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Post by middleenglander on Jun 21, 2018 21:45:09 GMT
West Somerset, Alcombe is a UKIP sitting as Independent seat where UKIP are not defending.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 21, 2018 21:46:10 GMT
I think we agree that Alcombe is the most unpredictable. It’s an ‘unusual’ place. I wouldn’t be surprised by any of the 4 candidates winning.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2018 22:47:05 GMT
I think we agree that Alcombe is the most unpredictable. It’s an ‘unusual’ place. I wouldn’t be surprised by any of the 4 candidates winning. Can I use that as my defence for racking up 70 faults? |
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Post by syorkssocialist on Jun 21, 2018 22:55:42 GMT
I think we agree that Alcombe is the most unpredictable. It’s an ‘unusual’ place. I wouldn’t be surprised by any of the 4 candidates winning. The most unpredictable was Whittlewood by a country mile! |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 21, 2018 22:56:42 GMT
I think we agree that Alcombe is the most unpredictable. It’s an ‘unusual’ place. I wouldn’t be surprised by any of the 4 candidates winning. The most unpredictable was Whittlewood by a country mile! Until Astwell, maybe! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 21, 2018 23:06:20 GMT
With four contests left this month, Right Leaning is in the clear lead. I think Yellow Peril is second, followed by Hempie, David and Andrew. As I'm still 6th, there will be a new winner, hooray!
I have included Charnwood in my estimates, which is probably missing from Robbie's spreadsheet as yet because we don't have exact vote totals.
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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 21, 2018 23:10:57 GMT
With four contests left this month, Right Leaning is in the clear lead. I think Yellow Peril is second, followed by Hempie, David and Andrew. As I'm still 6th, there will be a new winner, hooray! I have included Charnwood in my estimates, which is probably missing from Robbie's spreadsheet as yet because we don't have exact vote totals. Yes, that's around the point I'm at as well. Whittlewood aside, performance across the board has been very strong. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 22, 2018 0:07:53 GMT
With just Basingstoke to come, I now think it's going to be very close between RL, YP and Hempie, with Andrew P just behind.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2018 3:20:55 GMT
With four contests left this month, Right Leaning is in the clear lead. I think Yellow Peril is second, followed by Hempie, David and Andrew. As I'm still 6th, there will be a new winner, hooray!I have included Charnwood in my estimates, which is probably missing from Robbie's spreadsheet as yet because we don't have exact vote totals. Actually with those 4 results next week and one counting Friday, the margin is still bridgeable so I wouldn't put money on you not pulling it back  |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2018 6:37:20 GMT
Apologies for the delay in getting the spiel out, as inferred to in the Useless Facts thread it's been a very stressful week and typical it had to happen on a Super Thursday. All present and correct, with syorkssocialist returning after last week's absence, although Yellow Peril and Priceofdawn both receive one fault for adding to 99% in Alcombe and 101% in Whittlewood respectively. Lee Chapel North, Basildon: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (greenrobinhood) to 34% (yellowperil) Pitsea South East, Basildon: 9 Conservative gain from UKIP, with yellowperil and syorkssocialist Labour gain Kempshott, Basingstoke and Deane: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 19% (syorkssocialist) to 43% (priceofdawn and yellowperil) Willesden Green, Brent: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 35% (Right Leaning) to 49% (hempie and robertwaller) Quorn and Montsorrel Castle, Charnwood: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 23% (europeanlefty) to 35% (greenrobinhood) Bicester West, Chirwell: 8 Conservative hold, with ricmk, priceofdawn and syorkssocialist Independent gain Birch, Fenland: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 30% (andrewp) to 42% (europeanlefty) Astwell, South Northamptonshire: 100% Conservative hold, all majorities between 44%-54% Whittlewood, South Northamptonshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 20% (ricmk) to 53% (greenrobinhood) Oxhey, Watford: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 28% (europeanlefty) to 49% (David Boothroyd) Alcombe, West Somerset: 6 Conservative gain from UKIP, with yellowperil, hempie, Right Leaning and syorkssocialist Liberal Democrat gain and priceofdawn Labour gain Spreadsheet is available at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ihg4tKYrf9lTgu4BGwknQM30Yc_ZuRraJZMJtjh0XYY/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! Have only just cross referenced to Useless facts to see what it was held you up- OMG! Well done for getting this all out at all in the circumstances! |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2018 8:14:05 GMT
While we await Basingstoke and confirmation from Robbie's spreadsheet on Charnwood and Brent, I make it that Hempie has atm just squeezed into second place, pushing me down to third and Andrew to fourth,but so very close I might be wrong. All to play for at least with the top 6 !
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 22, 2018 8:21:25 GMT
With two elections in the last six months, Kempshott ward ought to have been the easiest to predict...
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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 22, 2018 8:29:51 GMT
That's Brent and Charnwood just gone up, hempie has actually just gone into first but with 1.2 faults separating him and Right Leaning, and ~30 faults between 1st and 6th, so very close indeed.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2018 10:34:04 GMT
With two elections in the last six months, Kempshott ward ought to have been the easiest to predict... We'll soon know , I presume, in this case, but I wonder whether anyone has made a study of what happens in wards where there are frequent by-elections- do they keep producing more or less the same result? Or does fatigue set in for the chasing pack if they keep losing? Or are frequent by-elections a sign of a greater malaise until the electorate suddenly change allegiance to another party? I guess would could all dig out examples to fit all 3 of those scenarios. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2018 10:48:54 GMT
I think to a significant degree, it depends on how and why the vacancies occurred.
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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 22, 2018 11:25:09 GMT
I'll post a full spiel when I'm back from work, but congrats to syorkssocialist for a very strong performance on the week, taking it by over 40 faults ahead of hempie, who also deserves congratulations as the front runner for the month, 5 ahead of Right Leaning.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 22, 2018 12:18:30 GMT
Think Kempshott clinches it for Hempie. Many congratulations, and to the others who ran close!
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2018 12:40:25 GMT
One might have thought though that after a big week like this one we would have a pretty good idea of who would win the month but with 4 elections still on the table and only 22 points between 1st and 6th anyone could win(watch out for Robert, he's done this before) , though my money might be on the man with the SYStem.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 22, 2018 13:00:13 GMT
Robert is still placed nicely at the back of the pack........
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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 23, 2018 7:06:05 GMT
Lee Chapel North, Basildon: David Boothroyd takes this one with 4.1 faults, ahead of europeanlefty and priceofdawn
Pitsea South East, Basildon: syorkssocialist wins with 1.3, yellowperil being the only other to predict a Labour win, they are followed by andrewp in third
Kempshott, Basingstoke and Deane: europeanlefty wins with 8.9, followed by hempie and syorkssocialist
Willesden Green, Brent: Very close between the top three, with andrewp securing first on 18.4 followed by hempie with 1.2 more faults and then yellowperil with another 0.4 faults
Quorn and Mountsorrel Castle, Charnwood: hempie takes the win with 10 faults, followed by robertwaller and then a tie for third between David Boothroyd and europeanlefty
Bicester West, Chirwell: syorkssocialist gets his second individual win with 10.1, with ricmk and priceofdawn following having been the three to get the winner right
Birch, Fenland: Another syorkssocialist win on 2.2, ahead of ricmk and robertwaller
Astwell, South Northamptonshire: Three way tie for first place between robertwaller, europeanlefty and priceofdawn on 0.3, overall faults were 56.7!
Whittlewood, South Northamptonshire: The opposite of its sister ward in terms of overall faults! Ricmk wins with 53.3 faults, followed by Right Leaning and syorkssocialist
Oxhey, Watford: europeanlefty takes his third individual win with 2.8, followed by greenrobinhood and robertwaller
Alcombe, West Somerset: hempie gets his second win with 19.8, followed by Right Leaning and syorkssocialist
This leaves syorkssocialist as the winner of the week on 208.4 ahead of hempie (250.5) and Right Leaning (255.4). Hempie rises to become the frontrunner for the month on 355.3, followed by Right Leaning (360.5) and andrewp (366.8). Spreadsheet available further upthread for the full results. There are 4 by-elections next week, so very much still to play for. Congrats to all on a very strong week, Whittlewood notwithstanding!
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