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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2021 12:37:30 GMT
It's interesting to see just how much the rise of the AfD has annihilated the NPD and the like. Ten years ago, the NPD polled higher than the FDP in Sachsen-Anhalt. This time, they're polling about half the score of the Freie Wähler (who achieved another creditable score-does anyone know much about the S-A version?) The DVU actually won 16 seats in 2002 but have failed to get anywhere since. The DVU! Forgot all about them. Of course there were other weird parties around like the Schill-Partei. And the Republikaner, although that was more a CDU splinter.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 7, 2021 14:08:35 GMT
It's interesting to see just how much the rise of the AfD has annihilated the NPD and the like. Ten years ago, the NPD polled higher than the FDP in Sachsen-Anhalt. This time, they're polling about half the score of the Freie Wähler (who achieved another creditable score-does anyone know much about the S-A version?) The DVU actually won 16 seats in 2002 but have failed to get anywhere since. also one of the most famous polling failures of all. Pretty much all of these voters were assumed to just stay home by pollsters, as they did in the preceding election.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 7, 2021 14:13:05 GMT
It's interesting to see just how much the rise of the AfD has annihilated the NPD and the like. Ten years ago, the NPD polled higher than the FDP in Sachsen-Anhalt. This time, they're polling about half the score of the Freie Wähler one tenth is "about half"? no but they had a veritable stronghold, taking 10% in Stendal district and a fairly strong 2nd place in its northern direct constituency (which borders Brandenburg and indeed is partly Brandenburg historically, and of course Brandenburg has - relatively leftish - FWs in the Landtag.) Was gonna look that guy up anyways, back in a moment.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 7, 2021 14:29:53 GMT
CDU Landtag member 2002-11, mayor of Osterburg (not the Brandenburgish bit of the constituency) since. Independent since ~2018 (formally left well after cutting loose locally), FW since 2020. More interesting is what he got estranged from the CDU over. The Stendal town CDU got caught engaged in postal vote fraud in 2015 and apparently for some years before and lied and stonewalled its way through the aftermath. He didn't go along.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 7, 2021 23:00:27 GMT
Final result Turnout 60.3 (-.8) Invalid 1.4 CDU 37.1 (+7.3) 40 seats (+10) AfD 20.8 (-3.5) 23 seats (-2) Left 11.0 (-5.3) 12 seats (-4) SPD 8.4 (-2.2) 9 seats (-2) FDP 6.4 (+1.5) 7 seats (+7) Greens 5.9 (+0.7) 6 seats (+1) FW 3.1 (+2.1) die Basis 1.5 Tierschutz 1.4 (-0.1) NPD 0.3 (-1.3) etc Black-Red majority, I don't think you can call that SPD a Grand Coalition partner anymore. Definitely beyond all expectations result for Haseloff. The CDU won every Wahlkreis in that Landtag election except for Zeizt in the southeast of Saxony-Anhalt (won by AfD). FW had some near misses in rural Walhkreise.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 8, 2021 8:17:35 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 8, 2021 10:58:45 GMT
One day these far right claims might even be something other than totally baseless, probably not on this occasion though.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 8, 2021 15:06:14 GMT
There happened already fraud during counting (conducted by stupid left-pubertarian pupils/students) in Bremen, which cost AfD initially its representation in the parliament. Also other cases. But a range of ten-thousands region-wide is not imaginable.
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 8, 2021 15:20:39 GMT
There happened already fraud during counting (conducted by stupid left-pubertarian pupils/students) in Bremen, which cost AfD initially its representation in the parliament. Also other cases. But a range of ten-thousands region-wide is not imaginable. p.scr.: That's of course only formal fraud. Far more important is the agitation of journalists/actors/teachers.
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 11, 2021 0:40:08 GMT
What the "Institute for Elec. Research" claims, that has happened: Perhaps these TheLeft-CDU-voters are really real?
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 15, 2021 8:55:40 GMT
Linke better be careful any further fall and could be below 5%. Looks like CDU will be in the driving seat again at this stage.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 15, 2021 15:40:00 GMT
They might well. The last poll in North Rhine-Westphalia a few weeks ago showed Die Linke sinking beneath the waves there. To no longer have representation from that Land, with its huge population and industrial heritage, would be a blow. They're going to pot in Lower Saxony too.
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Post by jamie on Jun 15, 2021 16:15:17 GMT
I can't think of any downsides to Die Linke losing all their seats in the German Parliament regardless of which side of the political divide one is on. I suppose you could make the argument from the left/far left that something needs to represent that end of the political spectrum, but even then they are still too poisonous to join a federal government and are therefore wasting left wing votes. In retrospect, the WASG really should have stuck with the SPD/returned once the splinter had failed in order to push the SPD further to the left, as their successor party is if anything actively impeding a left leaning government at this point.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2021 16:17:15 GMT
They might well. The last poll in North Rhine-Westphalia a few weeks ago showed Die Linke sinking beneath the waves there. To no longer have representation from that Land, with its huge population and industrial heritage, would be a blow. They're going to pot in Lower Saxony too. Isn't it based on a national threshold though, so if they got over 5% nationally they would get seats from NRW even if they only got say 3% there? (or are you referring to a Landtag poll/election ?)
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Post by jamie on Jun 15, 2021 16:36:41 GMT
They might well. The last poll in North Rhine-Westphalia a few weeks ago showed Die Linke sinking beneath the waves there. To no longer have representation from that Land, with its huge population and industrial heritage, would be a blow. They're going to pot in Lower Saxony too. Its the East where things look to be most shambolic. They're down 5% in multiple state polls, and most of these polls are pre-April decline. In some ways this shouldn't be surprising. A party that campaigned as a nostalgic protest vote having now turned into generic far left-liberal party was not going to go unnoticed by voters. Nonetheless, they should have hoped 2017 was their low point but now they'd do very well to match it this September.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 15, 2021 17:25:15 GMT
They might well. The last poll in North Rhine-Westphalia a few weeks ago showed Die Linke sinking beneath the waves there. To no longer have representation from that Land, with its huge population and industrial heritage, would be a blow. They're going to pot in Lower Saxony too. Its the East where things look to be most shambolic. They're down 5% in multiple state polls, and most of these polls are pre-April decline. In some ways this shouldn't be surprising. A party that campaigned as a nostalgic protest vote having now turned into generic far left-liberal party was not going to go unnoticed by voters. Nonetheless, they should have hoped 2017 was their low point but now they'd do very well to match it this September. It's partially because the Greens are doing better. However Germany needs a proper party of the left which the SPD certainly aren't, and the Greens shouldn't be.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 15, 2021 17:52:07 GMT
I can't think of any downsides to Die Linke losing all their seats in the German Parliament regardless of which side of the political divide one is on. They won't. Whilst the seats are distributed by regional lists, the attainment figure is 5% of the federally valid second votes. However, should a party win three constituencies on the first vote, they are deemed to have passed the 5% Sperrklausel and become eligible for seats according to their number of federal second votes. However, such MdB's do not qualify as a Fraktion in the Bundestag. In 2017 - Die Linke won 5 seats on the first vote, 4 in Berlin and 1 in Leipzig. The Leipzig seat was a gain in 2017 and is very marginal. The four Berlin seats are rather less marginal. Berlin-Pankow could be the difficult one for them, with Stephan Liebich standing down. The other three, at least in Berlin terms, should be safe and therefore will mean that Die Linke get seats from the second ballot even if they fall below 5% federally.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 15, 2021 17:57:26 GMT
They might well. The last poll in North Rhine-Westphalia a few weeks ago showed Die Linke sinking beneath the waves there. To no longer have representation from that Land, with its huge population and industrial heritage, would be a blow. They're going to pot in Lower Saxony too. Isn't it based on a national threshold though, so if they got over 5% nationally they would get seats from NRW even if they only got say 3% there? (or are you referring to a Landtag poll/election ?) Sorry, yes, you're quite right. I always get that mixed up because of the rule that you can't be given seats in a state where you didn't stand a list even if you got more than five per cent across the country. They're sinking in the Landtag poll as well.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 15, 2021 18:08:50 GMT
Isn't it based on a national threshold though, so if they got over 5% nationally they would get seats from NRW even if they only got say 3% there? (or are you referring to a Landtag poll/election ?) Sorry, yes, you're quite right. I always get that mixed up because of the rule that you can't be given seats in a state where you didn't stand a list even if you got more than five per cent across the country. They're sinking in the Landtag poll as well. The last poll I saw for the Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus had them on 13% which would be down 2% on last time which isn't good and they are on a downward trend. There was some sort of strange projection by Bezirk which was reported on twitter but hasn't shown up on more reputable sites which had them on about the same.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 15, 2021 18:20:14 GMT
Sorry, yes, you're quite right. I always get that mixed up because of the rule that you can't be given seats in a state where you didn't stand a list even if you got more than five per cent across the country. They're sinking in the Landtag poll as well. The last poll I saw for the Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus had them on 13% which would be down 2% on last time which isn't good and they are on a downward trend. There was some sort of strange projection by Bezirk which was reported on twitter but hasn't shown up on more reputable sites which had them on about the same. Lafontaine and Wagenknecht seem to be keeping them competitive in the Saar. Which says a lot about both them and their relationship with the party.
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