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Post by relique on Feb 8, 2020 11:20:49 GMT
The count will start tomorrow morning I believe.
I don't know how much time does it take to have the results of the first count. Two hours ? Three ?
Looking at RTE’s schedules they’ve got an election special at 9.55pm tonight - exit poll? and then results programme from 9.40am tomorrow. Yes, RTE and Irish Times have an IPSOS MRBI exit poll for tonight. I didn't see if there was another one ? |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 8, 2020 11:30:46 GMT
Looking at RTE’s schedules they’ve got an election special at 9.55pm tonight - exit poll? and then results programme from 9.40am tomorrow. Yes, RTE and Irish Times have an IPSOS MRBI exit poll for tonight. I didn't see if there was another one ? That’s the only one I can find, and there appears to have only been one last time as well. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Feb 8, 2020 11:53:29 GMT
Prediction I made elsewhere - think I'm actually overestimating FG, GP and SF (especially the first two) and underestimating the others and small parties. FF: 45 FG: 36 SF: 35 GP: 12 LAB: 7 SOL-PBP: 3 SOCDEM: 3 AON: 0 INDS: 19 Shinnerbots out in force. Still very sore over having their asses handed to them on a plate in Foyle in the UK election. Do you know anything about me? |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 8, 2020 13:54:38 GMT
Shinnerbots out in force. Still very sore over having their asses handed to them on a plate in Foyle in the UK election. Yes, such a great show of force of SDLP to recapture 34-years-dominated Foyle after a 2 year break while Belfast North was so easy for SF to get that it shouldn't count as a win ! To recapture Foyle with the highest percentage of the vote we've ever received in the constituency.. yes, it was what you would describe a 'show of force'. SF rarely suffer such electoral reverses.. And, how exactly was Belfast North easy for SF to get ? Finucane was largely helped by the SDLP not fielding a candidate.. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 8, 2020 15:07:28 GMT
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 8, 2020 16:22:31 GMT
They're still massively transfer unfriendly (can't possibly think why...) so would have to top the first preferences by some distance to turn that into the most seats. Sinn Fein are the closest you can get to a fascist party who are entirely content (now) in pursuing their objectives via democratic elections. Of course if they ever got majority power in Ireland (virtually impossible) they'd make Fico & Orban look like rank amateurs. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 8, 2020 17:03:38 GMT
No, because even though they are polling well enough to win more seats on the 1st or 2nd count, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have both stated they will not enter any coalition with Sinn Fein, whether as the senior or junior partner. There is no prospect of SF (or any party in Ireland for that matter) winning enough seats to govern by itself or with friendly independents.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2020 17:06:13 GMT
Describing SF as the closest thing to a fascist party content with the parliamentary route for the time seems to me as being rather melodramatic.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2020 17:07:18 GMT
No, because even though they are polling well enough to win more seats on the 1st or 2nd count, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have both stated they will not enter any coalition with Sinn Fein, whether as the senior or junior partner. There is no prospect of SF (or any party in Ireland for that matter) winning enough seats to govern by itself or with friendly independents. grand coalition it is then |
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Post by chorleyboy on Feb 8, 2020 17:08:48 GMT
The count will start tomorrow morning I believe.
I don't know how much time does it take to have the results of the first count. Two hours ? Three ?
Looking at RTE’s schedules they’ve got an election special at 9.55pm tonight - exit poll? and then results programme from 9.40am tomorrow. BBC Parliament do not appear to be showing the RTE feed, although IIRC they have done so previously! 🤔 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 8, 2020 19:46:48 GMT
I posted a link to an article. I wasn't asking the sodding question! the clue is in the 'www' bit
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 8, 2020 20:36:29 GMT
Reading through all of the replies since you posted that link, I think they were all attacking the premise in the title of the article, which I think we all agree is implausible, even silly given the nature of the electoral system and the attitudes of the other major players. I think we all know you well enough to know that it wouldn't for one moment represent your view. So why the somewhat dramatic response ( even though I have "liked"it)? Are you getting a teeny bit oversensitive in your old age?  |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 8, 2020 20:51:07 GMT
Yes, RTE and Irish Times have an IPSOS MRBI exit poll for tonight. I didn't see if there was another one ? That’s the only one I can find, and there appears to have only been one last time as well. Does such a poll get down to constituency level? Just national percentages would not tell us much about how the election will pan out, from the look at all the various predictions on here, for instance . It looks as though everything will depend on the detail on the ground? |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 8, 2020 21:09:38 GMT
That’s the only one I can find, and there appears to have only been one last time as well. Does such a poll get down to constituency level? Just national percentages would not tell us much about how the election will pan out, from the look at all the various predictions on here, for instance . It looks as though everything will depend on the detail on the ground? Only national percentages.. Significant caveat with the exit poll, it tends to underestimate FF and overestimate the left.. |
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Post by relique on Feb 8, 2020 21:13:43 GMT
I think I saw somewhere a tweet about an exit poll organised for a specific constituency. My memory is failing me. But perhaps it was just a 'team' of IPSOS for a specific location.
Edit: found it ! For Sligo-Leitrim:
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 8, 2020 21:19:27 GMT
They seem to manage to be uncannily accurate in predicting Fine Gael!( that was of course a comment about the national polls quoted above- the constituency one just slipped in when I wasn't looking |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 8, 2020 21:27:12 GMT
I think I saw somewhere a tweet about an exit poll organised for a specific constituency. My memory is failing me. But perhaps it was just a 'team' of IPSOS for a specific location.
Edit: found it ! For Sligo-Leitrim:
Pity they don't give us the result of the Sligo school mock election. |
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Post by relique on Feb 8, 2020 21:32:12 GMT
I think I saw somewhere a tweet about an exit poll organised for a specific constituency. My memory is failing me. But perhaps it was just a 'team' of IPSOS for a specific location.
Edit: found it ! For Sligo-Leitrim:
Pity they don't give us the result of the Sligo school mock election.
I saw one in Wexford I believe with a FF candidate with something like 40 out of 70 1st preferences and Aontu candidate elected thanks to transfers.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on Feb 8, 2020 21:47:44 GMT
Betting related question: What percentage of the national vote does FF need before it's likely they'll get above 50 seats?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 8, 2020 22:01:07 GMT
RTÉ/Ipsos MRBI exit poll - 5,000 questioned. Margin of error 1.3%
FG 22.4
SF 22.3
FF 22.2
GP 7.9
Lab 4.6
SD 3.4
Sol-PBP 2.8
AON 1.8
Others 1.5
Inds 11.2
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