left wondering for whom all the FDP's: pro-bussiness, de-regulation, low taxation, ideological voters currently are voting? Or are they just staying at home? Quite a lot will be voting CDU I suspect, especially since Merkel is on that party's "moderate" wing....... That was my initial thoughts but consider: 2009 CDU: 184,537 FDP: 49,069 2012 CDU: 169,594 FPD: 5,871 If these FPD voters are voting on social reasons many of them could move to the Piraten. I can't imagine the pro-businesss comunity been interested in any party hostile to copyright law. |
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Post by A Brown on Mar 25, 2012 20:26:36 GMT
I agree with Kvasir here.
I think it was fairly clear that FDP voters switched to the CDU in BW and to a lesser extent in RLP last year but I think the FDP vote probably scattered here.
A wählerstrom chart would be useful.
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 25, 2012 20:28:19 GMT
I'm not an expert but that looks like a good result for the CDU, given they are in power at the moment. They're in rump power following the collapse of the Jamaica Coalition with the Greens supporting a CDU-FDP government but that collapsed due to FDP problems and attempts to negotiate a Grand Coalition failed. The numbers suggest only two numeric outcomes - a Grand Coalition after all or the SPD and The Left swallowing their grievances and allying. The latter would be hard to do at the best of times but in this state Oskar Lafontaine heads The Left, making it even less likely. |
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Post by Will Patterson on Mar 25, 2012 20:31:30 GMT
ZDF are reporting that the SPD have already ruled out a Coalition with the Left, so it's going to be a Grand.
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Sibboleth
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'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 30, 2012 19:10:26 GMT
In slightly less important news (but still of symbolic interest), Frankfurt's new (SPD) Lord Mayor is Jewish. First Jewish Mayor of a major city in Germany since the obvious.
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Post by markgoodair on Dec 3, 2012 9:38:15 GMT
Lower Saxony state elections will be held on 20th January 2013.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2012 12:12:54 GMT
Lower Saxony state elections will be held on 20th January 2013. Sounds fun. Most recent poll was conducted about a month ago CDU: 41% (-1.5) SPD: 34% (+1) FDP: 3% (-5) Green: 13% (+5) Left: 3% (-4) Pirates: 3% Anyone know much about this? Current CDU-FDP coalition would appear to be doomed.. |
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 3, 2012 13:10:01 GMT
Lower Saxony state elections will be held on 20th January 2013. Sounds fun. Most recent poll was conducted about a month ago CDU: 41% (-1.5) SPD: 34% (+1) FDP: 3% (-5) Green: 13% (+5) Left: 3% (-4) Pirates: 3% Anyone know much about this? Current CDU-FDP coalition would appear to be doomed.. I did consider nipping over for it, but Hannover in January has little appeal. The CDU has been slipping in the national polls over the last few weeks (and the FDP and the Piraten look like they won't be in the new Bundestag), so it may be that the CDU is the largest party but Red/Green comes to power but Ministerpräsidenten McAllister is very popular. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2012 13:49:09 GMT
Sounds fun. Most recent poll was conducted about a month ago CDU: 41% (-1.5) SPD: 34% (+1) FDP: 3% (-5) Green: 13% (+5) Left: 3% (-4) Pirates: 3% Anyone know much about this? Current CDU-FDP coalition would appear to be doomed.. I did consider nipping over for it, but Hannover in January has little appeal. The CDU has been slipping in the national polls over the last few weeks (and the FDP and the Piraten look like they won't be in the new Bundestag), so it may be that the CDU is the largest party but Red/Green comes to power but Ministerpräsidenten McAllister is very popular. Interesting, could he swing it then? With ~12% support for parties <5% the CDU could win a narrow majority on around 45%. |
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 28, 2014 18:17:56 GMT
The state election in Saxony will be held on 31st August.
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 28, 2014 19:57:35 GMT
The state election in Saxony will be held on 31st August. Sachsen 31/8; Thüringen 14/9; Brandenburg 14/9. Brandenburg will almost certainly continue as Rot-Rot. There is a Fünf-Prozent Hürde, which will mean the FDP swap with the AfD. This barrier does not apply to the Listenvereinigungen der Sorben. Thüringen is a Großkoalition, again the FDP look doomed, but is is also possible that the AfD won't make it past the hurdle. It will probably stay a Großkoalition. Sachen is a CDU-FDP coalition. Fat chance of that remaining. It is just possible that the CDU might get a majority on their own, especially if the NPD fail to pass the hurdle along with the FDP. It is, of course, most likely to then be a Großkoalition, due to the small size of the SPD. However, it might be possible for a CDU-AfD coalition to form - is that a Botswana-Koalition? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 28, 2014 20:49:26 GMT
Iain- how likely is it that the NPD will drop out, do you think? And has the DVU-NPD merger done for the far-right in Brandenburg?
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 29, 2014 18:35:53 GMT
Iain- how likely is it that the NPD will drop out, do you think? And has the DVU-NPD merger done for the far-right in Brandenburg? I'd say there is about a 50% chance that the NPD won't get into the Sächsische Landtag, according to the polls they have a smidgen less prospects than the FDP. It's AfD's strongest Lander, I expect them to come a comfortable 4th. Saxony is, of course, their strongest Land. You may find this an interesting little treasure trove 2014 elections in Saxony. as there have been Kommunalwahlen earlier this year as well. As for Brandenburg, well, I haven't been to the Mark for over a year, but I don't see them getting in there, merger or no merger. There are various Kreistagen they will enter, |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 10, 2014 5:55:34 GMT
Latest polls for the Landtagwahlen:
Brandenburg; SPD 34 (+1) ; CDU 28 (+8) ; SED 22 (-5); AfD 5; GRÜ 5 (-1) ; FDP 3 (-4); Sonstige 6
Sachsen: CDU 43 (+3); SED 20 (-1); SPD 14 (+4); GRÜ 7 (+1); AfD 5; FDP 3 (-7); NDP 3 (-3); Sonstige 5
Thüringen: CDU 34 (+3); SED 26 (-1); SPD 16 (-2) ; GRÜ 6(-); AfD 5; FDP 4(-4); Sonstige 6
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 10, 2014 13:34:55 GMT
Latest polls for the Landtagwahlen: Brandenburg; SPD 34 (+1) ; CDU 28 (+8) ; SED 22 (-5); AfD 5; GRÜ 5 (-1) ; FDP 3 (-4); Sonstige 6 Sachsen: CDU 43 (+3); SED 20 (-1); SPD 14 (+4); GRÜ 7 (+1); AfD 5; FDP 3 (-7); NDP 3 (-3); Sonstige 5 Thüringen: CDU 34 (+3); SED 26 (-1); SPD 16 (-2) ; GRÜ 6(-); AfD 5; FDP 4(-4); Sonstige 6 Interesting reading. My thoughts are: Brandenburg- the SPD might be able to form a coalition without Team Mielke but sadly it looks like they will continue. Saxony- well, this could be dramatic. Potentially the Landtag will be down to four parties if the AfD just miss out. Either way, the CDU-FDP coalition is over and I can see a grand coalition, unless the CDU can do a deal with the AfD or even with the Greens if the latter are sufficiently inclined. Outlandishly, and dependent on results, the CDU could possibly pull off a rather strong minority government. Thuringia- probably more of the same, but again depends on the FDP/AfD outcomes. |
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