|
Post by minionofmidas on Apr 1, 2021 14:14:45 GMT
The "Institut für WahlForschung..." came out with some kind of MRP-studies on the VoteStreams since the LandTag-elections 2016 or the BundesTag-election 2017. BadenWürttemberg: 59k including my uncle, who now tries unconvincingly to deny his 16/7 AfD votes. Lol.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,251
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 1, 2021 20:36:33 GMT
59k including my uncle, who now tries unconvincingly to deny his 16/7 AfD votes. Lol. AfD-Greens is a little bit hefty - even in Kretschmann-land. Also i suspect, that Your uncle is not an apolitical ProtestVoter?
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Apr 1, 2021 20:55:38 GMT
59k including my uncle, who now tries unconvincingly to deny his 16/7 AfD votes. Lol. AfD-Greens is a little bit hefty - even in Kretschmann-land. Also i suspect, that Your uncle is not an apolitical ProtestVoter? Greens-AfD-Greens if he voted in 2011 at all, which I don't know. He was fairly newly moved to Badian Siberia then. And no, he more or less is. Definitely somebody I was thinking of when I wrote of the marginal 80s Green voter that party activists would have been surprised at. Kept on "usually" voting Green as a lesser evil and "still the least established of the lot". Rn he's just very turned off by the whole corona denialist thing and voted for the Landesopa because he doesn't want change mid-pandemic. So he should be very glad about today's decision to seek another Green-Black coalition. Unlike sizable parts of the Green state party.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 3, 2021 19:05:56 GMT
AfD-Greens is a little bit hefty - even in Kretschmann-land. Also i suspect, that Your uncle is not an apolitical ProtestVoter? He was fairly newly moved to Badian Siberia then. Never heard this expression before, where would come under this description? (Landesopa though is great, Germany does have some great political nicknames)
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Apr 3, 2021 20:41:06 GMT
He was fairly newly moved to Badian Siberia then. Never heard this expression before, where would come under this description? (Landesopa though is great, Germany does have some great political nicknames) anywhere within historic Baden and/or (preferrably and) Karlsruhe RB east of the Heidelberg-Sinsheim line. Far away to the northeast of anywhere you'd immediately think of as Baden, sparsely inhabited and with a rougher climate than the Upper Rhine Plain (though where in Germany doesn't have a rougher climate than the Upper Rhine Plain?). Siberia. Now Hessian Siberia is a much more diffuse concept. From Frankfurt, it's anywhere north of Friedberg outside the main towns. Travelling north, you'll keep on being told in indignant tones that it begins further north until you come to Waldeck and they've never heard of the term.
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jun 6, 2021 7:36:54 GMT
Polls have opened in the dullest most provincial state in the nation with the funniest most dysfunctional state gov't, Sachsen-Anhalt. There have been half a dozen polls released in the past couple weeks. There were only two released in several months before that.
CDU 25-301 AfD 23-262 Left 10-13 SPD 10-11 Greens 8-113 FDP 6-8
1 Lowest figure in earliest of these polls which is also the only one to show AfD ahead (and is INSA). Usual rally-round-the-flag centrist effect presumable. 2Best figures all INSA 3Tending to decline in later polls. These are still record figures, ie people who're natural CDU voters, or who're actually natural SPD voters but haven't done that in a while now, coming home.
What happens afterwards obviously depends on whether the ridiculously dysfunctional Kenya Coalition even wins a majority and what alternatives emerge. And how quiet those in the state CDU who prefer to work with the AfD manage to keep. The federal CDU definitely doesn't want that discussion to reach West German headline news anytime before the federal elections.
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Jun 6, 2021 8:55:14 GMT
Polls have opened in the dullest most provincial state in the nation with the funniest most dysfunctional state gov't, Sachsen-Anhalt. There have been half a dozen polls released in the past couple weeks. There were only two released in several months before that. CDU 25-30 1AfD 23-26 2Left 10-13 SPD 10-11 Greens 8-11 3FDP 6-8 1 Lowest figure in earliest of these polls which is also the only one to show AfD ahead (and is INSA). Usual rally-round-the-flag centrist effect presumable. 2Best figures all INSA 3Tending to decline in later polls. These are still record figures, ie people who're natural CDU voters, or who're actually natural SPD voters but haven't done that in a while now, coming home. What happens afterwards obviously depends on whether the ridiculously dysfunctional Kenya Coalition even wins a majority and what alternatives emerge. And how quiet those in the state CDU who prefer to work with the AfD manage to keep. The federal CDU definitely doesn't want that discussion to reach West German headline news anytime before the federal elections. With figures like this the FDP,should regain representation in the Landtag so a Jamacia coalition,could be another option.
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jun 6, 2021 10:30:51 GMT
Polls have opened in the dullest most provincial state in the nation with the funniest most dysfunctional state gov't, Sachsen-Anhalt. There have been half a dozen polls released in the past couple weeks. There were only two released in several months before that. CDU 25-30 1AfD 23-26 2Left 10-13 SPD 10-11 Greens 8-11 3FDP 6-8 1 Lowest figure in earliest of these polls which is also the only one to show AfD ahead (and is INSA). Usual rally-round-the-flag centrist effect presumable. 2Best figures all INSA 3Tending to decline in later polls. These are still record figures, ie people who're natural CDU voters, or who're actually natural SPD voters but haven't done that in a while now, coming home. What happens afterwards obviously depends on whether the ridiculously dysfunctional Kenya Coalition even wins a majority and what alternatives emerge. And how quiet those in the state CDU who prefer to work with the AfD manage to keep. The federal CDU definitely doesn't want that discussion to reach West German headline news anytime before the federal elections. With figures like this the FDP,should regain representation in the Landtag so a Jamacia coalition,could be another option. What I hate seeing referred to as a "Deutschland-Koalition" is actually more likely, not just on the numbers but - I think! - also in regards of how ready they'd be to work together. Many in these tiny East German SPD state parties feel that being in gov't is what keeps them in Parliament. We'll know more in 12 hours.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 6, 2021 16:55:12 GMT
Tagesschau reports that the CDU look to have increased their vote share on 2016, with the AfD down a point. No other clear figures being given though.
It looks like Die Linke ran out of ideas and just decided that Wessi-bashing would be the core message.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jun 6, 2021 17:01:02 GMT
Tagesschau reports that the CDU look to have increased their vote share on 2016, with the AfD down a point. No other clear figures being given though. It looks like Die Linke ran out of ideas and just decided that Wessi-bashing would be the core message. The initial Prognoses were ZDF - CDU 35 (+5); AfD 23,5 (-1); LIN 11 (-5); SPD 8 (-3), FDP 7 (+2), GRÜ 6 (+1) ARD - CDU 36 (+6); AfD 22,5 (-1); LIN 11 (-5); SPD 8,5 (-2), FDP 6,5 (+1). GRU 6,5 (+1)
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 6, 2021 17:05:51 GMT
Tagesschau reports that the CDU look to have increased their vote share on 2016, with the AfD down a point. No other clear figures being given though. It looks like Die Linke ran out of ideas and just decided that Wessi-bashing would be the core message. The initial Prognoses were ZDF - CDU 35 (+5); AfD 23,5 (-1); LIN 11 (-5); SPD 8 (-3), FDP 7 (+2), GRÜ 6 (+1) ARD - CDU 36 (+6); AfD 22,5 (-1); LIN 11 (-5); SPD 8,5 (-2), FDP 6,5 (+1). GRU 6,5 (+1) Poor for the SPD and Linke. If Die Linke are losing ground like that in the East, what kind of state must they be in "tief im Westen".
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jun 6, 2021 17:33:25 GMT
The initial Prognoses were ZDF - CDU 35 (+5); AfD 23,5 (-1); LIN 11 (-5); SPD 8 (-3), FDP 7 (+2), GRÜ 6 (+1) ARD - CDU 36 (+6); AfD 22,5 (-1); LIN 11 (-5); SPD 8,5 (-2), FDP 6,5 (+1). GRU 6,5 (+1) Poor for the SPD and Linke. If Die Linke are losing ground like that in the East, what kind of state must they be in "tief im Westen". Outside the Saar, they look very weak.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,251
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 6, 2021 17:38:49 GMT
The initial Prognoses were ZDF - CDU 35 (+5); AfD 23,5 (-1); LIN 11 (-5); SPD 8 (-3), FDP 7 (+2), GRÜ 6 (+1) ARD - CDU 36 (+6); AfD 22,5 (-1); LIN 11 (-5); SPD 8,5 (-2), FDP 6,5 (+1). GRU 6,5 (+1) Poor for the SPD and Linke. If Die Linke are losing ground like that in the East, what kind of state must they be in "tief im Westen". ? Sharp losses in the east are nothing new and aren't accompanied by the same trend in the west. (And by becoming a "normal" far-left party without any (N)ostalgia-baggage coalitioning with RedGreen will even be easier despite what it looks like on the surface.)
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 6, 2021 17:44:49 GMT
Poor for the SPD and Linke. If Die Linke are losing ground like that in the East, what kind of state must they be in "tief im Westen". Outside the Saar, they look very weak. There was an article in SDZ suggesting that Lafontaine is basically the only one keeping them afloat.
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jun 6, 2021 17:55:49 GMT
Poor for the SPD and Linke. If Die Linke are losing ground like that in the East, what kind of state must they be in "tief im Westen". ? Sharp losses in the east are nothing new and aren't accompanied by the same trend in the west. Quite. If it doesn't currently look great in the west either, that's because Baerbock is less toxic to the Green-Left-wasted swing demographic than arch Blackgreeners like Habeck and Özdemir and the Greens are riding absurdly high in the polls - not all these votes come from the center.
Meanwhile, this election? Huge consolidation behind Haseloff. I'd kinda hoped the Greens might at least beat the useless SPD. Instead they may fall behind the FDP.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jun 6, 2021 18:10:13 GMT
As probably the only person here who has been to Zeitz, it does not surprise me that it looks like it is staying AfD.
|
|
|
Post by independentukip on Jun 6, 2021 19:12:37 GMT
It's nice to see die Basis doing well compared to the other minor parties.
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jun 6, 2021 19:59:37 GMT
I'll need to have a closer look at these results some time after they're complete. Gotta see where those Left defectors really went. Possibly multiple directions (CDU, further bleeding of Ostalgics to the AfD, Greens, groups like Die Basis or FW, all quite possible. The Other vote is phenomenally high.) Let's see what infratest dimap says... looks like they didn't count the Others for this graph?
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jun 6, 2021 20:15:49 GMT
Starting to look like a one-seat CDU-SPD majority?
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,622
|
Post by European Lefty on Jun 6, 2021 20:17:03 GMT
I'll need to have a closer look at these results some time after they're complete. Gotta see where those Left defectors really went. Possibly multiple directions (CDU, further bleeding of Ostalgics to the AfD, Greens, groups like Die Basis or FW, all quite possible. The Other vote is phenomenally high.) Let's see what infratest dimap says... looks like they didn't count the Others for this graph? Am I reading that right, a plurality of people who voted for Die Linke in 2016 but not 2021 went to the CDU!?
|
|