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Post by relique on Feb 8, 2020 22:06:21 GMT
So IPSOS said: "I don't know" !
There's gonna be a lot of nightmares in Fianna Fail...
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Feb 8, 2020 22:08:25 GMT
So IPSOS said: "I don't know" !
There's gonna be a lot of nightmares in Fianna Fail...
FF is usually too low in exit polls and the left is too high, so the order should be FF, FG, SF. |
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Post by relique on Feb 8, 2020 22:11:34 GMT
With these margins of error, no one can really tell until the last ballot is counted ! It's going to be an exciting sunday morning !
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Post by relique on Feb 8, 2020 22:16:18 GMT
Sligo-Leitrim exit poll. SF with half the vote of 2016 !
Sorry, I only saw 2nd preference and thought it was 1st !
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 8, 2020 22:20:13 GMT
I also continue to think with a virtual 3-way dead heat everything will depend on how it sorts out at constituency level. In the end it will matter very little , surely , whose nose is slightly in front on the national vote share.So the Sligo- Leitrim result is interesting but only really helpful if we had all the others!
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Feb 8, 2020 22:24:40 GMT
With these margins of error, no one can really tell until the last ballot is counted ! It's going to be an exciting sunday morning ! The difference is usually bigger than the MoE here. An Irish anorak (who I don't think posts here) said it's FF 23.6, FG 21.8, SF 21.2 if you apply the discrepancies between the 2016 MRBI exit poll and final result. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 8, 2020 22:28:02 GMT
Four seats in Sligo-Leitrim so the quota is 20% - I'd say the seats go SF/FF/FG/Ind. Battle for final seat between second FF and Marian Harkin.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Feb 8, 2020 22:31:39 GMT
RTÉ/Ipsos MRBI exit poll FG 22.4 SF 22.3 FF 22.2  lol Presumably after transfers SF will be clearly 3rd. Hope so. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 8, 2020 22:35:50 GMT
RTÉ/Ipsos MRBI exit poll FG 22.4 SF 22.3 FF 22.2 lol Presumably after transfers SF will be clearly 3rd. Hope so. They have only 42 candidates for 160 seats; in light of this result they must have under-nominated and might well have had the potential to win more seats. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 8, 2020 22:45:21 GMT
Not too confident with my overall prediction, after that exit poll.. I guess we'll see tomorrow. |
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Post by boondock on Feb 8, 2020 22:57:08 GMT
When does counting start?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 8, 2020 23:01:07 GMT
When does counting start? 9 AM tomorrow morning. |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,793
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Post by mboy on Feb 8, 2020 23:08:14 GMT
Graphic:
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Feb 8, 2020 23:12:54 GMT
Pointless speculation: if it's a dead heat in terms of seats, perhaps they could break the deadlock by making Michael Healy-Rae Taoiseach.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 8, 2020 23:22:32 GMT
I am not even gping to bother posting my predictions after that exit poll, I am going to wait until the tallies start to come in.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 8, 2020 23:31:47 GMT
Pointless speculation: if it's a dead heat in terms of seats, perhaps they could break the deadlock by making Michael Healy-Rae Taoiseach. Don't joke. It might happen.   |
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 8, 2020 23:45:45 GMT
Four seats in Sligo-Leitrim so the quota is 20% - I'd say the seats go SF/FF/FG/Ind. Battle for final seat between second FF and Marian Harkin. If it's anything like last time won't the initial battle be to get the ballot box open? ISTR they needed a hacksaw in the last election. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2020 23:47:00 GMT
What will be the best way to follow the results tomorrow?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2020 23:50:13 GMT
If I lived in Ireland the choice of Fine Gael or Fianna Fail would depress me so at least this shakes things up a bit.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2020 23:54:13 GMT
Describing SF as the closest thing to a fascist party content with the parliamentary route for the time seems to me as being rather melodramatic. offer me an alternative candidate the absence of an Orban like character in Ireland seems a poor argument in favour of arguing that SF is the closest thing to it. |
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lol
