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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 13, 2020 22:11:34 GMT
Verona Murphy (former FG by-election candidate), set to announce tomorrow morning whether she'll run as a nindependent, in Wexford. SF will be running two candidates in Dublin Mid-West.. despite their recent by-election win in the constituency (on horrific turnout), clearly a risky strategy in a 4 seater.. Isn't Verona Murphy (what an odd name) the candidate that Varadkar apologised for? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,716
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 13, 2020 22:15:04 GMT
Verona Murphy (former FG by-election candidate), set to announce tomorrow morning whether she'll run as a nindependent, in Wexford. SF will be running two candidates in Dublin Mid-West.. despite their recent by-election win in the constituency (on horrific turnout), clearly a risky strategy in a 4 seater.. Ironically the only good result for SF in the recent byelections has ended up a nightmare for them. There is no way Eoin Ó Broin will let Mark Ward overshadow him and I can see shenanigans over posters for who to vote 1 and 2 in the 'wrong' areas. Thwy could end up with no TD elected if they aren't careful. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 13, 2020 22:22:19 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Jan 13, 2020 22:23:47 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,716
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 13, 2020 22:24:55 GMT
I am looking forward to this election: Sinn Fein are facing an awful election after the locals, Fine Gael look to be under pressure in the Rural constituencies due to Health Service scandals/waiting lists, appalling transport, beef farmers being priced out, etc. Fianna Fail will be under pressure due to shoring up the FG government for so long, the interest over the Green surge, the continuing fissiparous nature of the far-left and the many Independent choices. Also, Aontu might do some damege here and there.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 13, 2020 23:00:16 GMT
A musical interlude.
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 13, 2020 23:02:44 GMT
This just makes me relieved we don't have STV! It doesn't sound as if anyone is likely to gain very much, does it?
While some independents are welcome it also increases the amount of pork in the process, if that is hard to imagine!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2020 23:27:11 GMT
I am looking forward to this election: Sinn Fein are facing an awful election after the locals, Fine Gael look to be under pressure in the Rural constituencies due to Health Service scandals/waiting lists, appalling transport, beef farmers being priced out, etc. Fianna Fail will be under pressure due to shoring up the FG government for so long, the interest over the Green surge, the continuing fissiparous nature of the far-left and the many Independent choices. Also, Aontu might do some damege here and there. Irish elections just depress me. Glad i dont live there no one to vote for |
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Post by irish observer on Jan 13, 2020 23:35:14 GMT
To note that there was a boundary review in 2017. The Dail will increase by 2 members but there will be a reduction in the number of constituencies by one; Laois and Offaly which had been two separate 3-member constituencies will be combined into a 5 member. Full details available from the Constituency Commission. I posted this back in 2017 on the new boundaries. "On the new boundaries thus far some quick guesstimates: Laois-Offaly (5): With the traditional 5 seater constituency re-united FF would fancy targetting 3 seats but this will be difficult given how Fleming ran on his own last time in Laois (though was comfortably re-elected) and Cowen's vote-hogging in Offaly. The choice of the third candidate would be crucial. Corcoran-Kennedy is now a dimished presence in the constituency but Nolan is the one most hurt by the reduction to 5 seats. Prediction: 2FF, 2FG, 1SF. Kildare South (4): Gains a seat but an effective 3 seater as Sean O'Fearghail comes back as Ceann Comhairle. Obviously Fiona O'Loughlin and Martin Heydon are safe for FF and FG. I would give the last seat to Labour's Mark Wall at the moment. Prediction: 2FF (includes CC) 1FG, 1LAB. Kildare North (4): Loses some rural territory in the west to Kildare South. This likely affects FF and FG the most and makes FF's second seat slightly more vulnerable. Hard to see a strong Labour comeback at the moment though and SF have no real base here. Prediction: 2FF, 1FG, 1SD. Cavan/Monaghan (5): Regains its status as a 5 seater as the Cavan territory that had been hived off into Sligo-Leitrim returns. Also gains a small area of North Meath from the Meath East constituency. FF must run a stronger Monaghan candidate but should be safe for 2. SF may now regret shafting former Senator Katryn Reilly. I would favour FG for the additional seat. Prediction: 2FF, 2FG, 1SF. Sligo-Leitrim (4): Just as all the Cavan area is moved out of this constituency and you think that the Boundary Commission are getting sensible they then proceed to add in part of Roscommon north of and including Boyle. Parts of 4 counties are now in this constituency, the other being part of south Donegal. WTF? Given the nature of geography I would need to see the full slate to make a reasoned guess but I'll go for a lazy hold at the moment. Prediction: 2FF, 1FG, 1SF. Tipperary (5): Tipperary is now re-united bar a small portion basically Newport and Birdhill which has joined the Limerick City constituency. The transfer of the Tipp areas which had been with Offaly ensure that there will be an FG seat here. The removal of Newport most disadvantages Kelly. FF and FG and Lowry are safe for 1 each. If Healy runs he should win if not rumour is SF will take the seat. However their general election candidate (Seamus Morris) was recently kicked out of the party so there is some internal strife going on. Kelly's vote is entirely localised and personal and I would see him as vulnerable. I am not sure how safe McGrath is to a strong FF push for a second seat. Prediction: 2IND, 2FF, 1FG. Dublin Central (4): Gains a seat as the old Drumcondra territory and Gleasnevin comes back in. This area is more middle class, it was Ahern's stomping ground. It is unclear whether either O'Sullivan or Christy Burke will run again. However Donohoe and McDonald are safe. Gary Gannon of the SD could benefit as well as a credible FF candidate. Prediction: 1SF, 1FG, 1SD, 1FF. Dublin North West (3): Remains at 3 though loses Drumcondra. This was Noel Rock's base and he is really disadvantaged as a result. Given the close gap between him and Paul McAuliffe I think this could tip the balance to McAuliffe. Prediction: 1SD, 1SF, 1FF." Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/user/52/recent#ixzz6Ax5ENF6p
AmendmentsLaois-Offaly (5) : Due to RIC/Tan Controversy of his instigation Flanagan deserves to lose his seat and I think he will. Prediction: 3FF 1FG 1SF Kildare South (4): No change. Prediction: 2FF (Includes CC) 1FG 1LAB. Kildare North (4): FF's second seat is slightly more vulnerable and I think the Greens could benefit here. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SD 1GRN Cavan-Monaghan (5): Senator Joe O'Reilly was recently pensioned off the FG ticket. Given the poor performance of SF in Cavan in 2019 I feel FG are more likely to take 2 seats than SF. Prediction: 2FF 2FG 1SF Sligo-Leitrim (4): With Harkin's candidacy I give her a seat especially with FG debacle. Only selection of Quinn Exec, McCartin, may prevent a seat loss. Prediction: 2FF 1SF 1IND. Tipperary (5): Amended Prediction - 2 Indo 1FF 1FG 1Lab. I am not predicted which Indo will lose at moment, however, of McGrath or Healy. Kelly is stronger now than in 2017 despite loss of the Newport areas. Dublin Central (4): Amended Prediction - 1FG 1SF safe. Give last 2 seats to FF and GRN. Mary Fitzpatrick is a Cllr in this area now again and a credible candidate and the Greens have a base since 2019 in both LEAs. I favour both of them over Gannon of SD. 1FG 1SF 1GRN 1FF. Dublin North-West (3): The Drumcondra boundary addition plus the local elections and his current Mayoralty greatly assist McAuliffe. Shortall is safe. Rock is high-profile however despite boundary issues. Up until last week SF could have been as vulnerable. Still favour 1SD 1FF 1SF. |
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Post by irish observer on Jan 13, 2020 23:42:41 GMT
I am looking forward to this election: Sinn Fein are facing an awful election after the locals, Fine Gael look to be under pressure in the Rural constituencies due to Health Service scandals/waiting lists, appalling transport, beef farmers being priced out, etc. Fianna Fail will be under pressure due to shoring up the FG government for so long, the interest over the Green surge, the continuing fissiparous nature of the far-left and the many Independent choices. Also, Aontu might do some damege here and there. I am genuinely perplexed why you think Aountú will amount to anything. Recent elections north and south have shown this. This is a sophisticated electorate voting for 1 of 2 choices of a lead Government. That option is an utter irrelevancy. I am also more confident that FF will emerge with more seats than FG in spite of FG's message of positive economic management. The key debate may well be one over the economy if held between Michael McGrath and Paschal Donohoe. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jan 13, 2020 23:45:31 GMT
I am looking forward to this election: Sinn Fein are facing an awful election after the locals, Fine Gael look to be under pressure in the Rural constituencies due to Health Service scandals/waiting lists, appalling transport, beef farmers being priced out, etc. Fianna Fail will be under pressure due to shoring up the FG government for so long, the interest over the Green surge, the continuing fissiparous nature of the far-left and the many Independent choices. Also, Aontu might do some damege here and there. Irish elections just depress me. Glad i dont live there no one to vote for Funnily enough, I would have said exactly the same about the British edition last month. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 13, 2020 23:49:09 GMT
Kildare South (4): Gains a seat but an effective 3 seater as Sean O'Fearghail comes back as Ceann Comhairle. Does anyone ever get worked up about this automatic return? I can just imagine the outrage here if the Speaker couldn't be challenged in their own constituency and IIRC Ceann Comhairles(sp?) sometimes step down straight after an election and become party TDs once more rather than retiring either to dignified independence or to become a trained monkey shouting "Order!" on request. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jan 13, 2020 23:49:20 GMT
To note that there was a boundary review in 2017. The Dail will increase by 2 members but there will be a reduction in the number of constituencies by one; Laois and Offaly which had been two separate 3-member constituencies will be combined into a 5 member. Full details available from the Constituency Commission. I posted this back in 2017 on the new boundaries. "On the new boundaries thus far some quick guesstimates: Laois-Offaly (5): With the traditional 5 seater constituency re-united FF would fancy targetting 3 seats but this will be difficult given how Fleming ran on his own last time in Laois (though was comfortably re-elected) and Cowen's vote-hogging in Offaly. The choice of the third candidate would be crucial. Corcoran-Kennedy is now a dimished presence in the constituency but Nolan is the one most hurt by the reduction to 5 seats. Prediction: 2FF, 2FG, 1SF. Kildare South (4): Gains a seat but an effective 3 seater as Sean O'Fearghail comes back as Ceann Comhairle. Obviously Fiona O'Loughlin and Martin Heydon are safe for FF and FG. I would give the last seat to Labour's Mark Wall at the moment. Prediction: 2FF (includes CC) 1FG, 1LAB. Kildare North (4): Loses some rural territory in the west to Kildare South. This likely affects FF and FG the most and makes FF's second seat slightly more vulnerable. Hard to see a strong Labour comeback at the moment though and SF have no real base here. Prediction: 2FF, 1FG, 1SD. Cavan/Monaghan (5): Regains its status as a 5 seater as the Cavan territory that had been hived off into Sligo-Leitrim returns. Also gains a small area of North Meath from the Meath East constituency. FF must run a stronger Monaghan candidate but should be safe for 2. SF may now regret shafting former Senator Katryn Reilly. I would favour FG for the additional seat. Prediction: 2FF, 2FG, 1SF. Sligo-Leitrim (4): Just as all the Cavan area is moved out of this constituency and you think that the Boundary Commission are getting sensible they then proceed to add in part of Roscommon north of and including Boyle. Parts of 4 counties are now in this constituency, the other being part of south Donegal. WTF? Given the nature of geography I would need to see the full slate to make a reasoned guess but I'll go for a lazy hold at the moment. Prediction: 2FF, 1FG, 1SF. Tipperary (5): Tipperary is now re-united bar a small portion basically Newport and Birdhill which has joined the Limerick City constituency. The transfer of the Tipp areas which had been with Offaly ensure that there will be an FG seat here. The removal of Newport most disadvantages Kelly. FF and FG and Lowry are safe for 1 each. If Healy runs he should win if not rumour is SF will take the seat. However their general election candidate (Seamus Morris) was recently kicked out of the party so there is some internal strife going on. Kelly's vote is entirely localised and personal and I would see him as vulnerable. I am not sure how safe McGrath is to a strong FF push for a second seat. Prediction: 2IND, 2FF, 1FG. Dublin Central (4): Gains a seat as the old Drumcondra territory and Gleasnevin comes back in. This area is more middle class, it was Ahern's stomping ground. It is unclear whether either O'Sullivan or Christy Burke will run again. However Donohoe and McDonald are safe. Gary Gannon of the SD could benefit as well as a credible FF candidate. Prediction: 1SF, 1FG, 1SD, 1FF. Dublin North West (3): Remains at 3 though loses Drumcondra. This was Noel Rock's base and he is really disadvantaged as a result. Given the close gap between him and Paul McAuliffe I think this could tip the balance to McAuliffe. Prediction: 1SD, 1SF, 1FF." Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/user/52/recent#ixzz6Ax5ENF6p
AmendmentsLaois-Offaly (5) : Due to RIC/Tan Controversy of his instigation Flanagan deserves to lose his seat and I think he will. Prediction: 3FF 1FG 1SF Kildare South (4): No change. Prediction: 2FF (Includes CC) 1FG 1LAB. Kildare North (4): FF's second seat is slightly more vulnerable and I think the Greens could benefit here. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SD 1GRN Cavan-Monaghan (5): Senator Joe O'Reilly was recently pensioned off the FG ticket. Given the poor performance of SF in Cavan in 2019 I feel FG are more likely to take 2 seats than FG. Prediction: 2FF 2FG 1SF Sligo-Leitrim (4): With Harkin's candidacy I give her a seat especially with FG debacle. Only selection of Quinn Exec, Gilmartin, may prevent a seat loss. Prediction: 2FF 1SF 1IND. Tipperary (5): Amended Prediction - 2 Indo 1FF 1FG 1Lab. I am not predicted which Indo will lose at moment, however, of McGrath or Healy. Kelly is stronger now than in 2017 despite loss of the Newport areas. Dublin Central (4): Amended Prediction - 1FG 1SF safe. Give last 2 seats to FF and GRN. Mary Fitzpatrick is a Cllr in this area now again and a credible candidate and the Greens have a base since 2019 in both LEAs. I favour both of them over Gannon of SD. 1FG 1SF 1GRN 1FF. Dublin North-West (3): The Drumcondra boundary addition plus the local elections and his current Mayoralty greatly assist McAuliffe. Shortall is safe. Rock is high-profile however despite boundary issues. Up until last week SF could have been as vulnerable. Still favour 1SD 1FF 1SF. I think you mean John McCartin. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jan 13, 2020 23:54:27 GMT
Kildare South (4): Gains a seat but an effective 3 seater as Sean O'Fearghail comes back as Ceann Comhairle. Does anyone ever get worked up about this automatic return? I can just imagine the outrage here if the Speaker couldn't be challenged in their own constituency and IIRC Ceann Comhairles(sp?) sometimes step down straight after an election and become party TDs once more rather than retiring either to dignified independence or to become a trained monkey shouting "Order!" on request. Not in my recollection. |
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Post by irish observer on Jan 13, 2020 23:54:28 GMT
Thank you I will amend.
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jan 13, 2020 23:59:39 GMT
Verona Murphy (former FG by-election candidate), set to announce tomorrow morning whether she'll run as a nindependent, in Wexford. SF will be running two candidates in Dublin Mid-West.. despite their recent by-election win in the constituency (on horrific turnout), clearly a risky strategy in a 4 seater.. Isn't Verona Murphy (what an odd name) the candidate that Varadkar apologised for? She was chair of the Irish Road Haulage Association and had featured a lot on Brexit coverage before she was headhunted by FG as a star candidate for the by-election in Wexford caused by Mick Wallace's elevation to the European Parliament (both she and Wallace are based in the same area of rural south Wexford) only to turn into an embarrassment for them on the campaign trail (it's not that FG at local level mightn't be quite happy to subtly dogwhistle about immigration but Verona didn't do subtle). |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,716
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 14, 2020 0:00:22 GMT
Actually, on Aontu, I will go further. I think their best chance of a win is in Cavan-Monaghan after the remarkable result in the locals by Sarah O'Reilly in Bailieborough–Cootehill and the strong performance in Ballyjamesduff, we will see her take a seat for Aontu.
Peadar Tóibín has a more difficult job in 3-seat Meath West, but Aontu polled well here in the locals (with his sister, Emer, elected in Navan) and he has a strong chance. SF had a terrible local election in Meath, falling from 8 to 3 seats and their vote almost halving. Meath East could see Aontu polling well at the GE too.
In other constituencies, they could damage Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail. Limerick City will be interesting with Aontu's Dail candidate, local headteacher Michael Ryan, just missing out on election at the local elections in May and SF's Maurice Quinlivan will be very worried after his party lost 4 of their 6 seats and their vote more than halved across the council and collapsing in the City itself.
In Mayo, Aontu has a very likeable local candidate in footballer and teacher, Paul Lawless, who has made a big impression with his taking buses of locals to Belfast for cataract operations they can't get locally. He didn't do too badly in the Claremorris LEA, and Aunto also stood in Swinford, and polled well there too; they hurt both SF and FF. He could be a strong candidate.
During the Wexford byelection, the media ignored Aontu's Jim Codd, even though he was elected in May, which was bizarre. Nevertheless, he polled over 5% and, with no press pushing him out in a byelection spotlight, he will be worth watching. He campaigns very much from the left.
In Leo Varadker's Constituency of Dublin West, Edward MacManus is likely to be the Aontu candidate; a local pharmacist, he just failed to be elected in Castleknock and seemed to have most damaged Sinn Fein. In the same constituency, former Green Party Dail candidate, Simead Moore, polled well in Mulhuddart for Aontu. They aren't going to win a seat, but they will go for the Taoiseach.
In Louth, SF could lose a seat to FF after a dismal set of local elections, Labour also polled well in a former strong area for them.
I will reflect more in the next days.
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jan 14, 2020 0:04:51 GMT
SF will be running two candidates in Dublin Mid-West.. despite their recent by-election win in the constituency (on horrific turnout), clearly a risky strategy in a 4 seater.. If any party manages disciplined transfers any more in the South it's SF, and Kenny of the SWP is widely viewed as a dead man walking, but it will still be difficult to win two seats. Gogarty (a complete gom) will probably take the fourth seat based on the by-election vote. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2020 0:06:38 GMT
Irish elections just depress me. Glad i dont live there no one to vote for Funnily enough, I would have said exactly the same about the British edition last month. tbf i couldn't vote. Council buggered up our vote |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jan 14, 2020 0:10:12 GMT
Actually, on Aontu, I will go further. I think their best chance of a win is in Cavan-Monaghan after the remarkable result in the locals by Sarah O'Reilly in Bailieborough–Cootehill and the strong oerformance in Ballyjamesduf, we will see her take a seat for Aontu. Peadar Tóibín has a more difficult job in 3-seat Meath West, but Aontu polled well here in the locals (with his sister, Emer, elected in Navan) and he has a strong chance. SF had a terrible local election in Meath, falling from 8 to 3 seats and their vote almost halving. Meath East could see Aontu polling well at the GE too. In other constituencies, they could damage Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail. Limerick City will be interesting with Aontu's Dail candidate, local headteacher Michael Ryan, just missing out on election at the local elections in May and SF's Maurice Quinlivan will be very worried after his party lost 4 of their 6 seats and their vote more than halved across the council and collapsing in the City itself. In Mayo, Aontu has a very likeable local candidate in footballer and teacher, Paul Lawless, who has made a big impression with his taking buses of locals to Belfast for cataract operations they can't get locally. Hw didn't do too badly in the Claremorris LEA, and Aunto also stood in Swinford, and polled well there too; they hirt both SF and FF. He could be a strong candidate. During the Wexford byelection, the media ignored Aontu's Jim Codd, even though he was elected im May, which was bizarre. Nevertheless, he polled over 5% and, with no press pushing him out im a byelection spotlight, he will be worth watching. He camoaigns very much from the left. In Leo Varadker's Constituency of Dublin West, Edward MacManus is likely to be the Aomtu candidate; a local pharmacist, he just failed to be elected in Castleknock and seemed to have most damaged Sinn Fein. In the same constituency, former Green Party Dail candidate, Simead Moore, polled well in Mulhuddart for Aontu. They aren't going to win a seat, but they will go for the Taoiseach. In Louth, SF could lose a seat to FF after a dismal set of local elections, Labour also polled well in a former strong area for them. I will reflect more in the next days. I think Tóibín will be re-elected but at the moment I see them struggling to take seats anywhere else - even Cavan-Monaghan where there was a perception that O'Reilly had been badly done by within FF - although they may well clear the 2% nationally for party funding in the next Dáil. |
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