Irish elections

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Labour likely to end up with 10 seats (an 11th is possible in Cork North Central), so it's more than they've had since 2016 but still not a proper revival. An increase in national vote share from 4.4% to 4.8% isn't much to write home about.

[greenhert]

Current totals with 128/174 seats filled:

FF 32
SF 30
FG 29
Independents 11
Social Democrats 9
Labour 8
PBP-Solidarity 3
Independent Ireland 3
Aontu 2
Green 1

As it stands, it is likely Aontu will gain a 3rd seat by gaining the last seat in Cavan-Monaghan, that 100% Redress will win the last seat in Donegal at the expense of Thomas Pringle, and Independent Ireland will likely win a 4th seat via Cork North-Central (the final seat will be close between Labour's Eoghan Kenny and sitting PBP-Solidarity TD Mick Barry, the only PBP-Solidarity TD representing a constituency outside Greater Dublin).

[Foggy]

Labour put up fewer candidates this time than in 2020, but there are more constituencies overall, so their increase where they actually stood is a tad more impressive than a mere 0.4% nationally sounds.

[WJ]

Dec 1, 2024 19:59:49 GMT uthacalthing said:

Dec 1, 2024 19:48:28 GMT cathyc said:

Real.

Who does he "influence"? In what way is this "influence" manifested? Quantative and Qualitative analysis. 

Am I influenced by you because I read you? Are you influenced by me? 

When the BBC talks about "far right influencers like Andrew Tate and Jordan Peterson" are they wilfully lying or are they simply as stupid as mud . Do you enjoy citric desserts like Lemon Cheesecake and battery acid asbestos flakes? 

Do you regard Trump as Far Right? 

Teenage boys and other men who struggle to get laid are supposedly his biggest share of viewers.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Couldn't be closer in the battle for the final seat in Cork North-Central - Mick Barry (PBP-Sollidarity) is one vote ahead of Eoghan Kenny (Labour). The 185 vote surplus of Ken O'Flynn (Independent Ireland) will now have to be distributed to decide who takes it

Correction: It's the surplus of Pádraig O'Sullivan (FF), elected at Count 12, which is the larger unredistributed surplus.

[jamie]

The last few leaders of Labour tried to keep their nationwide appeal and basically turned them into a collection of local machines. Ivana Bacik, if nothing else, has a clear profile that gives them a core vote of sorts that can be built on, mainly in Dublin (especially where the Social Democrats are weaker), but they’ve held up fine outside as well.

[kvasir]

Dec 1, 2024 21:58:43 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Labour likely to end up with 10 seats (an 11th is possible in Cork North Central), so it's more than they've had since 2016 but still not a proper revival. An increase in national vote share from 4.4% to 4.8% isn't much to write home about.

At the very least they have not continued to fall into complete irrelevance compared with some Labour parties, but I distinctly recall 2011 when Labour won 37 seats which was not that long ago but feels like a political lifetime ago.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

In Cork North Central, Pádraig O'Sullivan's transfers put Eoghan Kenny in the lead by 84 votes, but as Ken O'Flynn's surplus is larger, it now needs to be distributed before the winner is known.

[irish observer]

Dec 1, 2024 23:31:38 GMT jamie said:

The last few leaders of Labour tried to keep their nationwide appeal and basically turned them into a collection of local machines. Ivana Bacik, if nothing else, has a clear profile that gives them a core vote of sorts that can be built on, mainly in Dublin (especially where the Social Democrats are weaker), but they’ve held up fine outside as well.

Remember Soc Dems are second-largest party on Dublin CC since June.

[eastmidlandsright]

Excellent news from Donegal. The awful Thomas Pringle is going to lose his seat.

[jamie]

Dec 2, 2024 0:16:01 GMT irish observer said:

Dec 1, 2024 23:31:38 GMT jamie said:

The last few leaders of Labour tried to keep their nationwide appeal and basically turned them into a collection of local machines. Ivana Bacik, if nothing else, has a clear profile that gives them a core vote of sorts that can be built on, mainly in Dublin (especially where the Social Democrats are weaker), but they’ve held up fine outside as well.

Remember Soc Dems are second-largest party on Dublin CC since June.

True, but there’s still quite a few constituencies where one is much weaker than the other and the targeting (especially on Labour's side) reflects this. The only real exception iirc is Dublin Bay South, which if anything was a surprise Social Democrats gain given Bacik would have been expected to hog the progressive vote. 

[andrea]

Dec 2, 2024 0:04:37 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

In Cork North Central, Pádraig O'Sullivan's transfers put Eoghan Kenny in the lead by 84 votes, but as Ken O'Flynn's surplus is larger, it now needs to be distributed before the winner is known.

Kenny leads by 35 votes at the end of the night. Barry has requested a recount.
They will come back this morning to decide for a partial or full recount.

[rcronald]

Dec 1, 2024 23:31:38 GMT jamie said:

The last few leaders of Labour tried to keep their nationwide appeal and basically turned them into a collection of local machines. Ivana Bacik, if nothing else, has a clear profile that gives them a core vote of sorts that can be built on, mainly in Dublin (especially where the Social Democrats are weaker), but they’ve held up fine outside as well.

What’s the difference between Labour and the SocDems?

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Teachers say boys are often sucked into his “glamorous” ultra-macho world by more benign content on fast cars or fitness. But in his videos he also says women are a man’s property, cannot do jobs as well as men, and belong at home. He thinks rape victims should “bear responsibility” for their attacks and boasts about seeking out 18-year-old girls because they are “fresh”.insert quote here

www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/07/andrew-tate-misogyny-schools-vulnerable-boys

Experts say preteen boys are particularly susceptible to Tate’s brand of toxic masculinity. Teachers across the world, including in the United States, have shared on social media that they’ve seen an uptick in male students repeating sexist vitriol in class to get a rise from their classmates and teachers.

www.edweek.org/leadership/misogynist-influencer-andrew-tate-has-captured-boys-attention-what-teachers-need-to-know/2023/02

One school resorted to setting up a staff committee after noticing that pupils as young as 11 and 13 were using sexist language used by online influencers such as Andrew Tate.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c625yleq8w7o

[aargauer]

Dec 2, 2024 6:53:46 GMT rcronald said:

Dec 1, 2024 23:31:38 GMT jamie said:

The last few leaders of Labour tried to keep their nationwide appeal and basically turned them into a collection of local machines. Ivana Bacik, if nothing else, has a clear profile that gives them a core vote of sorts that can be built on, mainly in Dublin (especially where the Social Democrats are weaker), but they’ve held up fine outside as well.

What’s the difference between Labour and the SocDems?

Social democrats seem like a fairly standard centre left party without the baggage of Sein Fein. Filling a gap in the market.

Irish Labour - don't really have much in the way of ideology. "Progressive" in the sense that say Kamala Harris is. Politically correct whilst not being particularly left wing.

[J.G.Harston]

Dec 2, 2024 7:51:33 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Teachers say boys are often sucked into his “glamorous” ultra-macho world by more benign content on fast cars or fitness. But in his videos he also says women are a man’s property, cannot do jobs as well as men, and belong at home. He thinks rape victims should “bear responsibility” for their attacks and boasts about seeking out 18-year-old girls because they are “fresh”.insert quote here

www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/07/andrew-tate-misogyny-schools-vulnerable-boys

Experts say preteen boys are particularly susceptible to Tate’s brand of toxic masculinity. Teachers across the world, including in the United States, have shared on social media that they’ve seen an uptick in male students repeating sexist vitriol in class to get a rise from their classmates and teachers.

www.edweek.org/leadership/misogynist-influencer-andrew-tate-has-captured-boys-attention-what-teachers-need-to-know/2023/02

One school resorted to setting up a staff committee after noticing that pupils as young as 11 and 13 were using sexist language used by online influencers such as Andrew Tate.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c625yleq8w7o

At one time teachers were man enough to give such tunts a clip around the ear to bash the rough corners off them in the process of trying to convert the little animals into people fit to be let loose in society.

[matureleft]

Dec 2, 2024 7:59:01 GMT aargauer said:

Dec 2, 2024 6:53:46 GMT rcronald said:

What’s the difference between Labour and the SocDems?

Social democrats seem like a fairly standard centre left party without the baggage of Sein Fein. Filling a gap in the market.

Irish Labour - don't really have much in the way of ideology. "Progressive" in the sense that say Kamala Harris is. Politically correct whilst not being particularly left wing.

And therefore, within the Irish electoral system, very transfer friendly - they get enough first preferences to survive the initial counts and then accumulate. Assuming the recount confirms the Cork result they get 11 seats - a pretty reasonable return. 

From the initial remarks the Social Democrats seem interested in taking the third party slot in the coalition, painfully surrendered by the Greens. Labour seems keen to dodge what has typically been a near fatal consequence at the following election for junior parties in government. Should the Social Democrats choose the coalition path there are likely to be plenty of their voters looking for homes then. 

[r34t]

Dec 2, 2024 8:17:45 GMT matureleft said:

Dec 2, 2024 7:59:01 GMT aargauer said:

From the initial remarks the Social Democrats seem interested in taking the third party slot in the coalition, painfully surrendered by the Greens.  

Has anyone shared Einstein's definition of stupidity with them ......

[therealriga]

Dec 1, 2024 21:09:53 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Is this a mini-revival for Labour in Ireland? I remember them being part of a FG-led government with Dick Spring as their leader.

You're probably remembering the 1992 to 1997 period when Irish Labour set a template the LibDems would follow in 2010. Labour had always been in coalition with FG and more than doubled their vote and seats. The result was

FF 68
FG 45
Lab 33
PD 10
DL 4
GP 1
IND 5

FG+LAB+DL+GP got to exactly half the seats.
FF+PD was 6 seats short.

The indies were asking a lot and after independent Tony Gregory had squeezed what were seen as too many concessions for support the previous decade, no one wanted to go down that road. Spring was also demanding a rotating Taoiseach role which FG didn't want to give. So it was go into government with FF or force another election which they had fewer resources for. Labour's deal with FF proved very unpopular and halfway through, 3 by-election gains for the opposition made it possible to do FG+LAB+DL+GP after all, but that just made Labour look even more sneaky and the damage to the Labour brand was done and they've never recovered from it.

[matureleft]

Dec 2, 2024 8:20:09 GMT r34t said:

Dec 2, 2024 8:17:45 GMT matureleft said:

From the initial remarks the Social Democrats seem interested in taking the third party slot in the coalition, painfully surrendered by the Greens.  

Has anyone shared Einstein's definition of stupidity with them ......

The alternatives (if Bacik means what she says) appear twofold. 

1. A messy and transactional deal with some independents, but it looks as if they need a reasonable number of them.
2. Forming a minority two-party government. To me that doesn’t seem crazy. The opposing forces are diverse (although mostly vaguely to the left of FF and FG) and with some hard fault lines.