Irish elections

[relique]

Feb 1, 2020 23:51:31 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Feb 1, 2020 23:15:17 GMT obsie said:

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 24 (-2)
SF 24 (+5)
FG 21 (-2)
Oth/Ind 12 (-2)
GP 7 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

Comparing this poll with the equivalent RedC poll at this stage of the 2016 election and projecting forward gives us:

FF 30.3
SF 21.8
Ind/Oth 17.1
FG 16.5
GP 5.7
Lab 3.6
SD 2.0
SP/SWP 1.9

Aontu at 2%, in Irish polls, that is significant, as SD regularly poll at this level. SF vote is soft (due to turnout, er al), but is looking impressive this time.
I still see FF being the biggest party and SF losing significant ministers. Have yoy listened to the Ivan Yates and Gavan Reily 'Calling it' podcasts? They are fascinating.

I guess you meant FG ministers ! I've listened to the Calling it as well ! They are really interesting. Helps to know a bit more about the geography, the vote-bases of every candidate etc...

[obsie]

I think the ministerial carnage is looking to be almost as bad as 2011 - Ross, Zappone, Doherty, Madigan and Creed (the latter two intra-party takeouts), possibly Donohoe, McHugh, Harris and Murphy.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Here we go:
97% Shinners
96% Soc Dems
96% Workers Party
95% Green Party
92% Labour Party
84% Fianna Fail
72% Fine Gael.

[jamie]

Just watched an election video in which Sinn Fein are referred to as ‘centre-right’.

[relique]

Feb 2, 2020 14:10:34 GMT jamie said:

Just watched an election video in which Sinn Fein are referred to as ‘centre-right’.

Haha. Well... as a french, asking for a pension age at 65 seems right-wing to me...

[irish observer]

Some predictions. I've been canvassing. There is an appetite for change. Things are in flux. I am concerned as to how my own party nationally have handled the campaign. FG are going to do bad. Here goes.

Dublin Bay North (5). While somewhat anonymous Denise Mitchell will hold her seat for SF. David Healy the established Howth Cllr will gain an Independent seat for the Greens and I favour Aodhán O Riordán to take the last. He may give up the ghost if he can't now. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1GRN 1SF 1LAB.

Dublin Bay South (4). While historically blue-blooded in nature this constituency is also politically volatile. I do not see FG retaining 2 seats here given current polls and Eoghan Murphy is a lightning rod for anti-Government sentiment. Kate O'Connell more likely to hold. While I don't like to predict it given his origins I could see Chris Andrews of SF gain as a result. Prediction: 1GRN 1FF 1FG 1SF.

Dublin Central (4). The additional of Drumcondra and the Navan Road/Glasnevin areas makes this area more middle class than it was before as it also gains an extra seat. Maureen O'Sullivan has retired. If Mary Fitzpatrick cannot win a seat now this is the end of her political career. Prediction: 1SF 1FG 1FF 1GRN.

Dublin Fingal (5). The Green by-election gain will be retained at the expense of Clare Daly's former seat. Duncan Smith will retain Seán Ryan's retiring seat for Labour. Prediction: 1FF 1SF 1GRN 1LAB 1FG.

Dublin Mid-West (4). Site of SF gain in by-elections from FG. Emer Higgins will win a seat here for FG. FF safe. Gino Kenny to lose. I am not giving this to either Gogarty or the Greens. Instead I think SF can retain 2 seats. Many will disagree. Ward to focus his support from the traditional SF areas of North Clondalkin etc while O Broin appeals to newer voters and in doing so they get 2 seats. Prediction: 2SF 1FF 1FG.

Dublin North-West (3). The territory referred to that transferred into Dublin Central came from here. It has affected Noel Rock's re-election prospects significantly as the constituency is now more poletarian. Lord Mayor Paul McAuliffe will benefit as a result. Prediction: 1FF 1SD 1SF.

Dublin-Rathdown (3). Nothing major happening here. I anticipate no change although Ross' vote should drop significantly. Can't see SF breaking through the likes of this territory. Prediction: 1FG 1GRN 1IND.

Dublin South-Central (4). I expect Catherine Byrne of FG to lose here. There is no FG organisation and Catherine Ardagh of FF will be the beneficiary. In addition I can see a GRN gain in the form of Cllr. Costello. I think Joan Collins will lose here. Bríd Smith is a more prominent spokesperson. Prediction: 1SF 1FF 1GRN 1SOL/PBP.

Dublin South-West (5). Seán Crowe will top the poll significantly. Lahart of FF should also exceed the quota. Brophy of FG and Francis Duffy of the Greens (husband of Catherine Martin) will also win seats. I don't see Paul Murphy holding on - he's been quiet. As she has been a Minister I don't think Katherine Zappone will attract transfers. Votes will stay in Tallaght and I predict that Charlie O'Connor could scrape the last seat. If SF had a second candidate I would give it to them. Prediction: 2FF 1SF 1FG 1GRN.

Dún Laoghaire (4). In a 4 seater FF have to win a seat. I favour Cormac Devlin over Mary Hanafin. Ossian Smyth of the Greens will top the poll followed by Mary Mitchell O'Connor. Despite being wiped out here in May SF could get a respectable vote. However Boyd-Barrett appeals across the class divide and I give the last seat to him. Prediction: 1GRN 1FG 1FF 1SOL/PBP.

Dublin West (4). Taoiseach's constituency. He should top the poll followed by Jack Chambers. Roderic O'Gorman will take a seat for the Greens and take out Joan Burton. Similarly the increased SF poll will elect Paul Donnelly after many attempts and end Ruth Coppinger's career. Prediction: 1FG 1FF 1GRN 1SF.

[obsie]

Feb 2, 2020 17:37:25 GMT irish observer said:

Some predictions. I've been canvassing. There is an appetite for change. Things are in flux. I am concerned as to how my own party nationally have handled the campaign. FG are going to do bad. Here goes.

Dublin Fingal (5). The Green by-election gain will be retained at the expense of Clare Daly's former seat. Duncan Smith will retain Seán Ryan's retiring seat for Labour. Prediction: 1FF 1SF 1GRN 1LAB 1FG.

I would have thought that the unattractive FG ticket of "Bottler" Reilly and "Whiplash" Farrell could be vulnerable here, either to FF or to the Daly-supported Ind.

Agree with most of the rest apart from possibly Dublin Bay South - I suspect FG will hold 2 here if they hold them anywhere unless private renters in Rathmines and Dublin 2 come out in force. Ross may also be vulnerable in Rathdown.

[Devil Wincarnate]

A fun read.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/02/meet-the-healy-raes-the-rural-irish-populists-who-have-never-lost-an-election

[irish observer]

Rest of Leinster.
Carlow-Kilkenny (5). FF would have assumed they were nailed on for 3 here c. 6 months ago. Not happening now. I can see Murnane-O'Connor taking out Deering (FG) and possibly one of her Kilkenny colleagues losing out like Aylward. As Funchion retains her seat, to her surprise, other left-wing votes will help secure the election of Malcolm Noonan of the Greens. Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1SF 1GRN.

Kildare North (4). Vincent Martin, a brother of Catherine Martin, will win a seat here for the Greens. At who's expense? Catherine Murphy will also hold. Of FF Frank O'Rourke is the safer. I just can't see the amount of anti-government transfers favouring Durkan over Lawless. Prediction: 2FF 1GRN 1SD.

Kildare South (4). Really a 3 seater as O'Fearghail is re-elected automatically as Ceann Comhairle. Fiona O'Loughlin comfortably re-elected for FF as is Martin Heydon FG. Mark Wall of Labour takes the last seat. Prediction: 2FF (includes CC) 1FG 1LAB.

Laois-Offaly (5). The old 5 seater re-emerges after a brief hiatus. Carol Nolan is gone here. Fleming and Cowen both of FF and Stanley of SF will exceed the quota. There should be more TDs from Offaly than Laois as has been the historical case. This favours both the prospect of FF gaining a 3rd seat through Peter Ormond and Flanagan losing his. We shall see. Laois-Offaly used be FF's best constituency in the state. Prediction: 3FF 1 SF 1FG.

Longford-Westmeath (4). Penrose's retirement means there is no chance of Labour retention. Joe Flaherty of FF, the former Longford Leader Editor, is the more credible Longford TD. Moran, Burke and Troy all safe. Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1IND.

Louth (5). SF will retain 2 with new personell. I also see Fitzpatrick retaining his seat as an Independent given his additional GAA credentials and non-FG status. Prediction: 2SF 1FF 1FG 1IND.

Meath East (3). 2FG Ministers reside here. No way can they hold both at present. Given that Regina Doherty represents commuter belt territory she is most vulnerable. Darren O'Rourke of SF, while he barely made it onto the Council, could become a TD. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF.

Meath West (3). Thomas Byrne and Damien English safe. I give the last seat to Peadar Tóibín as a quasi-Independent. I'm not sure of the SF chances here. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1AONTU.

Wexford (5). I see FF retaining 2 seats following the by-election. Howlin is safe and Kehoe has the safer FG seat. D'Arcy has not tackled the insurance issue and Gorey can't elect 2 TDs. Bizarrely while he lost his Council seat Mythen will take a seat here for SF. Prediction: 2FF 1LAB 1FG 1SF.

Wicklow (5). Pat Casey has the safer FF seat. FG should lose 1 seat here - Andrew Doyle to hold. Brady of SF will hold. I give a seat to Steven Matthews of the Greens. Steven Donnelly is in a real fight for the last seat. Can he get transfers? On balance I think he may lose to Jennifer Whitmore of SD, a former colleague. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF 1GRN 1SD.

[bjornhattan]

Feb 2, 2020 17:50:53 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

A fun read.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/02/meet-the-healy-raes-the-rural-irish-populists-who-have-never-lost-an-election

I've little knowledge of how parliamentary elections under STV work, but for what reason did they publish that map dividing Kerry into areas where different candidates should be first preferenced? Is it purely a way to balance their votes and ensure both are elected?

[jamie]

Feb 2, 2020 19:30:23 GMT bjornhattan said:

I've little knowledge of how parliamentary elections under STV work, but for what reason did they publish that map dividing Kerry into areas where different candidates should be first preferenced? Is it purely a way to balance their votes and ensure both are elected?

Yes. Each candidate can focus their campaigning on their area and make sure that neither gets too few 1st preferences that they get knocked out early. It’s not a miracle worker but gives each candidate the chance to survive till later in the game and pick up transfer as well as preventing a very popular/high profile candidate hogging 1st preferences that they don’t need. 

[relique]

Feb 2, 2020 19:07:27 GMT irish observer said:

Rest of Leinster.
Carlow-Kilkenny (5). FF would have assumed they were nailed on for 3 here c. 6 months ago. Not happening now. I can see Murnane-O'Connor taking out Deering (FG) and possibly one of her Kilkenny colleagues losing out like Aylward. As Funchion retains her seat, to her surprise, other left-wing votes will help secure the election of Malcolm Noonan of the Greens. Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1SF 1GRN.

Kildare North (4). Vincent Martin, a brother of Catherine Martin, will win a seat here for the Greens. At who's expense? Catherine Murphy will also hold. Of FF Frank O'Rourke is the safer. I just can't see the amount of anti-government transfers favouring Durkan over Lawless. Prediction: 2FF 1GRN 1SD.

Kildare South (4). Really a 3 seater as O'Fearghail is re-elected automatically as Ceann Comhairle. Fiona O'Loughlin comfortably re-elected for FF as is Martin Heydon FG. Mark Wall of Labour takes the last seat. Prediction: 2FF (includes CC) 1FG 1LAB.

Laois-Offaly (5). The old 5 seater re-emerges after a brief hiatus. Carol Nolan is gone here. Fleming and Cowen both of FF and Stanley of SF will exceed the quota. There should be more TDs from Offaly than Laois as has been the historical case. This favours both the prospect of FF gaining a 3rd seat through Peter Ormond and Flanagan losing his. We shall see. Laois-Offaly used be FF's best constituency in the state. Prediction: 3FF 1 SF 1FG.

Longford-Westmeath (4). Penrose's retirement means there is no chance of Labour retention. Joe Flaherty of FF, the former Longford Leader Editor, is the more credible Longford TD. Moran, Burke and Troy all safe. Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1IND.

Louth (5). SF will retain 2 with new personell. I also see Fitzpatrick retaining his seat as an Independent given his additional GAA credentials and non-FG status. Prediction: 2SF 1FF 1FG 1IND.

Meath East (3). 2FG Ministers reside here. No way can they hold both at present. Given that Regina Doherty represents commuter belt territory she is most vulnerable. Darren O'Rourke of SF, while he barely made it onto the Council, could become a TD. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF.

Meath West (3). Thomas Byrne and Damien English safe. I give the last seat to Peadar Tóibín as a quasi-Independent. I'm not sure of the SF chances here. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1AONTU.

Wexford (5). I see FF retaining 2 seats following the by-election. Howlin is safe and Kehoe has the safer FG seat. D'Arcy has not tackled the insurance issue and Gorey can't elect 2 TDs. Bizarrely while he lost his Council seat Mythen will take a seat here for SF. Prediction: 2FF 1LAB 1FG 1SF.

Wicklow (5). Pat Casey has the safer FF seat. FG should lose 1 seat here - Andrew Doyle to hold. Brady of SF will hold. I give a seat to Steven Matthews of the Greens. Steven Donnelly is in a real fight for the last seat. Can he get transfers? On balance I think he may lose to Jennifer Whitmore of SD, a former colleague. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF 1GRN 1SD.

It's funny. I did two separate prediction. One with the SF bubble bursting (as was adviced a couple of pages ago here !) and one with the surge. And in some constituencies, your prediction is closer to the first prediction, and in others it's the second.

Here it's:

with SF surge: Carlow Kilkenny, Kildare South (with SF rather than Lab), Louth (but with Greens getting the last seat on transfers rather than independent), Meath East, Wicklow

without SF surge: Kildare north (but I thought FG would keep a seat against Greens), Laois-Offaly, Longford Weastmeath, Meath West

with Wexford the same result in the two scenarii.

For Dublin it was:

with SF surge: Dublin Bay South and Dun Laoghaire.

without SF surge: Dublin Central, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin South Central (I thought I4C was better placed than S-PBPA, thanks for the tip!) and Dublin South-West.

with Dublin Bay North (though I had no idea who was better placed between Lab & SD), Dublin Fingal, Dublin North-West (I thought Greens would get a seat rather than FF), Dublin Rathdown and Dublin West  the same result for both cases

[jamie]

Finally done the quiz:
FG - 81%
FF - 81%
SD - 79%
Lab - 77%
Green - 76%
WP - 76%
SF - 72%

[obsie]

Feb 2, 2020 19:07:27 GMT irish observer said:

Longford-Westmeath (4). Penrose's retirement means there is no chance of Labour retention. Joe Flaherty of FF, the former Longford Leader Editor, is the more credible Longford TD. Moran, Burke and Troy all safe. Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1IND.

In credibility terms, I would say that Carrigy and Flaherty are much of a muchness, but the likelihood that FF will be in government and FG won't will benefit Flaherty. I would have said Burke was a certainty, but with FG in freefall and with three candidates chasing one seat with probably less than a quota I'm not so sure now. SF spent the last three years shooting themselves in the foot here and Clarke lost her council seat quite badly last year but I suppose a recovery is possible based on national momentum. Burke still to edge it I think but I wouldn't rule out Carrigy if Longford turns out heavily enough, or Clarke if Mary Loumentum materializes on the day.

[irish observer]

Munster
Clare (4). Dr. Harty is retiring. FF gain a seat through Cathal Crowe as a result. I find it hard to see how FG can retain 2 seats here but I've looked through the field. No other candidate springs to mind. The Green Cllr is in rural Ennistymon. I can't see Michael McNamara being credible as an Independent. This is one of SF's weakest constituencies. Prediction: 2FF 2FG.

Cork East (4). I would have seen change here c.6 months out. Now no change has to be favoured. Geography is very important here. O'Keeffe takes the FF seat, Sherlock for Labour, Stanton for FG and Buckley the last for SF. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF.

Cork NC (4). Where Padraig O'Sullivan won by-election for FF. He will retain this seat. Thomas Gould will retain for SF. Mick Barry will hold for Sol/PBP. Lot of anger over Daragh Murphy of FG and I think they will lose seat as a result to FF's Tony Fitzgerald long-serving Cllr and former Lord Mayor. Prediction: 2FF 1SF 1SOL/PBP.

Cork NW (3). Both Moynihans should retain their seats for FF. FG will keep 1 seat but in the form of John Paul O'Shea the former Independent. Michael Creed the Minister for Agriculture will be a casualty as farmers as very angry with FG over Mercosur and associated matters. I do not envisage a breakout for SF here. Prediction: 2FF 1FG.

Cork SC (4). FF retain their 2 seats along with Coveney of FG comfortably. There has always been a left-wing seat here. O Laoghaire now has it and he will hold it for SF. Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1SF.

Cork SW (3): Margaret Murphy-O'Mahony should retain her seat for FF along with FG's Lombard. Michael Collins will be comfortably re-elected as an Independent. No prospect for SF here. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1IND.

Kerry (5): Both Healy-Raes in a canter. Griffin of FG. 1 FF seat which will probably be Brassil. Daly will retain for SF. This seat was gone some months ago. Prediction: 2IND 1FG 1FF 1SF.

Limerick City (4). O'Dea to top the poll for FF. Kieran O'Donnell to retain Michael Noonan's seat for FG. Maurice Quinlivan will hold for SF. I don't think O'Dea will agree to vote management meaning his running mate won't win. Accordingly I think that Independent Cllr Daly will take last seat over O'Sullivan. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF 1IND.

Limerick County (3). Old Limerick West a donkey with a FF rosette would get you 2 seats. Not the case now. I can only see Collins retaining on his own. Neville of FG is safer but O'Donovan has a good organisation. I can't see a credible challenger to 2 FG seats here though come Sunday I will probably regret this. Prediction: 2FG 1FF.

Tipperary (5). If FG had a good candidate strategy and a good campaign they would have a seat here. However they already have a pseudo-seat here in Michael Lowry who will top the poll. Jackie Cahill of FF and Alan Kelly of Labour are also safe. Mattie McGrath having tapped into conservative issues also has a seat. Being a 5 seater you would think SF could win a seat here. However there is a lot of geography here. For that reason I favour Healy to hold. Prediction: 3IND 1FF 1LAB.

Waterford (4). Cullinane of SF will top the poll followed by Butler of FF. Geoghegan will take the FG seat. Last seat goes to cardiac campaigner Shanahan. FF had hopes for 2 but their second candidate has tax issues. Prediction: 1SF 1FF 1FG 1IND.

[johnloony]

Feb 2, 2020 19:30:23 GMT bjornhattan said:

Feb 2, 2020 17:50:53 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

A fun read.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/02/meet-the-healy-raes-the-rural-irish-populists-who-have-never-lost-an-election

I've little knowledge of how parliamentary elections under STV work, but for what reason did they publish that map dividing Kerry into areas where different candidates should be first preferenced? Is it purely a way to balance their votes and ensure both are elected?

Yes, exactly. When STV has relatively few seats per constituency (3, 4 or 5) it is easier to manipulate the system with tactical voting to ensure that n+1 candidates get elected rather than n.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Does Limerick still deserve its nickname of Stab City?

[iain]

Why do you give no chance to Labour retaining their seat in Limerick?

[irish observer]

Connacht-Ulster
Cavan-Monaghan (5). Brendan Smith & Niamh Smyth will hold for FF. No third seat. Heather Humphreys will win a seat for FG. I see a border bounce for SF and they should take 2 seats here. Prediction: 2FF 2SF 1FG.

Donegal (5). SF will regain a second seat comfortably through Padraig MacLochlainn. McConalogue is also comfortable for FF and the Cope should hold the last seat for FF in his last hurrah. I see McHugh retaining his seat for FG. I think the tide will go out for Pringle. Prediction: 2SF 2FF 1FG.

Sligo-Leitrim (4). SF must regret now withdrawing Chris McManus. Marian Harkin should top the poll. Martin Kenny is safe for SF and so is Marc McSharry of FF. Last seat comes down to FF's Eamon Scanlon and FG. We know they have had carnage with selection. I favour Scanlon. Prediction: 2FF 1SF 1IND.

Roscommon-Galway (3). Both Independents are safe here. FF will take last seat. Eugene Murphy is under pressure and I think Orla Leyden will beat him. FG's chances badly hurt when their former candidate Hopkins quit politics for family reasons. Prediction: 2IND 1FF

Galway East (3). Cannon of FG will win a seat and Rabbitte should be favoured to take the FF seat. I don't see 2 FF seats here nor do I see any prospect of SF breaking in here. Canney should hold in these circumstances. Prediction: 1FG 1FF 1IND.

Galway West (5). O Cuiv tops the poll for FF. FG will lose a seat with Kyne the casualty. I see both Grealish and Connolly holding on. Finally I give the last seat to Crowe of FF. This will be a trend of FG transfers over SF. Prediction: 2FF 2IND 1FG


Mayo (4). Calleary and Chambers will hold for FF. Ring is safe for FG. I do not see FG taking a second seat however. I give Conway-Walsh of SF a seat benefiting from the Green transfers. Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1SF.

[greenhert]

Feb 2, 2020 23:25:25 GMT irish observer said:

Munster
Clare (4). Dr. Harty is retiring. FF gain a seat through Cathal Crowe as a result. I find it hard to see how FG can retain 2 seats here but I've looked through the field. No other candidate springs to mind. The Green Cllr is in rural Ennistymon. I can't see Michael McNamara being credible as an Independent. This is one of SF's weakest constituencies. Prediction: 2FF 2FG.

Cork East (4). I would have seen change here c.6 months out. Now no change has to be favoured. Geography is very important here. O'Keeffe takes the FF seat, Sherlock for Labour, Stanton for FG and Buckley the last for SF. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF.

Cork NC (4). Where Padraig O'Sullivan won by-election for FF. He will retain this seat. Thomas Gould will retain for SF. Mick Barry will hold for Sol/PBP. Lot of anger over Daragh Murphy of FG and I think they will lose seat as a result to FF's Tony Fitzgerald long-serving Cllr and former Lord Mayor. Prediction: 2FF 1SF 1SOL/PBP.

Cork NW (3). Both Moynihans should retain their seats for FF. FG will keep 1 seat but in the form of John Paul O'Shea the former Independent. Michael Creed the Minister for Agriculture will be a casualty as farmers as very angry with FG over Mercosur and associated matters. I do not envisage a breakout for SF here. Prediction: 2FF 1FG.

Cork SC (4). FF retain their 2 seats along with Coveney of FG comfortably. There has always been a left-wing seat here. O Laoghaire now has it and he will hold it for SF. Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1SF.

Cork SW (3): Margaret Murphy-O'Mahony should retain her seat for FF along with FG's Lombard. Michael Collins will be comfortably re-elected as an Independent. No prospect for SF here. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1IND.

Kerry (5): Both Healy-Raes in a canter. Griffin of FG. 1 FF seat which will probably be Brassil. Daly will retain for SF. This seat was gone some months ago. Prediction: 2IND 1FG 1FF 1SF.

Limerick City (4). O'Dea to top the poll for FF. Kieran O'Donnell to retain Michael Noonan's seat for FG. Maurice Quinlivan will hold for SF. I don't think O'Dea will agree to vote management meaning his running mate won't win. Accordingly I think that Independent Cllr Daly will take last seat over O'Sullivan. Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF 1IND.

Limerick County (3). Old Limerick West a donkey with a FF rosette would get you 2 seats. Not the case now. I can only see Collins retaining on his own. Neville of FG is safer but O'Donovan has a good organisation. I can't see a credible challenger to 2 FG seats here though come Sunday I will probably regret this. Prediction: 2FG 1FF.

Tipperary (5). If FG had a good candidate strategy and a good campaign they would have a seat here. However they already have a pseudo-seat here in Michael Lowry who will top the poll. Jackie Cahill of FF and Alan Kelly of Labour are also safe. Mattie McGrath having tapped into conservative issues also has a seat. Being a 5 seater you would think SF could win a seat here. However there is a lot of geography here. For that reason I favour Healy to hold. Prediction: 3IND 1FF 1LAB.

Waterford (4). Cullinane of SF will top the poll followed by Butler of FF. Geoghegan will take the FG seat. Last seat goes to cardiac campaigner Shanahan. FF had hopes for 2 but their second candidate has tax issues. Prediction: 1SF 1FF 1FG 1IND.

I think Lorna Bogue (Green) stands in good stead to win a seat in Cork South-Central, actually.

Sinn Fein are not even standing candidates in Cork South West, surprisingly.