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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 6, 2020 0:27:08 GMT
The really fun bit is that if you're a Lib Dem voter here, you've got a very strong and popular liberal party to vote for in Ireland. Fine Gael are not a 'very strong and popular liberal party'. They are the conservative parry of Ireland who recently discovered social liberalism. Ahem...I was referring to the Lib Dem sister party, as enjoyed by obvious Liberals like Charlie Haughey... |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 6, 2020 0:34:20 GMT
Fine Gael are not a 'very strong and popular liberal party'. They are the conservative parry of Ireland who recently discovered social liberalism. Ahem...I was referring to the Lib Dem sister party, as enjoyed by obvious Liberals like Charlie Haughey... Well, cover me in Sunpat crunchy and send me into Belle Vue's monkey house. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 6, 2020 0:37:34 GMT
Ahem...I was referring to the Lib Dem sister party, as enjoyed by obvious Liberals like Charlie Haughey... Well, cover me in Sunpat crunchy and send me into Belle Vue's monkey house. Sunpat? Luxury. You've clearly more jam than Duerrs! |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 6, 2020 0:39:07 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 6, 2020 1:31:02 GMT
A SF commissioned poll, released on the worst news day for SF, after the half-hearted apology to the parents of a young man who had every bone broken - bad form and I can't believe Survation will be pleased. |
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Post by relique on Feb 6, 2020 7:39:43 GMT
A SF commissioned poll, released on the worst news day for SF, after the half-hearted apology to the parents of a young man who had every bone broken - bad form and I can't beieve Survation will be pleased. This story is quite weird. It is deemed horrible of SF to have repeated in fact what the FF Taisoeach at the time said in the Dail. In 2007. And so Mcdonald should answer for a now Sinn Féin minister who said, after hearing it from the taoiseach and apparently people he knew in the region something like every one accepted that. What the taoiseach and the SF minister was, a couple of weeks afterwards contested by the family and the taoiseach apologized. And now it's a SF scandal a few days before voting. But no journalist talks about the fact that the taoiseach at the time said the same thing officially November 15 2007 www.irishtimes.com/news/garda-says-quinn-killing-a-criminal-feud-ahern-1.982248December 19 2007 www.irishtimes.com/news/ahern-says-quinn-not-a-criminal-1.992814 |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,790
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Post by mboy on Feb 6, 2020 9:55:27 GMT
Re-judging the past by today's different standards is a favourite of the SJW hard left (which typically includes SF) so they should suck it up.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 6, 2020 12:07:22 GMT
A SF commissioned poll, released on the worst news day for SF, after the half-hearted apology to the parents of a young man who had every bone broken - bad form and I can't beieve Survation will be pleased. This story is quite weird. It is deemed horrible of SF to have repeated in fact what the FF Taisoeach at the time said in the Dail. In 2007. And so Mcdonald should answer for a now Sinn Féin minister who said, after hearing it from the taoiseach and apparently people he knew in the region something like every one accepted that. What the taoiseach and the SF minister was, a couple of weeks afterwards contested by the family and the taoiseach apologized. And now it's a SF scandal a few days before voting. But no journalist talks about the fact that the taoiseach at the time said the same thing officially November 15 2007 www.irishtimes.com/news/garda-says-quinn-killing-a-criminal-feud-ahern-1.982248December 19 2007 www.irishtimes.com/news/ahern-says-quinn-not-a-criminal-1.992814But Ahern withdrew and apologised within a short-time, Murphy hasn't and, indeed, even today refuses to withdraw the claim. Also, the reason SF are carrying the weight is two-fold: SF members have run a vile social media campaign attacking the Quinns and Murphy lied about what he had said, putting Mary Lou in a cleft stick. SF have to learn the old Denis Healey maxim; when you are in a ditch, stop digging. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 6, 2020 12:27:56 GMT
A SF commissioned poll, released on the worst news day for SF, after the half-hearted apology to the parents of a young man who had every bone broken - bad form and I can't beieve Survation will be pleased. Breege Quinn and her husband were on Nolan last night, along with Pete Byrne.. Heartbreaking to hear the horrendous state that Paul was left after he was ambushed. As with many families, they deserve justice, and the fact it's took 13 years and a election campaign for Murphy to apologise for his comments, utterly vile. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 6, 2020 13:35:54 GMT
With that kind of results, the 5th seat will probably depend on SF transfers (10 points if we consider that there's at least 6 to 2nd candidate) ! On these figures, there will be no spare FG votes after McHugh holds on, John O'Donnell being ahead of Pringle is a blow, but the latter will be hoping to hold on long enough for SF transfers, but I do not see it. Miford councillor O'Donnell is a marmite character, unlikely to pick up transfers. With the spread, it is just possible to see both FF seats holding on with later counts, but would take a lot of votes from SF transfers and the transfers from Aontu. The thing is, if The Cope doesn't hold on, who will take the last seat? That's not really the question. If the Cope doesn't hold on (or if McConologue doesn't), then Tom Pringle takes the 2 1/2th seat for SF. The question is, does the Cope (and McConologue) hold on on these fi gures, and the answer is probably yes. EDIT: That's taking your word on O'Donnell, something I have no way of judging. Obviously otherwise he's in the running too. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 6, 2020 16:53:03 GMT
Ahem...I was referring to the Lib Dem sister party, as enjoyed by obvious Liberals like Charlie Haughey... Well, cover me in Sunpat crunchy and send me into Belle Vue's monkey house. A vision I will find it difficult to shake for at least the rest of Thursday. |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
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Post by clyde1998 on Feb 6, 2020 21:54:17 GMT
I've put the last election results into a seat calculator and the most recent five-poll average gives Sinn Fein 42 seats (FF 42, FG 39) - which would be all of their candidates.  Albeit that's without accounting for this election's candidates, and where they're running, and without adjusting the number of STV seats per constituency and accounting for the merger of Laois and Offaly. It also uses this 2016 transfer analysis: link. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 8, 2020 0:47:50 GMT
My final prediction, after going through each constituency :
Carlow Kilkenny - 3 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG
Cavon Monaghan - 2 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG
Clare - 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF.
Cork East - 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG.
Cork North Central - 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG.
Cork North West - 2 FF, 1 FG.
Cork South Central - 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG.
Cork South West- 1 FF, 1 Ind, 1 FG.
Donegal - 2 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG.
Dublin Bay North - 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 Labour, 1 SD.
Dublin Bay South - 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Green, 1 SF.
Dublin Central - 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Green.
Dublin Fingal - 1 FF, 1 Green, 1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 SF.
Dublin Mid West - 2 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG.
Dublin North West - 1 SD, 1 SF, 1 FF.
Dublin Rathdown - 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Green.
Dublin South Central - 1 SF, 1 Green, 1 Ind, 1 FF.
Dublin South West - 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 Green, 1 SOL-PBP, 1 FG.
Dublin West - 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Green, 1 SF.
Dún Laoghire - 1 SOL - PBP, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Green.
Galway East - 1 Ind, 1 FF, 1 FG.
Galway West - 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Ind, 1 SF.
Kerry - 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 Ind, 1 FG.
Kildare North - 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 SD.
Kildare South - 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF.
Laois Offaly - 3 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF.
Limerick City - 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 Labour.
Limerick County - 2 FG, 1 FF.
Longford Westmeath - 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 Ind.
Louth - 2 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour.
Mayo - 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG.
Meath East - 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF.
Meath West - 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Aontu.
Roscommon Galway - 2 Ind, 1 FF.
Sligo Letrim - 2 FF, 1 Ind, 1 SF.
Tipperary - 2 Ind, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour.
Waterford - 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 Ind.
Wexford - 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 Labour, 1 Ind.
Wicklow - 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 SD.
57 FF (including CC), 35 FG, 34 SF, 8 Green, 6 Labour, 4 SD, 2 SOL-PBP, 1 Aontu, 13 Ind.
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Post by relique on Feb 8, 2020 1:36:48 GMT
I'm reading all the reactions on twitter... I guess there are a lot of SF sympathizers, so we should acknowledge a bias in the responses... But I cant' find a single response that is positive or neutral...
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Feb 8, 2020 1:57:51 GMT
Prediction I made elsewhere - think I'm actually overestimating FG, GP and SF (especially the first two) and underestimating the others and small parties.
FF: 45
FG: 36
SF: 35
GP: 12
LAB: 7
SOL-PBP: 3
SOCDEM: 3
AON: 0
INDS: 19
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2020 9:54:51 GMT
What time are results expected to be declared?
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Post by relique on Feb 8, 2020 9:59:40 GMT
What time are results expected to be declared? The count will start tomorrow morning I believe.
I don't know how much time does it take to have the results of the first count. Two hours ? Three ?
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Post by hiberno on Feb 8, 2020 10:06:46 GMT
Prediction I made elsewhere - think I'm actually overestimating FG, GP and SF (especially the first two) and underestimating the others and small parties. FF: 45 FG: 36 SF: 35 GP: 12 LAB: 7 SOL-PBP: 3 SOCDEM: 3 AON: 0 INDS: 19 Shinnerbots out in force. Still very sore over having their asses handed to them on a plate in Foyle in the UK election. |
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Post by relique on Feb 8, 2020 10:11:29 GMT
Prediction I made elsewhere - think I'm actually overestimating FG, GP and SF (especially the first two) and underestimating the others and small parties. FF: 45 FG: 36 SF: 35 GP: 12 LAB: 7 SOL-PBP: 3 SOCDEM: 3 AON: 0 INDS: 19 Shinnerbots out in force. Still very sore over having their asses handed to them on a plate in Foyle in the UK election. Yes, such a great show of force of SDLP to recapture 34-years-dominated Foyle after a 2 year break while Belfast North was so easy for SF to get that it shouldn't count as a win ! |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 8, 2020 10:55:23 GMT
What time are results expected to be declared? The count will start tomorrow morning I believe.
I don't know how much time does it take to have the results of the first count. Two hours ? Three ?
Looking at RTE’s schedules they’ve got an election special at 9.55pm tonight - exit poll? and then results programme from 9.40am tomorrow. |
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