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Post by relique on Feb 4, 2020 22:55:36 GMT
I'm watching the three-way debate. I feel Fianna Fail is getting hammered by about every one. Varadkar, despite what seems like a very bad campaign, might be able to retain votes who don't feel FF would be better. SF seems not to be rising like a star but not crashing either... I'll try to do some predictions tomorrow from the continent  |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Feb 5, 2020 5:22:21 GMT
I could see the SF poll lead tailing off well before the votes are cast. There will be noises from Brussels, and there will be stories about various firms saying they wanted to relocate from London but are holding fire just in case. Electorate (or a section thereof) will shit their kecks, the Greens and minor leftish groups will profit, FF get in as a minority government. Threat of SF means that FG return FF's favour and quietly allow them to get on with governing. Why hasn't this happened already? Either it's because the trend wasn't noticed or it was because Sinn Fein is seen as a party that won't fundamentally alter Ireland's economic (or social) model and will satisfy itself with tokenistic gestures on the national question. I think it's the latter. |
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Post by relique on Feb 5, 2020 11:03:24 GMT
So, my continental predictions...
In terms of first preferences and total elected:
FF: 24.47% (46) FG: 19.62% (31) SF: 19.14% (37) GP: 8.23% (16) La: 5.88% (5) SD: 2.85% (3) S-PBPA: 2.74% (4) Work &Unemp: 0.44% (1)
Independent: 12.51% (17) Aontu: 2,15% (0) Rn: 0.84% (0) I4C: 0.57% (0) NP: 0.21% (0) IFP: 0.16% (0) WP: 0.11% (0)
IDP: 0,08% (0) UP: 0.01% (0)
I accepted the idea that FG and SF are overestimated generally in polls and FF underestimated, but I believe in the last week, some votes will return to FG from FF.
The idea of real change might sway a lot of transfers and FG might be toxic and SF less than usual.
Greens would attract a lot of transfers for change as well.
So by constituencies it is (yes, there are a quite a few long-shot gambles!):
Ca-K: 1FG, 2FF, 1SF, 1GP Ca-M: 1FG, 2FF, 2SF
Cl: 2FF, 1SF, 1Ind (McNamara) Co-E: 1FG, 1 FF, 1SF, 1Lab Co-N-C: 1FF, 1SF, 1GP, 1AAA Co-N-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1GP Co-S-C: 1FG, 2FF, 1SF Co-S-W: 1FG, 1SF, 1Ind (Michael Collins) Do: 2FF, 2SF, 1Ind (Thomas Pringle) Du-B-N: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Lab, 1GP Du-B-S: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1GP Du-C: 1FF, 1SF, 1Lab, 1GP Du-F: 1 FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Lab, 1GP Du-M-W: 1FG, 2SF, 1Ind (Paul Gogarty) Du-N-W: 1SF, 1SD, 1GP Du-R: 1FG, 1Ind (Shane Ross), 1GP Du-S-C: 1FF, 1SF, 1GP, 1PBPA Du-S-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1GP, 1Rise Du-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1GP Dun L: 1FG, 1FF, 1GP, 1PBPA Gal-E: 1FG, 1FF, 1Ind (Sean Canney) Gal-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Ind (Cathrine Connolly), 1GP Ke: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 2Ind (Michael & Danny Healy Rae) Ki-N: 1FG, 1FF, 1SD, 1GP Ki-S: 1FG, 2*FF, 1SF
Laois-Offaly: 1FG, 3FF, 1SF Li Co: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF Li Ci: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Ind (Frankie Daly) Lo-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Ind (Kevin 'Boxer' Moran) Lou: 1FG, 1FF, 2SF, 1GP Mayo: 1FG, 2FF, 1SF Me-E: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF Me-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF R-G: 1FF, 2 Ind (Michael Fitzmaurice & Denis Naughten) S-L: 2FF, 1SF, 1Ind (Marian Harkin) Tipperary: 1FF, 1SF, 2Ind (Michael Lowry & Mattie McGrath), 1 Wo&Unemp A Wa: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Ind (Matt Shanahan) We: 1FG, 2FF, 1SF, 1Lab Wi: 2FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1SD
So FF+FG= 77, with 4 independents needed I guess. But I don't know if it will be a big coalition or a confidence & supply.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 5, 2020 12:27:11 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 5, 2020 12:42:27 GMT
Bugger, there goes my planned joke about it being a long wait to Tipperary! |
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Post by relique on Feb 5, 2020 12:43:37 GMT
Bugger, there goes my planned joke about it being a long wait to Tipperary!
I think you are not alone in your frustration !
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 5, 2020 13:03:47 GMT
Bugger, there goes my planned joke about it being a long wait to Tipperary!
I think you are not alone in your frustration !
I had no idea a Frenchman would know the song! (Which is not actually Irish) |
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Post by relique on Feb 5, 2020 13:17:23 GMT
I think you are not alone in your frustration !
I had no idea a Frenchman would know the song! (Which is not actually Irish) from 1:02
I mean... I don't think that's the only way I heard it. Probably many films & tv series referencing it at least (there must be a joke in The Thick of it or In the loop, no ? )
Edit: Of yes I remember the movie:
La Grande Illusion, de Jean Renoir with Jean Gabin.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 5, 2020 13:31:37 GMT
I think you are not alone in your frustration !
I had no idea a Frenchman would know the song! (Which is not actually Irish) I think it was given quite a good airing in France.. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 5, 2020 13:47:31 GMT
That's confusing. Presumably the election is going ahead as planned, because the law says that it should do so in the event of the death of a candidate. In which case, why did they need to be told that it would go ahead, and why was there ever a suggestion that it might not? Is there some sort of ad hoc discretion allowed? |
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 5, 2020 13:59:05 GMT
The problem seems to be that the constitution is clear a general election has to take place within 30 days of the dissolution of the Dail. There were legal challenges brought, including by a sitting independent TD for the constituency, with challenges both against late polling and against counting the rest first. A lot were concerned a tight result in the rest of the state would then have to wait for Tipperary, others didn't want entire national parties descending upon a single seat.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 5, 2020 14:59:20 GMT
So, my continental predictions...
In terms of first preferences and total elected:
FF: 24.47% (46) FG: 19.62% (31) SF: 19.14% (37) GP: 8.23% (16) La: 5.88% (5) SD: 2.85% (3) S-PBPA: 2.74% (4) Work &Unemp: 0.44% (1)
Independent: 12.51% (18) Aontu: 2,15% (0) Rn: 0.84% (0) I4C: 0.57% (0) NP: 0.21% (0) IFP: 0.16% (0) WP: 0.11% (0)
IDP: 0,08% (0) UP: 0.01% (0)
I accepted the idea that FG and SF are overestimated generally in polls and FF underestimated, but I believe in the last week, some votes will return to FG from FF.
The idea of real change might sway a lot of transfers and FG might be toxic and SF less than usual.
Greens would attract a lot of transfers for change as well.
So by constituencies it is (yes, there are a quite a few long-shot gambles!):
Ca-K: 1FG, 2FF, 1SF, 1GP Ca-M: 1FG, 2FF, 2SF
Cl: 2FF, 1SF, 1Ind (McNamara) Co-E: 1FG, 1 FF, 1SF, 1Lab Co-N-C: 1FF, 1SF, 1GP, 1AAA Co-N-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1GP Co-S-C: 1FG, 2FF, 1SF Co-S-W: 1FG, 1SF, 1Ind (Michael Collins) Do: 2FF, 2SF, 1Ind (Thomas Pringle) Du-B-N: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Lab, 1GP Du-B-S: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1GP Du-C: 1FF, 1SF, 1Lab, 1GP Du-F: 1 FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Lab, 1FP Du-M-W: 1FG, 2SF, 1Ind (Paul Gogarty) Du-N-W: 1SF, 1SD, 1GP Du-R: 1FG, 1Ind (Shane Ross), 1GP Du-S-C: 1FF, 1SF, 1GP, 1PBPA Du-S-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1GP, 1Rise Du-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1GP Dun L: 1FG, 1FF, 1GP, 1PBPA Gal-E: 1FG, 1FF, 1Ind (Sean Canney) Gal-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Ind (Cathrine Connolly), 1GP Ke: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 2Ind (Michael & Danny Healy Rae) Ki-N: 1FG, 1FF, 1SD, 1GP Ki-S: 1FG, 2*FF, 1SF
Laois-Offaly: 1FG, 3FF, 1SF Li Co: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF Li Ci: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Ind (Frankie Daly) Lo-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Ind (Kevin 'Boxer' Moran) Lou: 1FG, 1FF, 2SF, 1GP Mayo: 1FG, 2FF, 1SF Me-E: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF Me-W: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF R-G: 1FF, 2 Ind (Michael Fitzmaurice & Denis Naughten) S-L: 2FF, 1SF, 1Ind (Marian Harkin) Tipperary: 1FF, 1SF, 2Ind (Michael Lowry & Mattie McGrath), 1 Wo&Unemp A Wa: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1Ind (Matt Shanahan) We: 1FG, 2FF, 1SF, 1Lab Wi: 2FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1SD
So FF+FG= 77, with 4 independents needed I guess. But I don't know if it will be a big coalition or a confidence & supply.
Some longshot gambles, indeed. I will put my guesses up in the next day or two. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 5, 2020 20:34:47 GMT
Looks like Pringle will struggle to hold on in Donegal (in fact, I think he is gone). Will the Cope hang on with only one FF seat available?
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Post by relique on Feb 5, 2020 20:45:04 GMT
Looks like Pringle will struggle to hold on in Donegal (in fact, I think he is gone). Will the Cope hang on where only one FF seat available? With that kind of results, the 5th seat will probably depend on SF transfers (10 points if we consider that there's at least 6 to 2nd candidate) ! |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 5, 2020 21:11:32 GMT
Looks like Pringle will struggle to hold on in Donegal (in fact, I think he is gone). Will the Cope hang on where only one FF seat available? With that kind of results, the 5th seat will probably depend on SF transfers (10 points if we consider that there's at least 6 to 2nd candidate) ! On these figures, there will be no spare FG votes after McHugh holds on, John O'Donnell being ahead of Pringle is a blow, but the latter will be hoping to hold on long enough for SF transfers, but I do not see it. Miford councillor O'Donnell is a marmite character, unlikely to pick up transfers. With the spread, it is just possible to see both FF seats holding on with later counts, but would take a lot of votes from SF transfers and the transfers from Aontu. The thing is, if The Cope doesn't hold on, who will take the last seat? |
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Post by relique on Feb 5, 2020 21:34:05 GMT
With that kind of results, the 5th seat will probably depend on SF transfers (10 points if we consider that there's at least 6 to 2nd candidate) ! On these figures, there will be no spare FG votes after McHugh holds on, John O'Donnell being ahead of Pringle is a blow, but the latter will be hoping to hold on long enough for SF transfers, but I do not see it. Miford councillor O'Donnell is a marmite character, unlikely to pick up transfers. With the spread, it is just possible to see both FF seats holding on with later counts, but would take a lot of votes from SF transfers and the transfers from Aontu. The thing is, if The Cope doesn't hold on, who will take the last seat? If we compare it to 2016:
FF: -9,8
FG: +0,1
SF: +15,3 (with Doherty doing +5,3 than the total of the three SF)
Pringle: -3,3 other independents: -8
FF seem poised to lose a seat but I agree, it is not clear at all who will take it. I'm still betting that Pringle gets enough SF transfers... But I don't know that much about the guy and I'm happy to read analysis of his positions and if he could be a good "number 3" or not for SF voters.
Edit: with those numbers, in fact the 5th seat is a SF seat ! That's why we are puzzled ! Doherty has almost two quotas, and then there's a well placed MachLochlainn for a third SF seat !
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 5, 2020 22:09:54 GMT
FG's vote in the various constituency polls that have been released, seems to be holding up..
Stark contrast to the national polls.
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 5, 2020 22:17:54 GMT
"Adore your FG TD, hate FG nationally"?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 5, 2020 23:28:55 GMT
"Adore your FG TD, hate FG nationally"? The really fun bit is that if you're a Lib Dem voter here, you've got a very strong and popular liberal party to vote for in Ireland. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 6, 2020 0:00:10 GMT
"Adore your FG TD, hate FG nationally"? The really fun bit is that if you're a Lib Dem voter here, you've got a very strong and popular liberal party to vote for in Ireland. Fine Gael are not a 'very strong and popular liberal party'. They are the conservative parry of Ireland who recently discovered social liberalism. |
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