Prediction Competition - June 2018

[robbienicoll]

Jun 11, 2018 0:40:10 GMT middleenglander said:

The Conservatives actually polled 685 votes in Benson & Crowmarsh, not the 658 reported on the night and used in the calculation for faults.

Have amended the results based on this, which only made one change to the final rankings and it was that olympian95 displaced David Boothroyd as the winner of the week, with 53.5 and 55.2 faults respectively. Thanks to ME for the tip.

[greenhert]

My predictions for this week are as follows:

Doncaster MBC, Town: Labour 50, Yorkshire First 25, Conservative 11, Liberal Democrats 5, Independent 5, Green 4.

Southwark LBC, London Bridge & West Bermondsey (postponed poll): Labour 42, Liberal Democrats 39 Conservative 13, Green 6; 2 Lab and 1 LD elected within the 3 seats available.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I think the Southwark postponed poll will be part of the competition.

[yellowperil]

Jun 13, 2018 21:04:28 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I think the Southwark postponed poll will be part of the competition.

That is certainly what Robbie indicated and said would be based on average method which could be a significant factor to take into account. I'm still mulling over what I think of this one, and that  certain other election not that far away which will be subject to a separate competition if anyone is brave enough to try- I was ready to put my answer in for Doncaster but will try to put something in for everything before the deadline.

[andrewp]

I was going to put Southwark and Doncaster predictions in.

[Robert Waller]

Doncaster MBC, Town: Labour 57, Yorkshire First 15, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrats 5, Independent 5, Green 3.



Southwark LBC, London Bridge & West Bermondsey (postponed poll): Labour 41, Liberal Democrats 43 Conservative 10, Green 6

(2 LD and 1 Lab elected)

[European Lefty]

London Bridge & West Bermondsey (Southwark): LD 45 Lab 40 Con 10 Grn 5

2 LibDem, 1 Lab elected

Town (Doncaster): Lab 51 YP 21 Con 16 LD 5 Grn 4 Ind 3

[Davıd Boothroyd]

DONCASTER Town: Lab 51, C 21, YP 15, GP 7, Ind 4, L Dem 2
SOUTHWARK London Bridge and Bermondsey West: L Dem 52, Lab 34, C 8, GP 6

Think this is the first time in four years of the prediction competition that there are literally no previous results to go on (previous one being Blackwall and Cubitt Town in 2014)

[yellowperil]

Southwark, London Bridge & Bermondsey W: LD 44,Lab 38, Con 10, Green 8
Doncaster , Town: Lab 48,Yorks 28, Con 16, Green 4, LD 2, Ind 2

[yellowperil]

Lewisham East Parliamentary By-Election

Lab 47
LD 26
Con 14
Green 4
UKIP 2
Ind 1.5
FB  1.3
CPA 1.2
Liber 0.8
YPP 0.8
WEP 0.8
OMRLP 0.2
Rad 0.2
D Vet 0.2

That may be totally wrong - my best chance of winning will be if I win by default as nobody else could be bothered.....
 

[andrewp]

Doncaster, Town. Lab 47, Yorkshire 24, Con 15, Green 5, Ind 5, Lib Dem 4
Southwark, London Bridge and Bermondsey Lib Dem 45, Lab 37, Con 10, Green 8

[yellowperil]

Lewisham East: As the polls are now open for this one, if we apply the usual rules it should be now too late for anyone to join in without penalty, unless of course they have all entered by PM direct to Robbie. Failing that I will happily declare myself the winner by default and save Robbie the task of adding up a mountain of faults.

[Right Leaning]

Doncaster MBC, Town: Lab 45, YF 24, C 19, LD 5, Gn 4, Ind 3,

Southwark LBC, London Bridge & West Bermondsey: LD 46, Lab 40, C 11, Green 3

[robbienicoll]

Jun 14, 2018 6:34:13 GMT yellowperil said:

Lewisham East: As the polls are now open for this one, if we apply the usual rules it should be now too late for anyone to join in without penalty, unless of course they have all entered by PM direct to Robbie. Failing that I will happily declare myself the winner by default and save Robbie the task of adding up a mountain of faults.

9am is the deadline! Haven't had any PMs though, so anyone who wishes to deny YP a win by default has half an hour!

[hempie]

Doncaster, Town: Lab 58, YF 19, Con 13, LD 4, Ind 3, Green 3
Southwark, London Bridge & West Bermondsey: LD 44, Lab 41, Con 8, Green 7
(2 LD and 1 Lab elected)

[Deleted]

London Bridge & West Bermondsey (Southwark): LD 37 Lab 42 Con 17 Grn 4

1 LibDem, 2 Lab elected

Town (Doncaster): Lab 60 YP 6 Con 30 LD 1 Grn 2 Ind 1

Lewisham East: Lab 55 LD 19 Con 14 Green 4 UKIP 1 others 2

[ricmk]

Doncaster: Lab 50, Con 20 Yorkshire 15 LD 5, Gn 5, Ind 5

Southwark: LD 40 Lab 37 Con18 Green 5

Lewisham: Lab 53 LD 23 Con 18 odds and sods 6

[yellowperil]

@priceofdawn - at least has responded to all that provocation and made robbienicoll work at his calculations. To my mind though, lumping all the last 9 candidates together as others is not in the spirit of the contest- and that may be the bit that put everybody else  off . I think that should give penalty points for every vote each minor candidates get, and should help even up if the Lab/LD split is more like PoD's forecast than mine.  
edit- while I was writing this another entry ricmk has also dipped under the deadline and all I can say is I think the same should apply to a lump of oddsand sods

[robbienicoll]

10 entries this week, with nothing from syorkssocialist or last week's winner olympian95. I also believe ricmk posted around five minutes over the deadline, so will get a provisional five fault penalty although I'll double check the exact time of the post later tonight and firm that up.

Town, Doncaster: 100% Labour hold, with majority ranging from 20% (yellowperil over the Conservatives) to 42% (robertwaller over a tied 2nd between the Yorkshire Party and Conservatives)
London Bridge and West Bermondsey, Southwark: 8 Liberal Democrat win, with greenrobinhood and priceofdawn Labour win

Re: Lewisham East, I'll post the full spiel after the World Cup match, but I'm appreciative that the minor parties are not the most riveting aspect of any by-election and getting it all to add to 100 would've been a nightmare, however I also appreciate it wouldn't be fair to have YP do all that work and lose out, so I'll take the "other" predictions from priceofdawn and ricmk and split them evenly amongst those parties not named, faults will then be calculated from there. 

[robbienicoll]

Lewisham East: 100% Labour hold, with majority ranging from 21% (yellowperil) to 36% (priceofdawn), all over the Liberal Democrats. Ricmk receives the provisional five point penalty subject to later review, and priceofdawn also receives five faults for only adding to 95%. For the breakdown of the "others", priceofdawn gave 2% to 9 parties giving each 0.2%, whilst ricmk gave 6% to 11 parties giving each 0.5%.

Spreadsheets for the locals are available at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-MPFjz2SiRLFnZIeJ-ZbwmJuQf6O4_cemgyJ1qkLU6E/edit?usp=sharing and the Lewisham spreadsheet is available at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-6OjdiCNzqS5jNnI7KA3FHmdU_a7oaOFpSvqzcQOCo0/edit?usp=sharing. Good luck to all!