Prediction Competition - June 2018

[robbienicoll]

There are 20 elections for 24 seats in June - 17 by-elections along with 3 elections deferred from 3 May.
* 7 June – 3 by-elections
* 14 June - 1 by-election and 1 deferred election
* 21 June – 9 by-elections and 2 deferred elections
* 28 June – 4 by-elections

10 of the by-elections are for district councils which had all out contests in 2015, 4 being single member seats
- although 1 has since had a by-election (2015)
6 by-elections are for a Borough Council, 1 being a single member seat
- 4 are elected by thirds, last contested on 3 May 2018
- 2 had all out contests in 2015
- 1 of these has since had a by-election (2018)
1 by-election is for a Metropolitan Borough which had all out contests in 2017
1 by-election is for a County Council which had all out contests in 2017, and is a single member seat
2 deferred elections are for London Borough Councils that holds all out elections every four years
1 deferred election is for a District Council elected in thirds

Conservatives are defending 11 seats, 3 following the death of the previous Councillor, 6 resignations, 1 disqualification for non-attendance and 1 deferred
Labour defend 5 seats, 2 following a resignation, and 3 seats deferred
Liberal Democrats defend 4 seats following 1 resignation and 3 seats deferred (notional boundaries)
UKIP defend 2 seats following resignations although 1 was sitting as an Independent with
Independents defending 2 seats, 1 following a resignation and 1 following a death.

Conservatives are contesting all 24 seats, Labour 23, Liberal Democrats 21, Greens 9, UKIP 4, Independents 5, BNP 1
along with 2 Lincolnshire Independents and 1 Yorkshire Party - a total of 90 candidates for the 24 seats.

The deferred elections will be counted using the AVERAGE vote method.

All predictions on this thread or by private message to me by 9.00 am on day of the election.

[robbienicoll]

I will also be accepting predictions for the Lewisham East Parliamentary by-election taking place on 14 June. This follows the resignation of the Labour MP Heidi Alexander after her appointment as the Mayor of London’s Deputy Mayor of Transport.
Contesting parties are Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, Greens, UKIP, Women’s Equality Party, Monster Raving Loony, For Britain, Christian People’s Alliance, No Description, Democrats and Veterans, Young People’s Party, Radical Party and Libertarians.
This will be separate from the council by-elections competition, so prospective posters shouldn’t worry about having to commit to posting weekly, likewise regular posters will not suffer faults for not submitting an entry for this. Winner gets bragging rights!

[yellowperil]

Jun 4, 2018 23:42:46 GMT robbienicoll said:

I will also be accepting predictions for the Lewisham East Parliamentary by-election taking place on 14 June. This follows the resignation of the Labour MP Heidi Alexander after her appointment as the Mayor of London’s Deputy Mayor of Transport.
Contesting parties are Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, Greens, UKIP, Women’s Equality Party, Monster Raving Loony, For Britain, Christian People’s Alliance, No Description, Democrats and Veterans, Young People’s Party, Radical Party and Libertarians.
This will be separate from the council by-elections competition, so prospective posters shouldn’t worry about having to commit to posting weekly, likewise regular posters will not suffer faults for not submitting an entry for this. Winner gets bragging rights!

I like it, but if we are quoting percentage points for each of these parties how many decimal points do you require?

[robbienicoll]

Jun 5, 2018 12:53:43 GMT yellowperil said:

Jun 4, 2018 23:42:46 GMT robbienicoll said:

I will also be accepting predictions for the Lewisham East Parliamentary by-election taking place on 14 June. This follows the resignation of the Labour MP Heidi Alexander after her appointment as the Mayor of London’s Deputy Mayor of Transport.
Contesting parties are Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, Greens, UKIP, Women’s Equality Party, Monster Raving Loony, For Britain, Christian People’s Alliance, No Description, Democrats and Veterans, Young People’s Party, Radical Party and Libertarians.
This will be separate from the council by-elections competition, so prospective posters shouldn’t worry about having to commit to posting weekly, likewise regular posters will not suffer faults for not submitting an entry for this. Winner gets bragging rights!

I like it, but if we are quoting percentage points for each of these parties how many decimal points do you require?

1 dp will be fine. Don't think the bottom end will incur too many faults unless there's a surprise package somewhere!

[syorkssocialist]

Predictions for 07/06/18

East Staffordshire, Crown: Con 68, Lab 24, LD 8
Mid Devon, Cranmore: Con 58, Lab 29, LD 13
South Oxfordshire, Benson & Crowmarsh: Con 48, LD 35, Lab 17

[Deleted]

Crown (East Staffs): Con 70 Lab 22 LD 8
Cranmore (Mid Devon): Con 55 LD 34 Lab 11
Benson & Crowmarsh (South. Oxon): Con 49 LD 41 Lab 10

[ricmk]

Hi, can I jump back on board with the prediction comp? Not sure I'll keep it up for long but let's see. I fancy at least 1 Lib Dem gain this week:

MID DEVON: LD 46 Con 39 Lab 15
SOUTH OXFORDSHIRE: LD 47 Con 43 Lab 10
EAST STAFFORDSHIRE: Con 70 Lab 25 LD 5

Good luck and thanks Robbie for organising the competition

[greenhert]

Mid Devon DC, Cranmore: Liberal Democrats 44, Conservative 40, Labour 16.
South Oxfordshire DC, Benson & Crowmarsh: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 43, Labour 12.
East Staffordshire DC, Crown: Conservative 72, Labour 24, Liberal Democrats 4.

[Robert Waller]

Mid Devon DC, Cranmore: Liberal Democrats 43, Conservative 42, Labour 15.
South Oxfordshire DC, Benson & Crowmarsh: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 44, Labour 11.
East Staffordshire DC, Crown: Conservative 70, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 20.

[andrewp]

Mid Devon, Cranmore Lib Dem 42, Con 41, Lab 17
South Oxfordshire, Benson and Crowmarsh Lib Dem 47, Con 43, Lab 10
East Staffordshire, Crown, Con 66, Lib Dem 18, Lab 16.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

EAST STAFFORDSHIRE Crown: C 73, L Dem 20, Lab 7
MID DEVON Cranmore: L Dem 42, C 37, Lab 21
SOUTH OXFORDSHIRE Benson and Crowmarsh: L Dem 58, C 32, Lab 10

[yellowperil]

East Staffs, Crown: Con 70, Lab 18.LD 12
Mid Devon, Cranmore: Con 40, Lab 18, LD 42
South Oxon, Benson & Crowmarsh: Con 41, Lab 16. LD 43

[olympian95]

East staffs Con 78, Lab 13, LD 9

Mid Devon LD 46, Con 40, Lab 14

South Ox LD 51, Con 37, Lab 12

[Right Leaning]

Mid Devon DC, Cranmore: LD 47, C 41, Lab 12.
South Oxfordshire DC, Benson & Crowmarsh: LD 46, C 42, Lab 12.
East Staffordshire DC, Crown: C 72, LD 18, Lab 10,

[hempie]

Mid Devon, Cranmore: LD 45, Con 43, Lab 12
South Oxfordshire, Benson & Crowmarsh: LD 48, Con 46,Lab 6
East Staffordshire, Crown: Con 69, Lab 22, LD 9

[Deleted]

Mid Devon DC, Cranmore: LD 12, C 53, Lab 35.
South Oxfordshire DC, Benson & Crowmarsh: LD 30, C 60, Lab 10.
East Staffordshire DC, Crown: C 65, LD 25, Lab 10,

[robbienicoll]

12 entries this month, with very welcome returns from ricmk and europeanlefty. All posted on time and added correctly so no faults so far!

Crown, East Staffordshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majority ranging from 40% (priceofdawn over Liberal Democrats) to 65% (olympian95 over Labour)
Cranmore, Mid Devon: 9 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with europeanlefty, priceofdawn and syorkssocialist Conservative hold
Benson and Crowmarsh, South Oxfordshire: 9 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with europeanlefty, priceofdawn and syorkssocialist Conservative hold.

Spreadsheet with live updates available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yV4h-Jp3w4Z-iX6Dy3WIlHBW-W-jTqLpSngsgFiJKmo/edit?usp=sharing - and final results will be posted at some point tomorrow. Good luck to all!

[yellowperil]

Well done to Robbie for a faultless (!) performance running the competition for the first time and so smoothly- middleenglander should be proud of you. And congrats to David for pulling off the performance of the week. We are all so tightly bunched, nothing has been decided for the month though, and next week should be very interesting and a bit more challenging for us all, not least Robbie!.

[robbienicoll]

Thank you yellowperil, it's very interesting to see results from this side of the fence, and also good for me cause I would have been way off in Mid Devon!

Crown, East Staffordshire: Olympian95 picks up the win with 5.5, followed by yellowperil on 12.2 and Right Leaning on 12.5
Cranmore, Mid Devon: Europeanlefty wins with 22.8 (congrats to him, priceofdawn and syorkssocialist for getting the winner right), followed by a three way tie between andrewp, David Boothroyd and yellowperil for second on 28.9, and robertwaller on 30.9
Benson and Crowmarsh, South Oxfordshire: David Boothroyd takes this contest with 8.0, followed by olympian95 on 12.7 and hempie on 20.0

For the week (and month so far) this gives David Boothroyd in 1st on 53.4, olympian95 2nd on 55.2 and a tie for third between yellowperil and andrewp on 69.9. Spreadsheet with all the results is available further upthread. Congrats to all for a close week, as YP says it's very much all to play for! 
 

[middleenglander]

The Conservatives actually polled 685 votes in Benson & Crowmarsh, not the 658 reported on the night and used in the calculation for faults.