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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 29, 2024 19:49:22 GMT
If I remember right from previous Irish elections, it takes until the late afternoon on Saturday to get all the first preference vote counts.
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 29, 2024 19:51:54 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 29, 2024 19:56:53 GMT
No, it isn't BS. He uses a model which maps polls, local elections, local candidates, etc. He doesn't claim it is perfect, especially as the last seats can be marginal when it comes to predicting the results, but it is an excellent and honest attempt at prediction. |
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 29, 2024 20:16:26 GMT
If I remember right from previous Irish elections, it takes until the late afternoon on Saturday to get all the first preference vote counts. Lots of strong coffee is in order. Another reason to advocate for open party lists over STV with the electoral reformers amongst us. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 29, 2024 20:55:22 GMT
If I remember right from previous Irish elections, it takes until the late afternoon on Saturday to get all the first preference vote counts. Lots of strong coffee is in order. Another reason to advocate for open party lists over STV with the electoral reformers amongst us. No, it's a reason to use a computer to count the votes. |
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 29, 2024 21:45:51 GMT
Lots of strong coffee is in order. Another reason to advocate for open party lists over STV with the electoral reformers amongst us. No, it's a reason to use a computer to count the votes. If only they could be trusted to function. Actually I find STV fascinating, particularly the second preferences data we get from Scottish local elections. And I acknowledge its status as the holy grail of electoral systems amongst Lib Dems and others. But for the 3rd, 4th, 5th etc transfers to potentially carry the same weight is its main flaw. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 29, 2024 22:03:47 GMT
RTÉ exit poll
SF 21.1
FG 21.0
FF 19.5
SD 5.8
Lab 5.0
Aontú 4.0
PBP-Solidarity 3.1
Green Party 3.0
Independent Ireland 2.2
Other parties 1.9
Independents 12.7
Margin of error 1.4%
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 29, 2024 22:08:29 GMT
Suspect Simon Harris will relatively happily with that after the campaign he's had.
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 29, 2024 22:11:28 GMT
Lots of strong coffee is in order. Another reason to advocate for open party lists over STV with the electoral reformers amongst us. No, it's a reason to use a computer to count the votes. The votes were counted electronically a few years back but it was hated by the candidates. The results were flashed on the screen within seconds. At least one lady sitting TD broke down at her 'instant defeat'. |
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Post by connor on Nov 29, 2024 22:22:42 GMT
Will be likely Harris stays on as Taoiseach with FF as a minority partner. One wonders if the Greens will be eager for another go at government, or if they have enough for a two party coalition.
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Post by relique on Nov 29, 2024 22:29:07 GMT
No, it's a reason to use a computer to count the votes. The votes were counted electronically a few years back but it was hated by the candidates. The results were flashed on the screen within seconds. At least one lady sitting TD broke down at her 'instant defeat'. I would love to have an STV system for the French senate to have one chamber with the role of government formation and the other the role of allowing diverse opinions to have sway in the making of the law. Given our election counts (lots of volunteers in 1000-1500 voters station including local councillors) that doesn't really allow a long coordinated count, I would imagine a system in which the small dozens of thousands stations only count the first preference vote and declare it for the station (which would allow continuing to follow local preferences and would give local station volunteers to get some result in exchange for their work). Then votes could be transfered as always to the préfectures and sous préfecture for a confirmation count of the first preference and then the other counts. With départements as constituencies and sous préfecture as big polling counting stations maybe with volunteers from all local government entities. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 29, 2024 22:39:29 GMT
The votes were counted electronically a few years back but it was hated by the candidates. The results were flashed on the screen within seconds. At least one lady sitting TD broke down at her 'instant defeat'. I would love to have an STV system for the French senate to have one chamber with the role of government formation and the other the role of allowing diverse opinions to have sway in the making of the law. Given our election counts (lots of volunteers in 1000-1500 voters station including local councillors) that doesn't really allow a long coordinated count, I would imagine a system in which the small dozens of thousands stations only count the first preference vote and declare it for the station (which would allow continuing to follow local preferences and would give local station volunteers to get some result in exchange for their work). Then votes could be transfered as always to the préfectures and sous préfecture for a confirmation count of the first preference and then the other counts. With départements as constituencies and sous préfecture as big polling counting stations maybe with volunteers from all local government entities. You'd really need a centralised count for STV elections or electronic voting. |
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Post by relique on Nov 29, 2024 22:48:57 GMT
I would love to have an STV system for the French senate to have one chamber with the role of government formation and the other the role of allowing diverse opinions to have sway in the making of the law. Given our election counts (lots of volunteers in 1000-1500 voters station including local councillors) that doesn't really allow a long coordinated count, I would imagine a system in which the small dozens of thousands stations only count the first preference vote and declare it for the station (which would allow continuing to follow local preferences and would give local station volunteers to get some result in exchange for their work). Then votes could be transfered as always to the préfectures and sous préfecture for a confirmation count of the first preference and then the other counts. With départements as constituencies and sous préfecture as big polling counting stations maybe with volunteers from all local government entities. You'd really need a centralised count for STV elections or electronic voting.
I guess in the presidential election, Ireland still has a number of counting places, no ? So a 5 counting places system for the 1st and the others would be ok, no ? (the first count would just be a way to get results locally and at least one result the evening of the election).
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 29, 2024 22:56:23 GMT
You'd really need a centralised count for STV elections or electronic voting. I guess in the presidential election, Ireland still has a number of counting places, no ? So a 5 counting places system for the 1st and the others would be ok, no ? (the first count would just be a way to get results locally and at least one result the evening of the election).
Just checked and the presidential count is constituency based. I had an inkling that past counts, years ago, were at Dublin but that may have been the one-off senate election. Sorry but the way you count in France, very localised, would prove too bureaucratic and even slower for STV. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 29, 2024 23:05:50 GMT
If I remember right from previous Irish elections, it takes until the late afternoon on Saturday to get all the first preference vote counts. Lots of strong coffee is in order. Another reason to advocate for open party lists over STV with the electoral reformers amongst us. The Irish counts were a tad quicker back in the 70s/80s when there were more 3-member seats and fewer candidates. Not unusual for only four candidates to fight a 3-seater. You had to tune your wireless into a longwave band to receive RTE. 1977 was rather exciting as the unexpected landslide unfolded. Lots of comments about the Tullymander etc. The RTE map for 1977 at 22.34 on counting day:- |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 29, 2024 23:41:33 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 29, 2024 23:56:35 GMT
this is interesting, so last time we had 1x SF 1x FF 1x Ind 1x FG. This time SF have run two candidates. It looks like it will be 1x FG 1x FF 1x SF and the fourth spot is likely to be between SF, Ind or FF |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 30, 2024 0:46:25 GMT
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,140 
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Post by Foggy on Nov 30, 2024 1:52:35 GMT
Last night's RTÉ exit poll coverage actually extended well beyond an hour, but the live feed was geoblocked here as soon as the overran started because the website thought RTÉ Two had moved onto the next programme which apparently couldn't be shown in GB due to rights issues.
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