The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,000
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2024 10:05:22 GMT
Is this a mini-revival for Labour in Ireland? I remember them being part of a FG-led government with Dick Spring as their leader. You're probably remembering the 1992 to 1997 period when Irish Labour set a template the LibDems would follow in 2010. Labour had always been in coalition with FG and more than doubled their vote and seats. The result was FF 68 FG 45 Lab 33 PD 10 DL 4 GP 1 IND 5 FG+LAB+DL+GP got to exactly half the seats. FF+PD was 6 seats short. The indies were asking a lot and after independent Tony Gregory had squeezed what were seen as too many concessions for support the previous decade, no one wanted to go down that road. Spring was also demanding a rotating Taoiseach role which FG didn't want to give. So it was go into government with FF or force another election which they had fewer resources for. Labour's deal with FF proved very unpopular and halfway through, 3 by-election gains for the opposition made it possible to do FG+LAB+DL+GP after all, but that just made Labour look even more sneaky and the damage to the Labour brand was done and they've never recovered from it.They seemed to have recovered from it fairly well by the 2011 election, tbf. Labour had actually been leading in several polls during the previous parliament too. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 2, 2024 10:34:15 GMT
FG were very near a majority in 2011 and I remember there were some who thought they didn't really need a coalition. The junior partner in a coalition always ends up squishing their vote. It's an interesting 'what if' to ask what might have happened if Labour had deliberately sabotaged negotiations and forced an FG minority government.
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Post by johnloony on Dec 2, 2024 11:32:20 GMT
The last few leaders of Labour tried to keep their nationwide appeal and basically turned them into a collection of local machines. Ivana Bacik, if nothing else, has a clear profile that gives them a core vote of sorts that can be built on, mainly in Dublin (especially where the Social Democrats are weaker), but they’ve held up fine outside as well. What’s the difference between Labour and the SocDems? A bit like the difference between FF and FG |
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 2, 2024 11:36:00 GMT
You're probably remembering the 1992 to 1997 period when Irish Labour set a template the LibDems would follow in 2010. Labour had always been in coalition with FG and more than doubled their vote and seats. The result was FF 68 FG 45 Lab 33 PD 10 DL 4 GP 1 IND 5 FG+LAB+DL+GP got to exactly half the seats. FF+PD was 6 seats short. The indies were asking a lot and after independent Tony Gregory had squeezed what were seen as too many concessions for support the previous decade, no one wanted to go down that road. Spring was also demanding a rotating Taoiseach role which FG didn't want to give. So it was go into government with FF or force another election which they had fewer resources for. Labour's deal with FF proved very unpopular and halfway through, 3 by-election gains for the opposition made it possible to do FG+LAB+DL+GP after all, but that just made Labour look even more sneaky and the damage to the Labour brand was done and they've never recovered from it. IIRC the Greens were not part of all this at the time. They won one seat in 1989 then lost it but gained a different one in 1992. The focus was on FG-Lab-DL. I think it wasn't until 2007 that they openly discussed coalition partners when they went in with FF and the PDs. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 2, 2024 11:38:09 GMT
Interesting transfer data. Basically FF and FG voters are willing to switch between each other and if they stay in coalition for too many more terms one has to wonder if a merger will inevitably happen. Very few of their voters like the Greens. It seems to be the old adage that if you like what a coalition is doing you kiss the big party and if you don't you kick the little party in the nuts. And if you support the big parties but feel the little party has too much influence you try to reduce that. www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2024/1201/1484115-count-data-shows-fg-and-ff-voters-gave-greens-no-reward-for-govt/ |
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Post by uthacalthing on Dec 2, 2024 12:45:35 GMT
Dok, I find this very unconvincing, all this "teachers say", "experts say" . Not because I claim that teachers and experts dont say or because I disrespect teachers and experts but because it is as vague as fog. All you have put up is a claim that "some" "experts" "say", "something very vague", for which I could find a different cohort of experts who could write a very dull response that might say "I have not really come across that." Which would not exactly grab the Guardian editor's attention. This is a digression of course from Irish election results but why do Irish, or American or Preston folk vote how they vote? It is asserted that Andrew Tate is an "influencer". "Experts" allegedly say so. I am not seeing any evidence but I am seeing a deep seated longing among Guardian readers for it to be true so that they can be frightened of it. Maybe then you could go on to your doorstep at 6pm on a Thursday evening and boo Andrew Tate |
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Post by uthacalthing on Dec 2, 2024 12:49:25 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn5w50pw65yoNow here we have the heartwarming Irish story of how tattooed knucklehead and adjudicated rapist Conor McGregor has run out of road with his macho schtick which assuredly influenced far more people than anyone the Guardian writes Op-ed pieces about.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,195
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Post by r34t on Dec 2, 2024 12:54:36 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn5w50pw65yoNow here we have the heartwarming Irish story of how tattooed knucklehead and adjudicated rapist Conor McGregor has run out of road with his macho schtick which assuredly influenced far more people than anyone the Guardian writes Op-ed pieces about. But apart from that, you're a fan ?  |
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Post by uthacalthing on Dec 2, 2024 13:14:36 GMT
He is trash
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Dec 2, 2024 14:03:07 GMT
So far, 97 seats have been filled. By the way, how did sitting TD (ex-SF, now Independent) Violet-Anne Wynne achieve such an appallingly low first preference vote in Clare (310!)? Got elected purely due to the party label but immediately turned out to be a car-crash (unpaid rent to a housing association, chaotic personal circumstances, unwise Facebook posts). Jumped from SF before she was pushed claiming harassment. Largely absent from the constituency. SF regained the seat with a much more conventional candidate based in Shannon town. Patricia Ryan in Kildare South was a much less extreme version of someone who was not ready for political prime-time and again polled poorly while the party regained the seat with a more presentable candidate. |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 866
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Post by obsie on Dec 2, 2024 14:15:24 GMT
Is this a mini-revival for Labour in Ireland? I remember them being part of a FG-led government with Dick Spring as their leader. You're probably remembering the 1992 to 1997 period when Irish Labour set a template the LibDems would follow in 2010. Labour had always been in coalition with FG and more than doubled their vote and seats. The result was FF 68 FG 45 Lab 33 PD 10 DL 4 GP 1 IND 5 FG+LAB+DL+GP got to exactly half the seats. FF+PD was 6 seats short. The indies were asking a lot and after independent Tony Gregory had squeezed what were seen as too many concessions for support the previous decade, no one wanted to go down that road. Spring was also demanding a rotating Taoiseach role which FG didn't want to give. So it was go into government with FF or force another election which they had fewer resources for. Labour's deal with FF proved very unpopular and halfway through, 3 by-election gains for the opposition made it possible to do FG+LAB+DL+GP after all, but that just made Labour look even more sneaky and the damage to the Labour brand was done and they've never recovered from it. FG were also acting as if they'd won the election despite a sharp drop in both their vote share and seat count, insisting on excluding DL and having the PDs in government which would have shifted the coalition ideologically to the right while leaving Labour's left flank exposed. (The insistence on excluding DL and including the PDs was dropped in 1994 by a somewhat chastened Bruton when the numbers now worked). FF weren't offering a rotating Taoiseach but were perfectly willing to ideologically shift to the left to accommodate Labour. As someone has pointed out, Labour simply returned in terms of popular support to the status quo ante in terms of votes and seats after the 1997 election rather than cratering as they have done since 2016 (2024 is still their second-lowest ever share of support in a national election.) The one big plus for them this time is that all their newly-elected TDs bar Wall in Kildare weren't around - at least not at national level - for the 2011-16 government.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Dec 2, 2024 14:37:37 GMT
Is this a mini-revival for Labour in Ireland? I remember them being part of a FG-led government with Dick Spring as their leader. If you view Lab/SDs/Greens together as a bourgeois/"progressive" centre-left bloc whose voters may shift from one component of the bloc to another, then it has gone from 14.4% to 12.5% and from 24 to 23 seats in an expanded Dáil. (You could potentially add Heneghan, Gogarty, and possibly Connolly to that bloc - although Connolly's politics are much further left.) The further left has gone from 8 (the Trot fronts plus Collins, Pringle, and Connolly) to 4 (the Trots and Connolly). Labour would have made four straight gains from the Greens - Dublin SW, Dublin Central, Fingal W, and Limerick City - along with Bacik herself in Dublin Bay South, a gain from a FG-adjacent independent in Kildare South, and holding seats notionally lost due to unfavourable boundary changes in Fingal E and Cork. |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Dec 2, 2024 14:53:50 GMT
Middle-class hand-wringers who want to vote for a "nice" party but never want to have any responsibility for getting hands dirty by actually governing and choosing. Classic Lib Dem voters  |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 866
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Post by obsie on Dec 2, 2024 14:56:16 GMT
Social democrats seem like a fairly standard centre left party without the baggage of Sein Fein. Filling a gap in the market. Irish Labour - don't really have much in the way of ideology. "Progressive" in the sense that say Kamala Harris is. Politically correct whilst not being particularly left wing. And therefore, within the Irish electoral system, very transfer friendly - they get enough first preferences to survive the initial counts and then accumulate. Assuming the recount confirms the Cork result they get 11 seats - a pretty reasonable return. From the initial remarks the Social Democrats seem interested in taking the third party slot in the coalition, painfully surrendered by the Greens. Labour seems keen to dodge what has typically been a near fatal consequence at the following election for junior parties in government. Should the Social Democrats choose the coalition path there are likely to be plenty of their voters looking for homes then. Labour have lost a lot of their transfer toxicity since 2020, probably helped by the fact that the old faces are largely gone. I'm not particularly convinced that this is much more than voters shifting around within a bloc and if they decide to sign on to replace the Greens as Irritating Urban Middle-Class Fingerwagging Component of the government as Bacik seems eager to do then they'll be back to Square Minus One soon enough. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Dec 2, 2024 15:55:42 GMT
Still counting
Cavan-Monaghan: Count 12
1 seat of 5 filled
2 Sinn Féin, 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 Aontù left in the race
Louth: Count 19
2 seats of 5 filled
1 Lab, 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 Fine Gael
Tipperary North: Count 9
1 seat of 3 filled
1 Labour, 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 Fine Gael, 1 Ind left
Cork North-Central: all seats filled. Recount underway
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Post by greenhert on Dec 2, 2024 16:53:23 GMT
The recount in Cork North-Central aside, Cavan-Monaghan is now the only Dail constituency still to finish counting. The final projection is that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will combined have 86 seats, just 2 short of an overall majority. Which Independents would align with them? One of the Independents who took up a Minister of State position in a previous Fine Gael-led government, Kevin "Boxer" Moran, has just returned to the Dail (he lost his seat in 2020).
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Dec 2, 2024 17:11:40 GMT
Still counting Cavan-Monaghan: Count 12 1 seat of 5 filled 2 Sinn Féin, 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 Aontù left in the race Louth: Count 19 2 seats of 5 filled 1 Lab, 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 Fine Gael Tipperary North: Count 9 1 seat of 3 filled 1 Labour, 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 Fine Gael, 1 Ind left Cork North-Central: all seats filled. Recount underway Louth Paula Butterly of Fine Gael, Erin McGreehan of Fianna Fáil and Ger Nash of Labour elected Tipperary North Labour's Alan Kelly and Fianna Fáil's Ryan O'Meara elected Situation in Cavan-Monaghan is SF 10,981 FF 10,313 FF 10,062 AON 8,490 SF 8,220 They are now redistributing the 7,868 preferences of the third Sinners. So it is going to be 2 FF and SF |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Dec 2, 2024 17:41:12 GMT
Mick Barry withdrew the full recount request in Cork North Central.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 2, 2024 18:39:52 GMT
And therefore, within the Irish electoral system, very transfer friendly - they get enough first preferences to survive the initial counts and then accumulate. Assuming the recount confirms the Cork result they get 11 seats - a pretty reasonable return. From the initial remarks the Social Democrats seem interested in taking the third party slot in the coalition, painfully surrendered by the Greens. Labour seems keen to dodge what has typically been a near fatal consequence at the following election for junior parties in government. Should the Social Democrats choose the coalition path there are likely to be plenty of their voters looking for homes then. Labour have lost a lot of their transfer toxicity since 2020, probably helped by the fact that the old faces are largely gone. I'm not particularly convinced that this is much more than voters shifting around within a bloc and if they decide to sign on to replace the Greens as Irritating Urban Middle-Class Fingerwagging Component of the government as Bacik seems eager to do then they'll be back to Square Minus One soon enough. Given their past it would be too funny, if the Soc.Dem.s joined FFG and Labour remained in fierce opPosition... |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Dec 2, 2024 18:42:02 GMT
Final results looks like:
FF:48
FG:38 = 86
SF:39
LAB:11
SD:11
PBP:3
GN:1
AON:2
IND/OTH:21 = 88
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