obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 861 
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Post by obsie on Dec 2, 2019 2:20:10 GMT
Couple of comments:
1. Whether I4C retains a presence in the next Dáil is going to be down to the battle between Joan Collins (who is the only remaining I4C TD) and Bríd Smith of SWP t/a PBP in Dublin South Central (Smith is also the Trots' best chance of holding on to any of their seats), and whether Mulligan can hold enough of the by-election vote to get in in Fingal, probably at the expense of Louise O'Reilly of SF. Nolan had flatlined in the local elections despite running in two areas in Clondalkin/Palmerstown. Wallace not having any organisation in Wexford is not a surprise for an ex-TD who made a point of not doing any constituency work and would probably have lost next time round before he got out ahead of the posse in May. At least Brussels is a handier base for travelling to Champions' League matches.
2. I don't think Aontú cost SF the seat in Cork North Central because I suspect a lot of their vote is not ex-SF in any case and at least as much is ex-FF. Codd put up a decent performance in Wexford although that might have been expected given that he was one of the three candidates who got elected in the locals.
3. The SocDems performance was dismal if not unexpected, given that McNally was the runner-up in Dublin Mid West in the last Dáil election but both herself and Carey (another hyped candidate in Fingal) had failed to get elected in the locals. They will hold their two existing seats on personal votes (and decent performances in the locals in those constituencies) but the only real hope of growth is in Dublin Central where Gannon will try to get enough of the Stoneybatter demographic to lever him in, with the prospect of the internal struggle between the current leadership and the idpol obsessives only getting worse as a result.
4. Keddy is based in Wicklow not Wexford. O'Doherty's schtick not getting much traction shouldn't be much of a surprise (though nonetheless a relief) because the street ambushes of Halal shops in Swords and Longford are too in-your-face for most people even of that disposition (I haven't seen any box tallies from Fingal but it would be interesting to see how she performed in Balbriggan).
5. SF had good performances in Cork and Clondalkin where they have a solid base and were able to cannibalise the ex-Trot vote (and again they had reasonable local election performances there). Wexford was a decent performance given the poor results there in the locals (Mythen losing his own seat) but Fingal is probably their most vulnerable seat in Dublin despite O'Reilly's media prominence. If they're going to shift one of their Mid West TDs into South West I would have thought it would make more sense to run Ó Broin there given that Ward seems to be very locally-based in north Clondalkin.
6. Labour were lucky with the by-elections in that two of them came in constituencies where they hold seats and one was in one of their few bright spots in the locals (Fingal) although the Greens made sure that they underperformed expectations there. At least it gives them solid succession prospects for Ryan and Howlin. Cork was middling and Dublin Mid West was mediocre.
7. FF can be happy with the two non-Dublin results (there would be a possibility of a second seat in CNC if they balance their vote). The Dublin results were OK but middling although I'm not entirely convinced that Fingal was ever as promising as it looked even before the Twitter trawl started.
8. FG's showing should really be a wake-up call for the ruling Deefer clique but it won't be. Not getting to the last two in three out of four seats is a very bad result. Much worse awaits them next year in the badlands beyond the County Dublin boundary.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 10, 2020 23:43:52 GMT
Varadkar expected to call election next week.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 10, 2020 23:46:45 GMT
Will it be Threaly Rae this time?
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 11, 2020 0:41:19 GMT
Will it be Threeley Rae this time? Kerry should be interesting.. Will the Healy Rae's retain their huge vote from 2016.. SF might struggle, due to Martin Ferris retiring and his daughter who would have been the prospective candidate, declining to run on medical grounds.. A second seat in the constituency, will be a prime target for Fianna Fail. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 11, 2020 21:00:41 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 12, 2020 0:49:13 GMT
Will it be Threaly Rae this time? and it seems that if they did put up a third Independent candidate and wanted to keep it in the family there's over 100 potential candidates. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 12, 2020 5:07:33 GMT
Will it be Threaly Rae this time? and it seems that if they did put up a third Independent candidate and wanted to keep it in the family there's over 100 potential candidates. What a fascinatingly bizarre read. |
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Post by dizz on Jan 12, 2020 9:54:56 GMT
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jan 12, 2020 13:55:53 GMT
To note that there was a boundary review in 2017. The Dail will increase by 2 members but there will be a reduction in the number of constituencies by one; Laois and Offaly which had been two separate 3-member constituencies will be combined into a 5 member. Full details available from the Constituency Commission. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 12, 2020 15:39:19 GMT
Here's hoping that the good burghers of the Republic give SF a fright like the electorate in the North did.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,716
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 12, 2020 18:33:22 GMT
To note that there was a boundary review in 2017. The Dail will increase by 2 members but there will be a reduction in the number of constituencies by one; Laois and Offaly which had been two separate 3-member constituencies will be combined into a 5 member. Full details available from the Constituency Commission. Interestingly, both the former leader of Renua, John Leahy, and former SF TD Carol Nolan (who left over the SF refusal of a conscience clause on abortion) are standing as Independents. From the Offaly end of the new constituency, they have a good chance to be elected, maybe one, if not both. |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 861
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Post by obsie on Jan 12, 2020 20:45:27 GMT
To note that there was a boundary review in 2017. The Dail will increase by 2 members but there will be a reduction in the number of constituencies by one; Laois and Offaly which had been two separate 3-member constituencies will be combined into a 5 member. Full details available from the Constituency Commission. Interestingly, both the former leader of Renua, John Leahy, and former SF TD Carol Nolan (who left over the SF refusal of a conscience clause on abortion) are standing as Independents. From the Offaly end of the new constituency, they have a good chance to be elected, maybe one, if not both. Both are from west Offaly (Nolan from Birr and Leahy from Ferbane) so it will be one at most. I was surprised by Nolan taking a seat last time, so I may be underestimating her, but Leahy strikes me as probably having the better chance of the two. The FG seat in Offaly may be vulnerable - Corcoran-Kennedy has been a poor vote-getter and the impending closure of the power station at Shannonbridge and the run-down of peat-harvesting, which is a major employer in an otherwise depressed area, may damage FG (particularly given Varadkar's attempts to pose in woke greenery). |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 13, 2020 16:39:25 GMT
Marian Harkin, former TD and MEP, running as a independent in Sligo-Letrim.
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 13, 2020 16:42:12 GMT
Marian Harkin, former TD and MEP, running as a independent in Sligo-Letrim. former TD for who? |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 13, 2020 16:45:21 GMT
Marian Harkin, former TD and MEP, running as a independent in Sligo-Letrim. former TD for who? She's always been an independent.. Fine Gael courted her to run for the party in the upcoming election, but she declined. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 13, 2020 16:54:23 GMT
In the European Parliament she sat in the ALDE group.
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 13, 2020 16:57:06 GMT
She's always been an independent.. Fine Gael courted her to run for the party in the upcoming election, but she declined. Ah, i see. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 13, 2020 17:20:12 GMT
Dr Michael Harty not seeking re-election in Clare.
Barring any major developments or a disastrous election day, Fianna Fail are nailed on to gain a second seat in the constituency.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 861
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Post by obsie on Jan 13, 2020 19:22:13 GMT
She's always been an independent.. Fine Gael courted her to run for the party in the upcoming election, but she declined. FG looking to be in deep doo-doo in Sligo-Leitrim (this may well turn out to be a theme in a number of Western and/or rural constituencies). Their sitting TD is standing down and both candidates initially selected (former TD Gerry Reynolds in Leitrim and Sinéad Maguire, a new councillor in Sligo) have pulled out of the race in succession, leaving them with former Roscommon TD Frank Feighan (stood down in the 2016 election before voters got the chance to express their opinion of his performance, appointed as a Senator by Enda Kenny, sought but failed to be selected by the Sligo-Leitrim membership), added to the ticket by party HQ, as the only candidate. Their selected candidate in Roscommon also withdrew her name last week. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 13, 2020 21:52:28 GMT
Verona Murphy (former FG by-election candidate), set to announce tomorrow morning whether she'll run as a independent, in Wexford.
SF will be running two candidates in Dublin Mid-West.. despite their recent by-election win in the constituency (on horrific turnout), clearly a risky strategy in a 4 seater..
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