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Post by iainbhx on Jun 6, 2021 20:21:59 GMT
I'll need to have a closer look at these results some time after they're complete. Gotta see where those Left defectors really went. Possibly multiple directions (CDU, further bleeding of Ostalgics to the AfD, Greens, groups like Die Basis or FW, all quite possible. The Other vote is phenomenally high.) Let's see what infratest dimap says... looks like they didn't count the Others for this graph? Am I reading that right, a plurality of people who voted for Die Linke in 2016 but not 2021 went to the CDU!? Possibly, there is a very high others vote which might be of a similar size of loss for Die Linke.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 6, 2021 20:35:57 GMT
I'll need to have a closer look at these results some time after they're complete. Gotta see where those Left defectors really went. Possibly multiple directions (CDU, further bleeding of Ostalgics to the AfD, Greens, groups like Die Basis or FW, all quite possible. The Other vote is phenomenally high.) Let's see what infratest dimap says... looks like they didn't count the Others for this graph? Am I reading that right, a plurality of people who voted for Die Linke in 2016 but not 2021 went to the CDU!? According to the exit poll analysis. Of those shown; I do not know how many Other voters or excess deaths are missing here. But yes.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 6, 2021 20:36:16 GMT
Starting to look like a one-seat CDU-SPD majority? Not quite so sure, because I think the CDU have taken 39-40 of the 41 direct seats which almost certainly means overhangs and balancing seats which I think removes that slim majority.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 6, 2021 20:40:32 GMT
Starting to look like a one-seat CDU-SPD majority? Not quite so sure, because I think the CDU have taken 39-40 of the 41 direct seats which almost certainly means overhangs and balancing seats which I think removes that slim majority. That would be a hilarious outcome. Shades of Hesse.
If I looked right, the sole AfD lead is currently the closest constituency.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 6, 2021 20:55:23 GMT
Not quite so sure, because I think the CDU have taken 39-40 of the 41 direct seats which almost certainly means overhangs and balancing seats which I think removes that slim majority. That would be a hilarious outcome. Shades of Hesse.
If I looked right, the sole AfD lead is currently the closest constituency.
357 votes in Zeitz with I presume a fairly large Postal vote box still to count.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 6, 2021 21:53:44 GMT
That would be a hilarious outcome. Shades of Hesse.
If I looked right, the sole AfD lead is currently the closest constituency.
357 votes in Zeitz with I presume a fairly large Postal vote box still to count. Elsteraue. A little over 15% of the constituency (so the postal votes from there would be, like, 5% of the district total). Don't see how that lead gets overturned. First few constituencies now fully counted. I notice Green result in some places is actually down on 2016. Also that turnout mirrors 16's in Merseburg, the most urban constituency in so far, and slightly down elsewhere.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 6, 2021 21:58:20 GMT
The Greens struggle at state elections continues. The Eastern results are particularly poor for them given the low starting points, but across Germany they seem to be squeezed when they aren’t perceived as likely to lead the government/opposition. Assuming the national polls are broadly accurate, it does suggest they will need to sustain their current popularity for a long time before they can seriously compete in state elections across Germany like the CDU and to a diminishing extent the SPD do.
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 6, 2021 22:27:44 GMT
Why did the opinion polls underestimate the CDU? Interesting point! Wonder is it difficult to do face to face polling? Excellent result for them defo settles the nerves
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 6, 2021 22:42:29 GMT
Why did the opinion polls underestimate the CDU? a) the German polling industry is a bit of a joke b) that state has always been genuinely particularly hard to poll. Very low share of regular, dependable party voters. Very low turnout floor, but a lot of people who might vote in principle and won't start paying attention until two weeks before the election c) there was no credible prime minister candidate besides Haseloff anywhere at all. Who simultaneously presented himself as an authentic Voice of the East, strong and stable and very anti-AfD, and made as little mention of the party he's in (many of whose eastern MdLs are definitely not anti-AfD...) as he could get away with.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2021 0:36:55 GMT
Why did the opinion polls underestimate the CDU? a) the German polling industry is a bit of a joke b) that state has always been genuinely particularly hard to poll. Very low share of regular, dependable party voters. Very low turnout floor, but a lot of people who might vote in principle and won't start paying attention until two weeks before the election c) there was no credible prime minister candidate besides Haseloff anywhere at all. Who simultaneously presented himself as an authentic Voice of the East, strong and stable and very anti-AfD, and made as little mention of the party he's in (many of whose eastern MdLs are definitely not anti-AfD...) as he could get away with. Im preaching to the choir. But... Go to the Big Konrad's house in Königswinter and you see that there are lots of Germans who are not political at all. Hate politics, hate politicians. But vote Schwarz. Every. Verdammte. Time.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 7, 2021 3:25:31 GMT
Final result Turnout 60.3 (-.8) Invalid 1.4
CDU 37.1 (+7.3) 40 seats (+10) AfD 20.8 (-3.5) 23 seats (-2) Left 11.0 (-5.3) 12 seats (-4) SPD 8.4 (-2.2) 9 seats (-2) FDP 6.4 (+1.5) 7 seats (+7) Greens 5.9 (+0.7) 6 seats (+1)
FW 3.1 (+2.1) die Basis 1.5 Tierschutz 1.4 (-0.1) NPD 0.3 (-1.3) etc
Black-Red majority, I don't think you can call that SPD a Grand Coalition partner anymore. Definitely beyond all expectations result for Haseloff.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 7, 2021 3:39:51 GMT
Some oddities: turnout rose in Magdeburg and the rural north, fell in the postindustrial south. This correlates well with CDU strength visavis AfD but not at all with strongest CDU gains (in vote share). FW somehow got over 10% in Stendal district and came a strong second in a direct seat there. Green gains come almost entirely from Halle and Magdeburg.
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 7, 2021 3:47:05 GMT
Wow for SPD & DL terrible...GP wouldn't be jumping for joy! CDU & FDP coalition nationally odds must be tempting!
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2021 8:54:28 GMT
Why did the opinion polls underestimate the CDU? a) the German polling industry is a bit of a joke b) that state has always been genuinely particularly hard to poll. Very low share of regular, dependable party voters. Very low turnout floor, but a lot of people who might vote in principle and won't start paying attention until two weeks before the election c) there was no credible prime minister candidate besides Haseloff anywhere at all. Who simultaneously presented himself as an authentic Voice of the East, strong and stable and very anti-AfD, and made as little mention of the party he's in (many of whose eastern MdLs are definitely not anti-AfD...) as he could get away with. c) makes him sound remarkably like Merkel, who has always done very well in the east for all those reasons. I wouldn;t imagine you could tell very much about the national scene from this - the Greens hardly register here, for a start.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 7, 2021 8:58:40 GMT
Why did the opinion polls underestimate the CDU? If i remember correctly they have underpolled in the east each time the antiAfD-vote going to the regionalPM-party.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 7, 2021 9:03:16 GMT
Not uninteresting to compare First&Second-Votes:
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2021 10:33:08 GMT
It's interesting to see just how much the rise of the AfD has annihilated the NPD and the like. Ten years ago, the NPD polled higher than the FDP in Sachsen-Anhalt. This time, they're polling about half the score of the Freie Wähler (who achieved another creditable score-does anyone know much about the S-A version?)
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 7, 2021 10:37:41 GMT
Not uninteresting to compare First&Second-Votes: Those differences are... odd. Individually you can justify the FW overperformance on 1st votes, and perhaps the SPD as well, but Die Linke and the AFD in particular doing noticeably better on 1st votes is very odd. And as the main challenger to the AFD in the direct mandates and with a lot of incumbents you would think the CDU would actually do better in 1st votes, but it’s very much the opposite.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 7, 2021 12:10:58 GMT
Not uninteresting to compare First&Second-Votes: Those differences are... odd. Individually you can justify the FW overperformance on 1st votes, and perhaps the SPD as well, but Die Linke and the AFD in particular doing noticeably better on 1st votes is very odd. And as the main challenger to the AFD in the direct mandates and with a lot of incumbents you would think the CDU would actually do better in 1st votes, but it’s very much the opposite. It's not so much "odd" - rather indicative for the antiAfD LeanVotes CDU received from the left parties.
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 7, 2021 12:18:33 GMT
It's interesting to see just how much the rise of the AfD has annihilated the NPD and the like. Ten years ago, the NPD polled higher than the FDP in Sachsen-Anhalt. This time, they're polling about half the score of the Freie Wähler (who achieved another creditable score-does anyone know much about the S-A version?) The DVU actually won 16 seats in 2002 but have failed to get anywhere since.
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