CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 14, 2020 0:12:01 GMT
I am looking forward to this election: Sinn Fein are facing an awful election after the locals, Fine Gael look to be under pressure in the Rural constituencies due to Health Service scandals/waiting lists, appalling transport, beef farmers being priced out, etc. Fianna Fail will be under pressure due to shoring up the FG government for so long, the interest over the Green surge, the continuing fissiparous nature of the far-left and the many Independent choices. Also, Aontu might do some damege here and there. I am genuinely perplexed why you think Aountú will amount to anything. Recent elections north and south have shown this. This is a sophisticated electorate voting for 1 of 2 choices of a lead Government. That option is an utter irrelevancy. I am also more confident that FF will emerge with more seats than FG in spite of FG's message of positive economic management. The key debate may well be one over the economy if held between Michael McGrath and Paschal Donohoe. I have posted more at length. I do not expect them to amount to a lot, but they will, as I have expanded above, have an effect. Can you argue they don't have a good chance of winning Cavan-Monaghan and Meath West? Can you argue they haven't cost Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail.votes in other areas? In sophisticated electorates, small margins matter. Seriously, with so many TDs who do not belong to Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, do you really believe people are simply voting for 1 of 2 choices? |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 14, 2020 0:19:40 GMT
Irish elections just depress me. Glad i dont live there no one to vote for Funnily enough, I would have said exactly the same about the British edition last month. Ultimately they aren't that different. After all, all British and Irish citizens will have been able to vote for a weird, failing Labour Party, and Scottish residents could vote for Fianna Fail. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2020 0:50:29 GMT
I am looking forward to this election: Sinn Fein are facing an awful election after the locals, Fine Gael look to be under pressure in the Rural constituencies due to Health Service scandals/waiting lists, appalling transport, beef farmers being priced out, etc. Fianna Fail will be under pressure due to shoring up the FG government for so long, the interest over the Green surge, the continuing fissiparous nature of the far-left and the many Independent choices. Also, Aontu might do some damege here and there. Irish elections just depress me. Glad i dont live there no one to vote for I'd have the same problem. There doesn't seem to be any credible centre-left party. |
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 14, 2020 0:56:02 GMT
Irish elections just depress me. Glad i dont live there no one to vote for I'd have the same problem. There doesn't seem to be any credible centre-left party. Couldn't agree more. My famiky gave up on Irish Labour years ago. |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Jan 14, 2020 1:11:57 GMT
Not tempted by the Social Democrats?
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 14, 2020 7:59:56 GMT
Irish elections just depress me. Glad i dont live there no one to vote for I'd have the same problem. There doesn't seem to be any credible centre-left party. That's reminded me that Bertie Ahern claimed he was a socialist. |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Jan 14, 2020 8:22:31 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 14, 2020 8:44:12 GMT
Will Peter Robinson head over the border to campaign in Clontibret?
|
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jan 14, 2020 9:51:12 GMT
I learned something!
Phew. That was a narrow escape.
|
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jan 14, 2020 10:00:28 GMT
Laois-Offaly (5) : Due to RIC/Tan Controversy of his instigation Flanagan deserves to lose his seat and I think he will. Prediction: 3FF 1FG 1SF Kildare South (4): No change. Prediction: 2FF (Includes CC) 1FG 1LAB. Kildare North (4): FF's second seat is slightly more vulnerable and I think the Greens could benefit here. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SD 1GRN Cavan-Monaghan (5): Senator Joe O'Reilly was recently pensioned off the FG ticket. Given the poor performance of SF in Cavan in 2019 I feel FG are more likely to take 2 seats than SF. Prediction: 2FF 2FG 1SF Sligo-Leitrim (4): With Harkin's candidacy I give her a seat especially with FG debacle. Only selection of Quinn Exec, McCartin, may prevent a seat loss. Prediction: 2FF 1SF 1IND. Tipperary (5): Amended Prediction - 2 Indo 1FF 1FG 1Lab. I am not predicted which Indo will lose at moment, however, of McGrath or Healy. Kelly is stronger now than in 2017 despite loss of the Newport areas. Dublin Central (4): Amended Prediction - 1FG 1SF safe. Give last 2 seats to FF and GRN. Mary Fitzpatrick is a Cllr in this area now again and a credible candidate and the Greens have a base since 2019 in both LEAs. I favour both of them over Gannon of SD. 1FG 1SF 1GRN 1FF. Dublin North-West (3): The Drumcondra boundary addition plus the local elections and his current Mayoralty greatly assist McAuliffe. Shortall is safe. Rock is high-profile however despite boundary issues. Up until last week SF could have been as vulnerable. Still favour 1SD 1FF 1SF. I honestly don't think the votes to elect five people with major party labels exist in any but the most affluent fiveseater. Leash Offaly is certainly more plausible than Cavan Monaghan, but 3 seats for FF? It's been a long while since that has been seen anywhere. |
|
|
|
Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 14, 2020 11:33:03 GMT
Election officially called for Feb 8th.
|
|
|
|
Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 14, 2020 12:12:59 GMT
Peter Casey, previously a presidential and EU election candidate, running as an independent in Donegal.
|
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Jan 14, 2020 12:56:09 GMT
Election officially called for Feb 8th. Same date as the Ireland Wales 6 Nations Match. Some will say it will depress turnout also given issues with the register. Poor date IMO. |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Jan 14, 2020 13:07:30 GMT
I honestly don't think the votes to elect five people with major party labels exist in any but the most affluent fiveseater. Leash Offaly is certainly more plausible than Cavan Monaghan, but 3 seats for FF? It's been a long while since that has been seen anywhere.
Firstly Flanagan is very politically unpopular across the state - self inflicted and FF were very close to gaining an additional seat in the 3 seat Offaly last time. Even in 2011 the party retained 2 seats. Now there is considerable resentment among Bord Na Mona workers, also an issue across the midlands, who feel abandoned by Government with plants closing and no real plans for their long-term security. This will cost FG votes in Offaly also.
|
|
|
|
Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 14, 2020 13:33:08 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 14, 2020 13:36:12 GMT
Election officially called for Feb 8th. Same date as the Ireland Wales 6 Nations Match. Some will say it will depress turnout also given issues with the register. Poor date IMO. The following weekend, half of Ireland will be in Paris to see Rory Best (who has changed his mind about retirement) lift the Six Nations. Coincidentally, I seem to be in Paris that weekend... |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Jan 14, 2020 13:40:46 GMT
Finian McGrath has bowed out of politics. In Dublin Bay North (5) you would have Bruton (FG) and Haughey (FF) and Broughan (Ind) due to his work effort. Mitchell (SF) very vulnerable. I give a seat to Healy of the Greens. I have never heard Mitchell speak in the Dáil. The absence of McGrath is a great chance for O Riordán (Lab) or O'Callaghan (SD) to make a gain.
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 14, 2020 18:42:24 GMT
Laois-Offaly (5) : Due to RIC/Tan Controversy of his instigation Flanagan deserves to lose his seat and I think he will. Prediction: 3FF 1FG 1SF Kildare South (4): No change. Prediction: 2FF (Includes CC) 1FG 1LAB. Kildare North (4): FF's second seat is slightly more vulnerable and I think the Greens could benefit here. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SD 1GRN Cavan-Monaghan (5): Senator Joe O'Reilly was recently pensioned off the FG ticket. Given the poor performance of SF in Cavan in 2019 I feel FG are more likely to take 2 seats than SF. Prediction: 2FF 2FG 1SF Sligo-Leitrim (4): With Harkin's candidacy I give her a seat especially with FG debacle. Only selection of Quinn Exec, McCartin, may prevent a seat loss. Prediction: 2FF 1SF 1IND. Tipperary (5): Amended Prediction - 2 Indo 1FF 1FG 1Lab. I am not predicted which Indo will lose at moment, however, of McGrath or Healy. Kelly is stronger now than in 2017 despite loss of the Newport areas. Dublin Central (4): Amended Prediction - 1FG 1SF safe. Give last 2 seats to FF and GRN. Mary Fitzpatrick is a Cllr in this area now again and a credible candidate and the Greens have a base since 2019 in both LEAs. I favour both of them over Gannon of SD. 1FG 1SF 1GRN 1FF. Dublin North-West (3): The Drumcondra boundary addition plus the local elections and his current Mayoralty greatly assist McAuliffe. Shortall is safe. Rock is high-profile however despite boundary issues. Up until last week SF could have been as vulnerable. Still favour 1SD 1FF 1SF. I honestly don't think the votes to elect five people with major party labels exist in any but the most affluent fiveseater. Leash Offaly is certainly more plausible than Cavan Monaghan, but 3 seats for FF? It's been a long while since that has been seen anywhere. I would be surprised if Laois-Offaly is only party represented. I could see John Leahy, now an Independent who topped the poll in Birr as successful Renua candidate, and wasn't to far off a seat in the old Offaly constituency last time, putting in a challenge. Is Carol Nolan standing as an Independent this time? She will hurt SF if she does and the SF vote collapsed in the Offaly local elections, losing all three councillors. Brian Stanley is surely safe due to his strength in Laois. I agree that Flanagan has made a complete idiot of himself and deserves to lose, but I just can't see the votes for three FF TDs. I am going to go for 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 other. |
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 14, 2020 18:53:42 GMT
Peter Casey, previously a presidential and EU election candidate, running as an independent in Donegal. Interesting. I am no fan of the man at all, but he polled well among rural voters and in this constituency at the 2018 presidential election. I can see him taking a seat here. Sinn Fein polled well here in the locals, unlike the rest of the Republic, but I cannot see them adding a seat. I think Independent Thomas Pringle might struggle to hold his seat, but we shall see. |
|
|
|
Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 14, 2020 19:05:59 GMT
I honestly don't think the votes to elect five people with major party labels exist in any but the most affluent fiveseater. Leash Offaly is certainly more plausible than Cavan Monaghan, but 3 seats for FF? It's been a long while since that has been seen anywhere. I would be surprised if Laois-Offaly is only party represented. I could see John Leahy, now an Independent who topped the poll in Birr as successful Renua candidate, and wasn't to far off a seat in the old Offaly constituency last time, putting in a challenge. Is Carol Nolan standing as an Independent this time? She will hurt SF if she does and the SF vote collapsed in the Offaly local elections, losing all three councillors. Brian Stanley is surely safe due to his strength in Laois. I agree that Flanagan has made a complete idiot of himself and deserves to lose, but I just can't see the votes for three FF TDs. I am going to go for 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 other. Yep, Nolan has confirmed she'll be running for re-election as an independent. |
|
