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Post by greenhert on Sept 17, 2019 13:11:28 GMT
On a related note, when are those four Dail by-elections (all due to TDs becoming MEPs) going to be held?
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 861 
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Post by obsie on Sept 17, 2019 14:20:24 GMT
On a related note, when are those four Dail by-elections (all due to TDs becoming MEPs) going to be held? Writs have to be legally moved by January 2 (six months after the first sitting of the European Parliament session).
Update: November 29th mentioned as the prospective date.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2019 19:34:51 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Oct 26, 2019 16:39:01 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 23, 2019 18:03:22 GMT
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Post by irish observer on Nov 24, 2019 18:19:42 GMT
There are four Dáil by-elections to be held in Ireland this Friday. 2 in Dublin, 1 in Wexford and 1 in Cork City.
The by-election in Dublin Fingal arises from the election of Clare Daly (Independents 4 Change) as a MEP. The constituency contains some sprawling rural hinterland but is a large urban 5 seater running from Balbriggan to Portmarnock taking in urban communities along the Dublin-Belfast train line as well as Swords. In recent times Balbriggan contains a large new-Irish community.
Candidates:
Glenn Brady IND
Tracey Carey Social Democrats
Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee Fianna Fáil
Cllr Ann Graves Sinn Féin
Charlie Keddy IND
Cormac McKay IND
Cllr Dean Mulligan I4C
Cllr Joe O'Brien GRN
Gemma O'Doherty IND
Peadar O'Kelly IND
Senator James Reilly
Cllr Duncan Smith
I see this as a contest between Green and Labour. Both were newly elected in 2019 but there is a green tide and Labour did well here in the local elections. Given the age of Brendan Ryan should Smith prevail I feel this would encourage Ryan to stand down at the next election. If Greens don't win I think they've a good shot in the general. Graves barely held onto her council seat. Mulligan will be backed by Daly but does not have the same constituency wide recognition. O'Doherty is a conspiracy theorist journalist and O'Kelly wants to kill seagulls. Clifford-Lee was doing well here and had a decent showing in last general. However her recent twittergate issues have likely damaged her here. Don't see Reilly winning here.
The Dublin Mid-West Dáil by-election arises following the election of Frances Fitzgerald as a MEP. As a result the Government are very keen to retain this seat. The constituency is diverse taking in communities like Clondalkin, Lucan, Palmerstown, Blanchardstown, deprived areas like Neilstown and smaller semi-rural villages like Newcastle, Rathcoole and Saggart.
Candidates:
David Gardiner WP
Cllr Paul Gogarty IND
Cllr Emer Higgins FG
Cllr Peter Kavanagh GRN
Charlie Keddy IND
Edward McManus Aontu
Ann-Marie McNally SOC DEM
Cllr Shane Moynihan FF
Ruth Nolan I4C
Kelly Sweeney PBPA
Cllr Francis Timmons IND
Cllr Joanna Tuffy LAB
Cllr Mark Ward SF
I see this as a two-horse race between Emer Higgins the FG candidate and Paul Gogarty the former TD. However as there are substantial left-wing votes they should transfer to Gogarty over Higgins. Given the Green surge in Dublin there would be a Green TD here at the next general in Gogarty's absence. Even if Higgins doesn't win in the by-election she will win a seat in the general where Gino Kenny will lose his.
The by-election in Wexford is caused by the election of Mick Wallace (I4C) as a MEP.
Candidates:
Cinnamon Blackmore PBPA
Cllr Malcolm Byrne FF
Cllr Jim Codd AONTU
Karin Dubsky GRN
Charlie Keddy IND
Cllr George Lawlor LAB
Verona Murphy FG
Johnny Mythen SF
Melissa O'Neill IFP
Geography plays a major role in Wexford politics especially so in a by-election. Some interesting characters in this race. Mythen came very close to winning a Dail seat in 2016 and then lost his council seat in 2019. Overall SF lost 3 Cllrs in Wexford including 1 to Aontu. I don't consider either at the races here. O'Neill was a SF Cllr in Kilkenny who was expelled from the party. She actually ran in an LEA of Kilkenny and Waterford County Council unsuccessfully in 2019. She is now running for the Irish Freedom Party who support Irexit. Charlie Keddy is a Wexford native who is running in some other constituencies also. He is serial anti-abortion and anti-tax on homes. The Greens actually didn't contest here in 2019 but Wexford has always been somewhat more rural than neighbouring Wicklow or Waterford and I don't see a breakout even in a general. George Lawlor is a PA/SPAD to Brendan Howlin and his successor in the event of retirement.
I see this as a contest between Byrne and Murphy. Byrne polled very well in locals and in Euros in Ireland-South also. Murphy is currently President of the Road Haulage Association. Prominent profile with Brexit but has dropped a few clangers such as saying there was no homelessness in Wexford and recently apologising 3 times over racist comments made towards immigrants. Lawlor's transfers will be crucial here.
The last bye-election is in Cork North-Central caused by the election of Billy Kelleher (FF) as a MEP. This constituency is more proletarian in outlook than its southern neighbour comprising Gurranebraher, Bishopstown and Knocknaheeny however the recent boundary extension of the city has incorporated Blarney and the constituency has expanded more northwards in recent times to take in more rural areas such as Dripsey and Watergrasshill.
Candidates:
Senator Colm Burke FG
Martin Condon IND
James Coughlan WP
Cllr Thomas Gould SF
Sinead Halpin Soc Dem
Charlie Keddy IND
Thomas Kiely Housing Rights Alliance
Cllr John Maher LAB
Cllr Oliver Moran GRN
Cllr Padraig O'Sullivan FF
CLLr Fiona Ryan SOL/PBP
Fintan Toomey AONTU
This seat used be represented by Jack Lynch and I have seen on social media references to Jack Lynch territory. I think such talk is causatory. O'Sullivan is from Little Island (represents Cobh) but has recently moved to Glanmire which was Kelleher's base. He remains favourite however. Burke was a former MEP and Cllr for FG and it is indicated that the contest is between him and O'Sullivan. Maher is from outside the city on the Northern environs (brought in by boundary extension). How will Moran poll? SF fortunes have dipped of late and while Gould is a vocal advocate on housing matters SF cannot win 2 seats here. There remains regardless a substantial left-wing vote to transfer here.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 24, 2019 18:25:04 GMT
There are four Dáil by-elections to be held in Ireland this Friday. 2 in Dublin, 1 in Wexford and 1 in Cork City. The by-election in Dublin Fingal arises from the election of Clare Daly (Independents 4 Change) as a MEP. The constituency contains some sprawling rural hinterland but is a large urban 5 seater running from Balbriggan to Portmarnock taking in urban communities along the Dublin-Belfast train line as well as Swords. In recent times Balbriggan contains a large new-Irish community. Candidates: Glenn Brady IND Tracey Carey Social Democrats Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee Fianna Fáil Cllr Ann Graves Sinn Féin Cormac McKay Cllr Dean Mulligan I4C Cllr Joe O'Brien GRN Gemma O'Doherty IND Senator James Reilly Cllr Duncan Smith I see this as a contest between Green and Labour. Both were newly elected in 2019 but there is a green tide and Labour did well here in the local elections. Given the age of Brendan Ryan should Smith prevail I feel this would encourage Ryan to stand down at the next election. If Greens don't win I think they've a good shot in the general. Graves barely held onto her council seat. Mulligan will be backed by Daly but does not have the same constituency wide recognition. O'Doherty is a conspiracy theorist journalist. Clifford-Lee was doing well here and had a decent showing in last general. However her recent twittergate issues have likely damaged her here. The Dublin Mid-West Dáil by-election arises following the election of Frances Fitzgerald as a MEP. As a result the Government are very keen to retain this seat. The constituency is diverse taking in communities like Clondalkin, Lucan, Palmerstown, Blanchardstown, deprived areas like Neilstown and smaller semi-rural villages like Newcastle, Rathcoole and Saggart. Candidates: David Gardiner WP Cllr Paul Gogarty IND Cllr Emer Higgins FG Cllr Peter Kavanagh GRN Charlie Keddy IND Edward McManus Aontu Ann-Marie McNally SOC DEM Cllr Shane Moynihan FF Ruth Nolan I4C Kelly Sweeney PBPA Cllr Francis Timmons IND Cllr Joanna Tuffy LAB Cllr Mark Ward SF I see this as a two-horse race between Emer Higgins the FG candidate and Paul Gogarty the former TD. However as there are substantial left-wing votes they should transfer to Gogarty over Higgins. Given the Green surge in Dublin there would be a Green TD here at the next general in Gogarty's absence. Even if Higgins doesn't win in the by-election she will win a seat in the general where Gino Kenny will lose his. The by-election in Wexford is caused by the election of Mick Wallace (I4C) as a MEP. Candidates: Cinnamon Blackmore PBPA Cllr Malcolm Byrne FF Cllr Jim Codd AONTU Karin Dubsky GRN Charlie Keddy IND Cllr George Lawlor LAB Verona Murphy FG Johnny Mythen SF Melissa O'Neill IFP Geography plays a major role in Wexford politics especially so in a by-election. Some interesting characters in this race. Mythen came very close to winning a Dail seat in 2016 and then lost his council seat in 2019. Overall SF lost 3 Cllrs in Wexford including 1 to Aontu. I don't consider either at the races here. O'Neill was a SF Cllr in Kilkenny who was expelled from the party. She actually ran in an LEA of Kilkenny and Waterford County Council unsuccessfully in 2019. She is now running for the Irish Freedom Party who support Irexit. Charlie Keddy is a Wexford native who is running in some other constituencies also. He is serial anti-abortion and anti-tax on homes. The Greens actually didn't contest here in 2019 but Wexford has always been somewhat more rural than neighbouring Wicklow or Waterford and I don't see a breakout even in a general. George Lawlor is a PA/SPAD to Brendan Howlin and his successor in the event of retirement. I see this as a contest between Byrne and Murphy. Byrne polled very well in locals and in Euros in Ireland-South also. Murphy is currently President of the Road Haulage Association. Prominent profile with Brexit but has dropped a few clangers such as saying there was no homelessness in Wexford and recently apologising 3 times over racist comments made towards immigrants. Lawlor's transfers will be crucial here. The last bye-election is in Cork North-Central caused by the election of Billy Kelleher (FF) as a MEP. Candidates: Senator Colm Burke FG Martin Condon IND James Coughlan WP Cllr Thomas Gould SF Sinead Halpin Soc Dem Thomas Kiely Housing Rights Alliance Cllr John Maher LAB Cllr Oliver Moran GRN Cllr Padraig O'Sullivan FF CLLr Fiona Ryan SOL/PBP Fintan Toomey AONTU This seat used be represented by Jack Lynch and I have seen on social media references to Jack Lynch territory. I think such talk is causatory. O'Sullivan is from Little Island (represents Cobh) but has recently moved to Glanmire which was Kelleher's base. He remains favourite however. Burke was a former MEP and Cllr for FG and it is indicated that the contest is between him and O'Sullivan. Maher is from outside the city on the Northern environs (brought in by boundary extension). How will Moran poll? SF fortunes have dipped of late and while Gould is a vocal advocate on housing matters SF cannot win 2 seats here. There remains regardless a substantial left-wing vote to transfer here. Thanks for these I O , very interesting. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 24, 2019 18:25:31 GMT
There are four Dáil by-elections to be held in Ireland this Friday. 2 in Dublin, 1 in Wexford and 1 in Cork City. The by-election in Dublin Fingal arises from the election of Clare Daly (Independents 4 Change) as a MEP. The constituency contains some sprawling rural hinterland but is a large urban 5 seater running from Balbriggan to Portmarnock taking in urban communities along the Dublin-Belfast train line as well as Swords. In recent times Balbriggan contains a large new-Irish community. Candidates: Glenn Brady IND Tracey Carey Social Democrats Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee Fianna Fáil Cllr Ann Graves Sinn Féin Cormac McKay Cllr Dean Mulligan I4C Cllr Joe O'Brien GRN Gemma O'Doherty IND Senator James Reilly Cllr Duncan Smith I see this as a contest between Green and Labour. Both were newly elected in 2019 but there is a green tide and Labour did well here in the local elections. Given the age of Brendan Ryan should Smith prevail I feel this would encourage Ryan to stand down at the next election. If Greens don't win I think they've a good shot in the general. Graves barely held onto her council seat. Mulligan will be backed by Daly but does not have the same constituency wide recognition. O'Doherty is a conspiracy theorist journalist. Clifford-Lee was doing well here and had a decent showing in last general. However her recent twittergate issues have likely damaged her here. The Dublin Mid-West Dáil by-election arises following the election of Frances Fitzgerald as a MEP. As a result the Government are very keen to retain this seat. The constituency is diverse taking in communities like Clondalkin, Lucan, Palmerstown, Blanchardstown, deprived areas like Neilstown and smaller semi-rural villages like Newcastle, Rathcoole and Saggart. Candidates: David Gardiner WP Cllr Paul Gogarty IND Cllr Emer Higgins FG Cllr Peter Kavanagh GRN Charlie Keddy IND Edward McManus Aontu Ann-Marie McNally SOC DEM Cllr Shane Moynihan FF Ruth Nolan I4C Kelly Sweeney PBPA Cllr Francis Timmons IND Cllr Joanna Tuffy LAB Cllr Mark Ward SF I see this as a two-horse race between Emer Higgins the FG candidate and Paul Gogarty the former TD. However as there are substantial left-wing votes they should transfer to Gogarty over Higgins. Given the Green surge in Dublin there would be a Green TD here at the next general in Gogarty's absence. Even if Higgins doesn't win in the by-election she will win a seat in the general where Gino Kenny will lose his. The by-election in Wexford is caused by the election of Mick Wallace (I4C) as a MEP. Candidates: Cinnamon Blackmore PBPA Cllr Malcolm Byrne FF Cllr Jim Codd AONTU Karin Dubsky GRN Charlie Keddy IND Cllr George Lawlor LAB Verona Murphy FG Johnny Mythen SF Melissa O'Neill IFP Geography plays a major role in Wexford politics especially so in a by-election. Some interesting characters in this race. Mythen came very close to winning a Dail seat in 2016 and then lost his council seat in 2019. Overall SF lost 3 Cllrs in Wexford including 1 to Aontu. I don't consider either at the races here. O'Neill was a SF Cllr in Kilkenny who was expelled from the party. She actually ran in an LEA of Kilkenny and Waterford County Council unsuccessfully in 2019. She is now running for the Irish Freedom Party who support Irexit. Charlie Keddy is a Wexford native who is running in some other constituencies also. He is serial anti-abortion and anti-tax on homes. The Greens actually didn't contest here in 2019 but Wexford has always been somewhat more rural than neighbouring Wicklow or Waterford and I don't see a breakout even in a general. George Lawlor is a PA/SPAD to Brendan Howlin and his successor in the event of retirement. I see this as a contest between Byrne and Murphy. Byrne polled very well in locals and in Euros in Ireland-South also. Murphy is currently President of the Road Haulage Association. Prominent profile with Brexit but has dropped a few clangers such as saying there was no homelessness in Wexford and recently apologising 3 times over racist comments made towards immigrants. Lawlor's transfers will be crucial here. The last bye-election is in Cork North-Central caused by the election of Billy Kelleher (FF) as a MEP. Candidates: Senator Colm Burke FG Martin Condon IND James Coughlan WP Cllr Thomas Gould SF Sinead Halpin Soc Dem Thomas Kiely Housing Rights Alliance Cllr John Maher LAB Cllr Oliver Moran GRN Cllr Padraig O'Sullivan FF CLLr Fiona Ryan SOL/PBP Fintan Toomey AONTU This seat used be represented by Jack Lynch and I have seen on social media references to Jack Lynch territory. I think such talk is causatory. O'Sullivan is from Little Island (represents Cobh) but has recently moved to Glanmire which was Kelleher's base. He remains favourite however. Burke was a former MEP and Cllr for FG and it is indicated that the contest is between him and O'Sullivan. Maher is from outside the city on the Northern environs (brought in by boundary extension). How will Moran poll? SF fortunes have dipped of late and while Gould is a vocal advocate on housing matters SF cannot win 2 seats here. There remains regardless a substantial left-wing vote to transfer here. With all due respect... |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 30, 2019 12:45:11 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 30, 2019 12:46:18 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 30, 2019 12:50:36 GMT
From those tallies, I'd predict 2 FF, 1 GP..
Dublin Mid-West too close to call.
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Post by therealriga on Nov 30, 2019 15:30:28 GMT
2 FF, 1 GP, 1 SF.
Sinn Féin look too far ahead in Dublin mid-west (what a rubbish name for a constituency, by the way.)
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 30, 2019 16:52:50 GMT
As the transfers have come in, it's becoming increasingly clear SF can't be caught in Dublin Mid-West. Surprising gain, disaster for Fine Gael..
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Post by therealriga on Nov 30, 2019 18:53:55 GMT
As the transfers have come in, it's becoming increasingly clear SF can't be caught in Dublin Mid-West. Surprising gain, disaster for Fine Gael.. What's surprising about it? In the last election FG had 26.3% of first preferences, SF were second with 22.7%. In a by-election, with FG in government, that's a very small margin to overcome. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 30, 2019 19:56:15 GMT
As the transfers have come in, it's becoming increasingly clear SF can't be caught in Dublin Mid-West. Surprising gain, disaster for Fine Gael.. What's surprising about it? In the last election FG had 26.3% of first preferences, SF were second with 22.7%. In a by-election, with FG in government, that's a very small margin to overcome. The SF vote in Dublin collapsed, during the local and European elections last May.. Recent polls haven't shown a recovery for SF, and they've been rather positive for Fine Gael i.e 28-30%.. So, yes, its a surprise that SF have actually increased their vote share in this by-election compared to 2016, and gained the seat. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 30, 2019 23:12:14 GMT
First ever Green gain in a Dail by-election in Ireland.
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Post by greenhert on Dec 1, 2019 14:01:50 GMT
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Post by irish observer on Dec 1, 2019 18:35:56 GMT
Quite content with overall by-election performance. 2 wins, could have been 3 bar for twitter.
FF will retain 2 seats in Wexford after the next GE. Byrne is an excellent candidate, very transfer friendly. Great to see FF taking more transfers from FG than Labour. Lawlor polled very well here. Does Howlin retire at GE for new blood like him? The racist candidate damaged FG everywhere.
Solid retention of the Cork seat by O'Sullivan. Burke of FG has to be pleased by his performance as his vote share ensures they have a seat. Gould performed excellently and got his vote out. What do SF do come 2016?
Turning to Dublin. I did not see Ward taking Dublin Mid-West though he did well in debates and was known as a hard worker. Tallies indicated higher turnout in North Clondalkin, Neilstown etc than middle-class areas meaning that SF mobilised. He also did get left-wing transfers. Regarding the context of the next GE by common consent Gino Kenny is gone. There is a FG seat here then and likely a Green seat too. As Seán Crowe in Dublin SW is of a certain age could SF move Ward into there?
Greens had a good base from the locals in Fingal, a history also and Trevor Sargent also got involved in campaign. Poor FG, SF and Independent campaigns here. Not a great Labour performance either. I would favour Greens holding this seat. FF had hopes of a second seat here. If they want it now they have to fight SF. Louise O'Reilly of SF is a high-profile spokesperson. They had a terrible local elections and also a v bad by-election. Is her position as vulnerable as it seems?
In a couple of weeks some academics/journalists and other commentators will be saying it was an awful tragedy that all 4 seats were filled by men in democratic elections and hence more gender quotas/restrictions are needed.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,714
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 1, 2019 19:34:25 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,714
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 1, 2019 19:44:01 GMT
I am surprised that the media are overwhelmingly pretending that Aontu aren't there, yet they polled well in Wexford with Cllr Jum Codd and I can see a big push there at the oncoming GE. I think Pat Kelly's decision to back Finian Toomey in a future GE will be quite interesting as well, as FF will be effected by this. Would be surprised to see FG rushing to an election now, but FF should pull the plug as they will poll better if they stop propping up Varadkar. |
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