Irish elections

[Georg Ebner]

Dec 2, 2024 18:42:02 GMT Old Fashioned Leftie said:

Final results looks like:

FF:48
FG:38 = 86

SF:39
LAB:11
SD:11
PBP:3
GN:1
AON:2
IND/OTH:21 = 88

So will FFG choose SD/LP or prefer a minority relying on Ind.s?

[dizz]

Nov 7, 2024 11:01:58 GMT dizz said:

Nov 3, 2024 10:36:39 GMT dizz said:

So, I've been in Ireland for over a week and the forthcoming election hit us from the first night in

Kerry

So far declared candidates:

2 Healy-Rae's
3 FF (!)
1 FG (!)
1 SF (!)
1 Lab
1 Green/Aontu/PBP/2 further Independents (one the son of an FF TD) /Irish Freedom Party,

Present TDs: 2 Healy-Rae's, 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF with (just) the FG TD retiring.

On arrival in Killarney, there were only FG and 1 FF leaflets through the door with the FF one much more local/specific. On the N22 there are parked lorries backing the same FF person and Danny Healy-Rae (Killarney voters were asked to preference him first in 2020) and in town 2 of the FF candidates have election offices.

I don't see Lab (with a candidate some way from their remaining Tralee 'strongerhold') or the others put in the one line above getting enough traction so, if SF and FG are only going for 1 seat each, then it is most likely just FF pushing for a second TD at the expense of one of the other parties/Healy-Rae's i.e. there are 7 bigger candidates (including all 3 FFs) going for 5 seats with the most likely outcome being no change from the present. Of course it would be great to see 1 FF edge out either a Healy-Rae or the SF but the major battle is likely to be between the 3 of them to come ahead of the other 2.

Kerry update

SF are now running two here. Makes sense & balancing the ticket with a South Kerry candidate makes sense too though she was not elected in the Kenmare local election ward earlier this year.

Also got a leaflet from Norma Foley one of the FF candidates & also sitting in the cabinet as Minister for Education so the work is being pit in for her in South Kerry too.

Kerry post-race analysis:

So the FF strategy of 3 candidates worked as they took the FG seat to leave the County having:

2FFs and 2 HRs and 1 SF.

We came back to the UK the weekend before the election but had 3 weeks there including nights in Dingle and Listowel to check out the story there.

We are not ordinarily resident so were never canvassed and got only the 3 leaflets referenced above as regards which the 2FFs were much more specific and so better (is the Shannon estuary that relevant to Killarney ).

There were though stacks of posters up though not many in home windows.

The HR strategy was to promote Danny in Killarney & Michael outside the Killarney local seat. Worked with polling slightly up on 2020.

The 3 FFs were really all over the county & backed-up by parked lorry trailers etc. Normal Foley is seen as hardworking & sensible on issues.

SF's Pa Daly also seen as sensible (a solicitor by trade) and his vote was solid to get elected 2nd but with the late inclusion of a second SF candidate his posters did not promote her and I never saw a single poster for her (did not go into the ring past Caragh) so I was surprised she got 1,114 votes even.

Billy O'Shea of FG had plenty of empty buildings backing him i.e. lots of landlords (as well as a colourful and varied family history) but the FF guy who beat him into 6th would have had his work as a local councillor to his credit.

Labour had loads of posters but the candidate must have been disappointed to run behind the greens and to have been overtaken by Aontu. Other Independents did not make a big show.

[andrea]

Dec 2, 2024 17:11:40 GMT andrea said:

Dec 2, 2024 15:55:42 GMT andrea said:

Still counting

Cavan-Monaghan: Count 12

1 seat of 5 filled
2 Sinn Féin, 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 Aontù left in the race

Louth: Count 19

2 seats of 5 filled
1 Lab, 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 Fine Gael

Tipperary North: Count 9

1 seat of 3 filled
1 Labour, 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 Fine Gael, 1 Ind left

Cork North-Central: all seats filled. Recount underway

Louth
Paula Butterly of Fine Gael, Erin McGreehan of Fianna Fáil and Ger Nash of Labour elected

Tipperary North
Labour's Alan Kelly and Fianna Fáil's Ryan O'Meara elected


Situation in Cavan-Monaghan is

SF 10,981
FF 10,313
FF 10,062
AON 8,490
SF 8,220

They are now redistributing the 7,868 preferences of the third Sinners.
So it is going to be 2 FF and SF

Sinn Fein's Matt Carthy and Cathy Bennett were elected

2 seats left to be filled
FF 10,856
FF 10,616
Aontù 9,129

Now distributing Bennett's surplus (1,841 votes)

[manchesterman]

Dec 2, 2024 19:39:38 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Dec 2, 2024 18:42:02 GMT Old Fashioned Leftie said:

Final results looks like:

FF:48
FG:38 = 86

SF:39
LAB:11
SD:11
PBP:3
GN:1
AON:2
IND/OTH:21 = 88

So will FFG choose SD/LP or prefer a minority relying on Ind.s?

I think the latter, looking for support from like-minded Indies

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Dec 2, 2024 19:39:38 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Dec 2, 2024 18:42:02 GMT Old Fashioned Leftie said:

Final results looks like:

FF:48
FG:38 = 86

SF:39
LAB:11
SD:11
PBP:3
GN:1
AON:2
IND/OTH:21 = 88

So will FFG choose SD/LP or prefer a minority relying on Ind.s?

Independent Ireland is a strong possibility with their 4 TDs - 84 in opposition to 90 government seems reasonably stable, and one of their spokesmen has stated their willingness to enter a FF-FG coalition.

[greenhert]

All 174 Dail seats have now been filled.

Since Aontu narrowly failed to get the last seat in Cavan-Monaghan, the final seat totals are exactly as Old Fashioned Leftie said.

The new Irish government will be finalised in January 2025.

[edgbaston]

[Georg Ebner]

Dec 2, 2024 21:55:14 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

Dec 2, 2024 19:39:38 GMT Georg Ebner said:

So will FFG choose SD/LP or prefer a minority relying on Ind.s?

Independent Ireland is a strong possibility with their 4 TDs - 84 in opposition to 90 government seems reasonably stable, and one of their spokesmen has stated their willingness to enter a FF-FG coalition.

But would FFG take II? With "Ind.s" i meant more the independent Independents...

[uthacalthing]

So I looked up Independent Ireland because it is a meaningless word salad or only two words

Their people of note include Michael Collins which was encouraging but it seems to its
not one,and they don't even appear to be related. Sad.

Wikipedia "The report featured Collins and estimated him to be a millionaire, suggesting he had property assets worth almost €850,000 alone.[5]"

Wow to fuck. A man who owns a home worth £500k. Every one of these rich bastards ought to be culled if they are Labour voters eh?

But it reminded me to cancel my £1 a month sub to Wiki

[dizz]

Nov 30, 2024 16:59:10 GMT dizz said:

Nov 30, 2024 15:20:30 GMT dizz said:

Here's my best guess at 3.20PM based on counting/tallies:

Donegal(5): 3SF 1MICA 1FF - the 3rd SF seat ended up a second FF as SF had very poor transfers between themselves when starting from a total first preference vote of 41.8% - the third one did very poorly from Doherty transfers with 75+% going to the 2nd SF thus leaving him in 7th.
Cavan-Monaghan (5): 2FF 2SF 1FG
Sligo-Leitrim (4): 1SF 1FF 1FG IIIP - the Ind was more transfer friendly than the Independent Ireland
Mayo (5): 3FG 1FF 1SF - the third FG ended up as Aontu - better vote balancing would have kept it FG not least as the three FG kept ahead of the 2nd FF
Galway West (5): 2IND 1FF 1FG, 1SF
Galway East (4): 1FF 1FG 1IND 1IIP - the IIP never caught up SF so that seat went SF
Roscommon-Galway (3): 1IIP 1SF 1FF


Clare (4): 2FF 1FG 1SF
Kerry (5): 2IND 2FF, 1SF
Limerick West (3) 1FF 1FG 1IIP
Limerick City (4): 1FF 1FG 1SF, ILAB
Tipp North (3): 1LAB 1IND 1FF
Tipp South (3): 2IND 1FG
Waterford (4): 1SF 1FF 1FG 1IND - the Ind never caught up the second SF
Cork East (4): 1FF 1FG 1SF 1IND - SD outran the Ind to take the last seat
Cork NC (5): 1FF 1FG 1SF 1IIP 1LAB
Cork SC (5): 2FF 1FG 1SF 1SD
Cork SW (3): 1SD 1FF 1IIP
Cork NW (3): 2FF 1FG


Dublin Bay N (5): 1FF, 1FG, 1SF, 1SD, 1Ind
Dublin Bay S (4): 1FG, 1LAB, 1FF, 1SF - SD got great transfers to overtake SF at the end of the count
Dublin C (4): 1SF, 1FG, 1SD, 1LAB
Dublin Fingal E(3): 1FF, 1LAB, 1SF
Dublin Fingal W(3): 1SF, 1LAB, 1FF - FG took the last seat ahead of FF
Dublin Mid West (5): 2SF, 1FG, 1FF, 1SD - the former Green Ind took the last seat ahead of the SDs
Dublin NW (3): 1SF, 1SD, 1FF
Dublin Rathdown (4): 2FG, 1FF, 1SD
Dublin South Central (4): 1SF, 1FF, 1RTC, 1SD - there was a second seat for SF here as the RTC got knocked out somewhat earlier
Dublin SW(5): 1SF, 1FF, 1FG, 1LAB, 1PBP
Dublin W(5): 1FF, 1SF, 1FG, 1PBP, 1LAB - LAB never made up the gap to the Greens - they were left 300+ short when excluded
Dun Laoghaire(4): 2FG, 1FF, 1PBP

Carlow-Kilkenny(5): 2FF, 2FG, 1SF - great FF vote balancing bringing home 3 of 5 seats with only 35.9% of the first preferences leaving FG with just one
Kildare N(5): 2FF, 1FG, 1SF, 1SD
Kildare S(4): 1FF, 1FG, 1LAB, 1SF
Laois (3): 1FF, 1FG, 1IND
Longford-Westmeath(5): 2FG, 1FF, 1SF and 1IND
Louth(5): 2SF, 1 LAB, 1FF and 1FG
Meath E(4): 1FG, 1SF, 1FF, 1IND
Meath W(3): 1SF, 1AOT, 1FF
Offaly(3): 1FG, 1Ind 1FF
Wexford (4): 1IND, 1FF, 1LAB, 1SF
Wicklow-Wexford (3): 1FG, 1FF, 1SF
Wicklow (4): 2FG, 1SF, 1SD

Mistakes probably there & I will add up the totals now.

Mistakes should be ironed out & I get:

48FF
39FG
38SF
12Lab
10SD
5Independent Ireland
3PBP
1MICA (Donegal)
1RTC (Dublin South Central)
1AON
16Inds
Green 0

Probably if anything there is a slight Lab bias here.

So, ended up:

48FF
39SF
38FG
11Lab
11SD
4Independent Ireland
3PBP
1MICA
2AON
16 Inds
1 Green
0RTC

So my early Saturday afternoon projections on tallies/part tallies were pretty good (only max 1 out) and correct in the green cases with 12 out as explained above.