Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 22, 2021 5:58:14 GMT
Districts: Universities, technical colleges (with the number of lecturers):
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 13, 2021 14:48:50 GMT
DeViations from national average in federal elections (measured at Valid Votes): Baden-Württemberg: Rhineland-Palatine:
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 13, 2021 14:54:11 GMT
BadenWürttembergers will have an awful choice: On the one hand a more and more confused PM - overwhelmed by being old, a greeny teacher, wife with cancer, pandemy; on the other hand a CDU-challenger, whose nomen est omen: Eisenmann ("IronMan"), a bad-tempered "broom" (~witch).
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 13, 2021 14:59:00 GMT
In Rhineland-Palatine SPD will (with a surge in the final few days as 5 years ago) once again - despite the region's light-right inclinition - defend the PMship. The only chance my maths found for CDU would have needed: Relative majority for them and CDU&AfD with a maj. of seats or CDU&AfD&TheLeft (as FDP wouldn't have worked together with SPD&TheGreens&TheLeft).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 14, 2021 14:51:13 GMT
SDZ report that turnout in Baden-Württemberg was 19.6 per cent at 2pm, against 35.6 last time out. The likely explanation is the huge increase in postal votes, but who knows (the weather is also pretty bad). They reckon 36 per cent of all voters voted by post. There's not much to go on.
R-P seems to be clearer- including postal voters, the numbers of which they are reporting, it looks like they had 52 per cent turnout by 12pm.
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 14, 2021 17:16:53 GMT
ZDF are predicting the Free Voters on 5.5% in Rheinland -Pflaz which would give them representation for the first time ever with them taking 6 seats.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 14, 2021 17:33:07 GMT
Rheinland-Pfalz exit poll prediction (seats):
SPD: 38 (-1) CDU: 29 (-6) AFD: 12 (-2) Grüne: 9 (+3) FDP: 7 FW: 6 (+6)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 14, 2021 18:23:40 GMT
ZDF are predicting the Free Voters on 5.5% in Rheinland -Pflaz which would give them representation for the first time ever with them taking 6 seats. I mentioned in another thread that they could cause some problems, but I'm surprised to see them make it. Surely angry CDU voters have seen them over the line.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 14, 2021 18:25:31 GMT
SDZ are suggesting that the SPD, CDU and AfD have all lost ground in Baden-Württemberg, with the Greens and (surprisingly) the FDP gaining. The FDP are projected to take 11 per cent!
Edit: the latest projection for the FDP is only 0.4 per cent behind the SPD. The CDU had better start hoping for crossover to deflect from their own disaster.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,516
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Post by Khunanup on Mar 14, 2021 18:32:37 GMT
SDZ are suggesting that the SPD, CDU and AfD have all lists ground in Baden-Württemberg, with the Greens and (surprisingly) the FDP gaining. The FDP are projected to take 11 per cent! As the FDP in BW is broad based and long time entrenched, that's good to hear. Now, if only the federal party would learn some lessons...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 14, 2021 20:14:20 GMT
Latest projection is that the FW in R-P will overtake the FDP.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 14, 2021 21:43:24 GMT
GreenRed in BaWü may end up making it. AfD seems to have been declining in both states as the count progressed? That's a new one.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 14, 2021 23:38:26 GMT
Meanwhile in Rhineland-Palatinate, the Greens have gained Mainz I [read: Mainz Central], the only single member constituency in that Landtag not represented by either the SPD or CDU. This happened despite the Climate List (or Klimaliste) splitting the Green vote in that SMC. Furthermore the Greens moved from fifth place to third overall in that state election with 9.3%.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 15, 2021 6:11:21 GMT
GreenRed in BaWü may end up making it. they didn't - exactly have half the seats. Greens 58 (and yes that means they won 58 out of 70 direct seats) CDU 42 SPD 19 FDP 18 AfD 17 Redgreen is also at 49 out of 101 seats in RhP, where there is no overhang as the CDU continues to outperform in the direct vote there. Edit for weird typo
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 15, 2021 16:16:26 GMT
GreenRed in BaWü may end up making it. they didn't - exactly have the seats. Greens 58 (and yes that means they won 58 out of 70 direct seats) Another glorious outcome of their ridiculous electoral system, which CDU has now and again refused to alter albeit all attempts. Kretschmann will be relieved though, that the party-base cannot demand GreenRed.
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Foggy
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Long may it rain
Posts: 5,507
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Post by Foggy on Mar 16, 2021 4:57:20 GMT
they didn't - exactly have the seats. Greens 58 (and yes that means they won 58 out of 70 direct seats) Another glorious outcome of their ridiculous electoral system, which CDU has now and again refused to alter albeit all attempts. Kretschmann will be relieved though, that the party-base cannot demand GreenRed. The only part that's outrageous about it are the Ausgleichsmandate. I'd take everything else about the system in BW in a heartbeat. A Landtag capped at 120 seats would deliver a sensible compromise between proportionality and stability. The CDU would've won under that rule in 2006, whilst the Greens would still have been short of a majority this time. Mainz-I was mentioned by greenhert as the only interesting constituency contest in RP. It looks like there have been significant boundary changes there and that the Greens wouldn't have won had that seat been drawn the way it used to be. And the SPD were still well ahead on the list vote there anyway. The only such changes in BW were the swapping of a few towns between Balingen and Tübingen, which may have contributed to the former producing the only countercyclical swing of the night (i.e. from the Greens to the CDU). In the only two FPTP contests where the AfD had won last time, they sank to fourth place. Nevertheless, one of those – namely Pforzheim – was still their best result statewide with over 15% of the vote. In the other, Mannheim-I (basically Mannheim North), the Greens also made a gain, but the SPD remained in second spot in their former stronghold. With more than a 20% share, it too was their strongest performance across the whole Bundesland.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 16, 2021 13:18:29 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 16, 2021 16:25:02 GMT
Another glorious outcome of their ridiculous electoral system, which CDU has now and again refused to alter albeit all attempts. Kretschmann will be relieved though, that the party-base cannot demand GreenRed. The only part that's outrageous about it are the Ausgleichsmandate. the problem being the specific way they are calculated, which almost produced a freak fake green-red majority (they have slightly fewer votes than CDU+FDP+AfD) and more predictably leaves the rural southeast of the state, where there was no overhang, massively underrepresented. This is an issue that cd easily be fixed w/o dismantling the system's core features of no vote splitting and no lists.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 16, 2021 21:41:38 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 1, 2021 12:55:08 GMT
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