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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 26, 2021 21:39:06 GMT
Looks lke the SPD is definitely ahead in Berlin - and redgreen is off.
But there may be a redgreen majority in MeckPomm.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 27, 2021 3:22:06 GMT
Looks lke the SPD is definitely ahead in Berlin - and redgreen is off. But there may be a redgreen majority in MeckPomm. they got 0.2 more votes but somehow end up a seat short anyways! 3 overhang and 5 equalizer mandates, CDU and AfD win one direct seat each. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 27, 2021 5:48:54 GMT
 Just a few purple dots to remind us of the fallen empire |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 10, 2021 22:12:26 GMT
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 19, 2021 18:14:17 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Feb 23, 2022 13:20:02 GMT
Saarland Landtag election will take place on 27th March .
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 23, 2022 13:39:11 GMT
Saarland Landtag election will take place on 27th March . Schleswig-Holstein follows on may 8th, NRW on may 15th, which is of course the big one that's making non-local news this far out. Lower Saxony in october. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 15:49:11 GMT
Polls on the Saar close in 15 minutes. Everybody assumes that Hans has been bested by his deputy (was a CDU-led Grand Coalition) but nobody knows what government the SPD will form. Much depends on that pesky 5 percent treshold - might well be an absurd absolute majority of seats for the SPD on 40% or less if all or all but one of AfD, Greens, FDP, Left and bunt.saar (Green splitters and Left splitters, unite for a fresh start) fail. That's in ascending order of likelihood of failure.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 16:01:49 GMT
Exit poll
SPD 43
CDU 27.5
AfD 5.5
Green 5.5
FDP 5
Left 2.7
bunt not stated, but other 10.8 - should have beaten the Left on these figures
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 16:04:24 GMT
that's the ARD figures, ZDF has SPD 44, Greens 6, FDP 4.8, Left 2.5. CDU and AfD same as ARD.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 27, 2022 16:12:35 GMT
That looks like an absolute majority to me, even if the FDP is in?
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 16:16:09 GMT
That looks like an absolute majority to me, even if the FDP is in? Yes on the ZDF figures, probably on the ARD figures - it's D'Hondt, 51 seats. ARD projects 26 SPD even if FDP in, but must be close about the last one. ZDF estimates 63% Turnout, down six points on 2017. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 27, 2022 16:18:30 GMT
Linke below the threshold? How sad…
oh wait nevermind.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 16:20:54 GMT
Fun fact: SPD pm candidate Anke Rehlinger still holds a 20+ years old state women's record in shot put... which she set in the Saar town of Rehlingen (but she wasn't yet called Rehlinger at the time; she took her husband's name at marriahe.)
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 16:24:15 GMT
Linke below the threshold? How sad… oh wait nevermind. Given the circumstances - the exceedingly nasty 2021 feuding and then Oskar's public departure weeks before the election - and just what a bad fit the state is for the party's current coalition in W Germany... I don't think anybody will mourn overmuch. |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 27, 2022 16:44:29 GMT
That looks like an absolute majority to me, even if the FDP is in? If the FDP are in, it could be close. If they are out, it's a majority. Whilst we are all noting that Onkel Erich's home has dumped Die Linke (although watch for the final score for Saar.bunt and at that to Linke), the Union are down 13% here, Tankstelle Toby has really screwed the pooch here. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 16:56:45 GMT
That looks like an absolute majority to me, even if the FDP is in? If the FDP are in, it could be close. If they are out, it's a majority. Whilst we are all noting that Onkel Erich's home has dumped Die Linke (although watch for the final score for Saar.bunt and at that to Linke), the Union are down 13% here, Tankstelle Toby has really screwed the pooch here. yeah, there's a distinct "weighed by the electorate and found too light" vibe about the guy. I've also looked around a bit and the bunt score seems to be not that impressive. Barely strongest Other in Saarbrücken town. Tierschutz, PARTEI, Basis, FW, perhaps Volt all polling in the 1-2 range I think. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 27, 2022 17:06:01 GMT
SaarLand's deViations from german average in federal elections. Party-% measured at - all eligible votes:   - only valid votes:   |
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2022 17:34:27 GMT
5 years ago the CDU won all but two of the state's municipalities. Back in Oskar's 1990 landslide, the SPD won all but two, Perl and Tholey. So far, a little over half of all municipalities have reported and the SPD is leading everywhere, including Tholey by 6 points on an 18-point swing. Perl hasn't reported yet.
The old confessional cleavages are declining ever further in importance of course.
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 27, 2022 18:02:50 GMT
5 years ago the CDU won all but two of the state's municipalities. Back in Oskar's 1990 landslide, the SPD won all but two, Perl and Tholey. So far, a little over half of all municipalities have reported and the SPD is leading everywhere, including Tholey by 6 points on an 18-point swing. Perl hasn't reported yet. The old confessional cleavages are declining ever further in importance of course. Endergebnis in #Perl: CDU 37,0 % SPD 38,0 % Linke 1,6 % AfD 4,1 % Grüne 5,1 % FDP 7,2 % They've been absolutely felted. |
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