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Post by irish observer on Feb 3, 2020 0:04:43 GMT
Why do you give no chance to Labour retaining their seat in Limerick? If you see last election results O'Sullivan benefitted from transfers from Prendeville of SOL/AAA to keep her seat. He is now gone from politics. There will be now a significant Green transfer in addition to a reduced Labour vote while O'Sullivan is also being squeezed by Quinlivan and to a lesser extent Collins the second FF candidate. She is under severe pressure in my opinion. |
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Post by irish observer on Feb 3, 2020 0:14:31 GMT
I think Lorna Bogue (Green) stands in good stead to win a seat in Cork South-Central, actually. Sinn Fein are not even standing candidates in Cork South West, surprisingly. Lorna Bogue while a Cllr is I understand actually from Limerick not Cork. This can be an issue for some parochial voters. In addition it is Green policy to oppose the construction of motorway between Cork and Limerick something which is supported in both cities and which will lose her votes. Cllr. Paul Hayes who won a seat in Skibereen LEA is running in Cork SW for SF. He won't win but will get a few thousand votes. |
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Post by irish observer on Feb 3, 2020 0:21:18 GMT
I would have thought that the unattractive FG ticket of "Bottler" Reilly and "Whiplash" Farrell could be vulnerable here, either to FF or to the Daly-supported Ind. Agree with most of the rest apart from possibly Dublin Bay South - I suspect FG will hold 2 here if they hold them anywhere unless private renters in Rathmines and Dublin 2 come out in force. Ross may also be vulnerable in Rathdown.
[/quote] I think O'Brien will poll too high in Fingal and both he and Clifford-Lee are from the same area around Malahide so limited opportunity for a gain. Unattractive FG ticket but they will get 1 through Farrell. I think Ross can shed loads of votes and still get in. However I see Murphy as a lightning rod for discontent. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 3, 2020 13:27:19 GMT
Munster Clare (4). Dr. Harty is retiring. FF gain a seat through Cathal Crowe as a result. I find it hard to see how FG can retain 2 seats here but I've looked through the field. No other candidate springs to mind. The Green Cllr is in rural Ennistymon. I can't see Michael McNamara being credible as an Independent. This is one of SF's weakest constituencies. Prediction: 2FF 2FG. Cork East (4). I would have seen change here c.6 months out. Now no change has to be favoured. Geography is very important here. O'Keeffe takes the FF seat, Sherlock for Labour, Stanton for FG and Buckley the last for SF. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF. Cork NC (4). Where Padraig O'Sullivan won by-election for FF. He will retain this seat. Thomas Gould will retain for SF. Mick Barry will hold for Sol/PBP. Lot of anger over Daragh Murphy of FG and I think they will lose seat as a result to FF's Tony Fitzgerald long-serving Cllr and former Lord Mayor. Prediction: 2FF 1SF 1SOL/PBP. Cork NW (3). Both Moynihans should retain their seats for FF. FG will keep 1 seat but in the form of John Paul O'Shea the former Independent. Michael Creed the Minister for Agriculture will be a casualty as farmers as very angry with FG over Mercosur and associated matters. I do not envisage a breakout for SF here. Prediction: 2FF 1FG. Cork SC (4). FF retain their 2 seats along with Coveney of FG comfortably. There has always been a left-wing seat here. O Laoghaire now has it and he will hold it for SF. Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1SF. Cork SW (3): Margaret Murphy-O'Mahony should retain her seat for FF along with FG's Lombard. Michael Collins will be comfortably re-elected as an Independent. No prospect for SF here. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1IND. Kerry (5): Both Healy-Raes in a canter. Griffin of FG. 1 FF seat which will probably be Brassil. Daly will retain for SF. This seat was gone some months ago. Prediction: 2IND 1FG 1FF 1SF. Limerick City (4). O'Dea to top the poll for FF. Kieran O'Donnell to retain Michael Noonan's seat for FG. Maurice Quinlivan will hold for SF. I don't think O'Dea will agree to vote management meaning his running mate won't win. Accordingly I think that Independent Cllr Daly will take last seat over O'Sullivan. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF 1IND. Limerick County (3). Old Limerick West a donkey with a FF rosette would get you 2 seats. Not the case now. I can only see Collins retaining on his own. Neville of FG is safer but O'Donovan has a good organisation. I can't see a credible challenger to 2 FG seats here though come Sunday I will probably regret this. Prediction: 2FG 1FF. Tipperary (5). If FG had a good candidate strategy and a good campaign they would have a seat here. However they already have a pseudo-seat here in Michael Lowry who will top the poll. Jackie Cahill of FF and Alan Kelly of Labour are also safe. Mattie McGrath having tapped into conservative issues also has a seat. Being a 5 seater you would think SF could win a seat here. However there is a lot of geography here. For that reason I favour Healy to hold. Prediction: 3IND 1FF 1LAB. Waterford (4). Cullinane of SF will top the poll followed by Butler of FF. Geoghegan will take the FG seat. Last seat goes to cardiac campaigner Shanahan. FF had hopes for 2 but their second candidate has tax issues. Prediction: 1SF 1FF 1FG 1IND. I think Lorna Bogue (Green) stands in good stead to win a seat in Cork South-Central, actually. Sinn Fein are not even standing candidates in Cork South West, surprisingly. It's NW where they're not standing so yeah, I don't envisage a breakout for them there either. (3 seater with no SF, or leftwing, or independent, traditions - if there was one seat SF had reason not to bother standing it is this one.) |
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 3, 2020 13:59:48 GMT
Do parties not even consider putting up a sweeper paper candidate to get what votes they can? Or does nothing attach to national totals that's worth a deposit?
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 3, 2020 14:05:09 GMT
Do parties not even consider putting up a sweeper paper candidate to get what votes they can? Or does nothing attach to national totals that's worth a deposit? Sometimes they do. Incumbents tend not to like it much. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 3, 2020 19:13:39 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 3, 2020 21:25:22 GMT
If this comes to fruition.. SF will rue running only 40+ candidates.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 3, 2020 21:32:33 GMT
If this comes to fruition.. SF will rue running only 40+ candidates. Doubtful, not least because Mary Lou had a bit of a nightmare in tonight's Leaders' Debate, and this will run with the Opinion Poll headlines. SF are surely headed for their best result of the modern era, but they will not beat FF. |
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Post by relique on Feb 3, 2020 21:34:12 GMT
If this comes to fruition.. SF will rue running only 40+ candidates. It will be interesting to see where their transfers go. It will probably help s-pbpa, greens and Labour consolidate / gain seats won't it ? After all, with your election system, extra votes are a lot less useless than in other systems. Still i think they would have had a decent chance in 9 extra candidates with these numbers : Cavan-M Cork north central Cork north West Donegal Laois-Offaly (least probable of those) Limerick city Louth Sligo Leitrim Wicklow Those seats in this very hypothetical wave, would have been gained on: 1 FG, 3 FF, 3 independents and 2 greens. That's not such a big swing for this so improbable outcome ! I don't think these seats would have come true (perhaps only in 5seaters border constituencies ? ) |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 3, 2020 21:47:03 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
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Post by clyde1998 on Feb 3, 2020 21:54:15 GMT
If this comes to fruition.. SF will rue running only 40+ candidates. Has there been any data in terms of transfers? I wonder how well SF would do on that given: Which political party or parties, if any, would you not like to see in Government after the election? ( link) FG 32% FF 23% SF 36%Lab 12% Grn 17% Oth 3% None 5% DK 8% |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862
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Post by obsie on Feb 4, 2020 0:26:18 GMT
On those numbers I would expect a lot of SF candidates either not to need transfers or to pick up enough stray transfers from FF, Ind or smaller left parties to get home fairly comfortably.
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 4, 2020 11:44:41 GMT
If this comes to fruition.. SF will rue running only 40+ candidates. Oh, we're long past that point. |
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Post by markgoodair on Feb 4, 2020 13:07:06 GMT
Due to the death of Independent candidate Marese Skehan ,the poll in Tipperary will be deferred to a later date.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 4, 2020 14:41:32 GMT
No Healy Rae has ever lost an election.. seems like FF are set for two seats in Kerry, if this poll turns out to be accurate.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 4, 2020 16:34:21 GMT
No Healy Rae has ever lost an election.. seems like FF are set for two seats in Kerry, if this poll turns out to be accurate. Don't build up your hopes, the same polling company released a poll just before the last election with Danny Healy-Rae on 4%; he received 12.6%, elected on the second ballot with transfers from his brother. Healey-Rae is a brand name. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Feb 4, 2020 19:25:29 GMT
No Healy Rae has ever lost an election.. seems like FF are set for two seats in Kerry, if this poll turns out to be accurate. Don't build up your hopes, the same polling company released a poll just before the last election with Danny Healy-Rae on 4%; he received 12.6%, elected on the second ballot with transfers from his brother. Healey-Rae is a brand name. 4% again.. One to watch anyway, when counting begins next Sunday.. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 4, 2020 19:28:21 GMT
The difference rhis time is that MHR has a lower figure. Nonetheless, we shall see.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 4, 2020 22:01:51 GMT
I could see the SF poll lead tailing off well before the votes are cast. There will be noises from Brussels, and there will be stories about various firms saying they wanted to relocate from London but are holding fire just in case. Electorate (or a section thereof) will shit their kecks, the Greens and minor leftish groups will profit, FF get in as a minority government. Threat of SF means that FG return FF's favour and quietly allow them to get on with governing.
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