I tries a bit of a predicion with one week to go.
My bets are:
- a good enough last two weeks for Sinn Féin but not as good as 2020, so still not good enough to get anywhere near a clear SF-led government,
- a terrible last two weeks for the government and especially Fine Gael, which is already happening but won't get any better until election day,
- a new toxicity for the Greens in terms of FPV and transfers, with any "soft left" leading the pack except for them getting the transfers,
- a good bump for Aontu in the crowd that made the independents rise in the last local and european elections, but not a huge one,
For reference, I used the 2020 results, so Independent Ireland and Wexford Independent Alliance appear new even though there are four incumbents (stars are given for the incumbents switching groups), and the Dublin-Bay South by election are not taken into account in the total of FG and LP. I also grouped Independent 4 chance and Right 2 change as I really didn't follow this split.
Prediction:
SF: 22,4% (-2,2), 49 seats (+11)
FG: 19,6% (-1,2), 37 seats (+1)
FF: 19,2% (-3), 38+1 seats (=)
Ind: 11,6% (-0,6), 19 seats (=)
SD: 4,4% (+1,5), 8 seats (+2)
GP: 4,3% (-2,8), 1 seat (-11)
II: 4,2% (new), 5 seats (+5***)
Ao: 4,0% (+2,1), 4 seats (+3)
LP: 3,7% (-0,7), 4 seats (-2)
S-PBP: 2,6% (=), 4 seats (-1)
IPP: 0,8% (+0,8), 0 seat (=)
I4C/R2C: 0,6% (+0,2), 2 seats (+1)
IFP: 0,6% (+0,3), 0 seat (=)
100%R: 0,5% (new), 1 seat (new)
NP: 0,4% (+0,2), 0 seat (=)
Wexford Indep: 0,3% (new), 1 seat (+1*)
AR: 0,2% (new), 0 seat
IF: 0,1% (new), 0 seat
LR: 0,1% (former Direct Democracy Ireland, 0,3% in 2016), 0 seat
Cen: 0,1% (former Renua 0,3% in 2020), 0 seat
WUA: 0,1%, 0 seat
In the constituencies that didn't get divided or an extra seat I predict 6 with no change in seat allocation (Cork N-W, Galway W, Kerry, Kildare S, Louth, Sligo-Leitrim) and 18 with some changes that would result in:
+7 SF
+5 II (***)
+1 FG (+3 FG and -2 FG)
+1 Aontu
+1 100% Redress
= FF (+3 FF and -3 FF)
-1 LP (+1 LP and -2 LP)
-1 S-PBP
-5 Ind (***)
-8 GP
in the 10 constituencies with an extra seat I see benefitting:
+3 SF (including one with -1 GP and +1 S-PBP)
+2 SD (including one with -1 S-PBP and +1 II)
+2 Ind
+2 Aontu
+1 FG
+1 II (with -1 S-PBP and +1 SD)
+1 S-PBP (with -1 GP and +1 SF)
In the 5 constituencies that become 9, I see benefitting from the 4 extra seats:
+3 Ind
+2 SF
+1 FF
+1 I4C
+1 Wexford Independent (*)
and losing:
-2 GP
-1 LP
-1 Ind(*)
So FF-FG government that would need at least 12 TDs. Independents ? SD ? It could prove needing long negociations, and being a quite short-lived government...
