CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 24, 2020 18:57:50 GMT
I applied to become part of Politics.ie today - they apoear to have rejected me. I have no idea why? irish observer, do you belong to their forum? |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,447
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 24, 2020 20:18:45 GMT
Chatted to an Irish friend today. Lives in Dublin West. Usually votes Labour but he has had enough of them and is voting Sinn Fein. He thinks a lot of younger people (he is 29)in Dublin may do so
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 24, 2020 22:34:26 GMT
Sinn Fein's problem is turnout amongst thoae who say they will votw for them in Opinio Polls, usually the young and those on estates.
In Dublin, younger voters are offered all sorts of opportunities, including Greens, Social Democrats and Solidarity-PBP. I suspect Greens wikl do best in Dublin, not too well elsewhere, with the odd exception. SF will fall back, except in Donegal, where I expect them to regain a second seat.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862 
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Post by obsie on Jan 25, 2020 21:29:49 GMT
Sinn Fein's problem is turnout amongst thoae who say they will votw for them in Opinio Polls, usually the young and those on estates. In Dublin, younger voters are offered all sorts of opportunities, including Greens, Social Democrats and Solidarity-PBP. I suspect Greens wikl do best in Dublin, not too well elsewhere, with the odd exception. SF will fall back, except in Donegal, where I expect them to regain a second seat. The second seat in Donegal (from Independent) and Dublin West (from Labour or SP) are, I think, fairly likely gains.
After that, I would say Wexford (FG) is most likely. For the moment, the most likely effect of the SF poll surge (while their headline totals don't materialise on the day, they're ahead of their 2016 polling at the moment) will be to save a group of seats that were in peril based on the local election results (Fingal, 2nd seat in Louth, Carlow-Kilkenny, Wicklow, Cork East, Limerick City). |
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Post by relique on Jan 25, 2020 21:32:53 GMT
Sinn Fein's problem is turnout amongst thoae who say they will votw for them in Opinio Polls, usually the young and those on estates. In Dublin, younger voters are offered all sorts of opportunities, including Greens, Social Democrats and Solidarity-PBP. I suspect Greens wikl do best in Dublin, not too well elsewhere, with the odd exception. SF will fall back, except in Donegal, where I expect them to regain a second seat. The second seat in Donegal (from Independent) and Dublin West (from Labour or SP) are, I think, fairly likely gains.
After that, I would say Wexford (FG) is most likely. For the moment, the most likely effect of the SF poll surge (while their headline totals don't materialise on the day, they're ahead of their 2016 polling at the moment) will be to save a group of seats that were in peril based on the local election results (Fingal, 2nd seat in Louth, Carlow-Kilkenny, Wicklow, Cork East, Limerick City).
What about the fifth Cavan-Monaghan seat ? With a low Fine Gael unable to grab a second seat, SF seems poised to be quite competitive, doesn't it ?
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862
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Post by obsie on Jan 25, 2020 21:35:09 GMT
The second seat in Donegal (from Independent) and Dublin West (from Labour or SP) are, I think, fairly likely gains.
After that, I would say Wexford (FG) is most likely. For the moment, the most likely effect of the SF poll surge (while their headline totals don't materialise on the day, they're ahead of their 2016 polling at the moment) will be to save a group of seats that were in peril based on the local election results (Fingal, 2nd seat in Louth, Carlow-Kilkenny, Wicklow, Cork East, Limerick City). What about the fifth Cavan-Monaghan seat ? With a low Fine Gael unable to grab a second seat, SF seems poised to be quite competitive, doesn't it ?
It's a possibility but I'm not sure the Cavan SF candidate is strong enough and they lost much more heavily there in last year's local elections than in Monaghan. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 25, 2020 22:18:29 GMT
What about the fifth Cavan-Monaghan seat ? With a low Fine Gael unable to grab a second seat, SF seems poised to be quite competitive, doesn't it ?
It's a possibility but I'm not sure the Cavan SF candidate is strong enough and they lost much more heavily there in last year's local elections than in Monaghan. Unlikely for the reasons given by obsie. The importance of geograhy, especially in these combined county constituencies, cannot be overstated. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 25, 2020 22:19:17 GMT
Two polls due out tonight and early tomorrow, Ireland Thinks and Red C..
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 25, 2020 22:43:10 GMT
The second seat in Donegal (from Independent) and Dublin West (from Labour or SP) are, I think, fairly likely gains.
After that, I would say Wexford (FG) is most likely. For the moment, the most likely effect of the SF poll surge (while their headline totals don't materialise on the day, they're ahead of their 2016 polling at the moment) will be to save a group of seats that were in peril based on the local election results (Fingal, 2nd seat in Louth, Carlow-Kilkenny, Wicklow, Cork East, Limerick City). Dublin West is very unlikely, given that the byelection gain was based on a very low (26.6%) turnout with only one seat up for election. Mark Ward did a brilliant job, but there are not enough First Preference Votes to guarantee both him and SF TD Eoin Ó Broin election, and the latter will not cede territory to his new colleague. Your mistaking Dublin West with Dublin Mid West.. Paul Donnelly (SF) was not far off in 2016. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 25, 2020 22:54:23 GMT
Dublin West is very unlikely, given that the byelection gain was based on a very low (26.6%) turnout with only one seat up for election. Mark Ward did a brilliant job, but there are not enough First Preference Votes to guarantee both him and SF TD Eoin Ó Broin election, and the latter will not cede territory to his new colleague. Your mistaking Dublin West with Dublin Mid West.. Paul Donnelly (SF) was not far off in 2016. How dud I misread that? Duly deleted. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 25, 2020 23:31:40 GMT
Sinn Fein's problem is turnout amongst thoae who say they will votw for them in Opinio Polls, usually the young and those on estates. In Dublin, younger voters are offered all sorts of opportunities, including Greens, Social Democrats and Solidarity-PBP. I suspect Greens wikl do best in Dublin, not too well elsewhere, with the odd exception. SF will fall back, except in Donegal, where I expect them to regain a second seat. The second seat in Donegal (from Independent) and Dublin West (from Labour or SP) are, I think, fairly likely gains.
After that, I would say Wexford (FG) is most likely. For the moment, the most likely effect of the SF poll surge (while their headline totals don't materialise on the day, they're ahead of their 2016 polling at the moment) will be to save a group of seats that were in peril based on the local election results (Fingal, 2nd seat in Louth, Carlow-Kilkenny, Wicklow, Cork East, Limerick City). I am interested to see where SF will hold on, given a likely gain in Donegal and a possible gain, I could see, in Dublin West; also, where they could fall back: I think Wicklow, where their vote collapsed by over half and they lost 4 out of 6 councillors, is likely lost; they are still likely to struggle in Cork East, Carlow-Kilkenny; for similar reasons, Maurice Quinlivan is likely to lose in Limerick City. After the local election results, I think the retirement, and concomitant coat-tails, of Gerry Adams, will lay to rest a second TD for SF. I think my last opinion is the one where I may change my mind. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 25, 2020 23:46:39 GMT
Full breakdown yet to be released..
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 26, 2020 0:09:55 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 26, 2020 0:15:46 GMT
Red C usually poll FF low and FG high compared to other companies, so not at all good for FG |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 26, 2020 0:23:33 GMT
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862
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Post by obsie on Jan 26, 2020 1:02:05 GMT
RedC for the Sunday Business Post:
FF 26 (+2)
FG 23 (-7)
SF 19 (+8)
Oth/Ind 14 (-2)
GP 8 (+1)
Lab 4 (-2)
SD 3 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
Aontú 1 (-)
Given RedC's consistent history of overstating FG's share (at the expense of FF in particular), this is very bad news for them.
The equivalent figures at this stage of the 2016 election were:
FG 28 SF 20 FF 18 Ind/Oth 17 Lab 8 SD 4 SP/SWP 3 GP 2
Comparing this poll with the corresponding RedC poll at the same point in the 2016 campaign and projecting forward to election day would give:
FF 32.3
FG 20.5
Ind/Oth 18.1
SF 12.8
GP 8.7
SP/SWP 2.9
Lab 2.6
SD 2.0
Ireland Thinks for the Irish Mail on Sunday (changes since Christmas poll):
FF 27 (+2)
FG 22 (-6)
SF 20 (+5)
Ind/Oth 11 (-5)
GP 10 (+3)
Lab 6 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
SP/SWP 1 (-2)
Aontú 1 (+1)
Stick a fork in FG.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862
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Post by obsie on Jan 26, 2020 1:07:29 GMT
The second seat in Donegal (from Independent) and Dublin West (from Labour or SP) are, I think, fairly likely gains.
After that, I would say Wexford (FG) is most likely. For the moment, the most likely effect of the SF poll surge (while their headline totals don't materialise on the day, they're ahead of their 2016 polling at the moment) will be to save a group of seats that were in peril based on the local election results (Fingal, 2nd seat in Louth, Carlow-Kilkenny, Wicklow, Cork East, Limerick City). I am interested to see where SF will hold on, given a likely gain in Donegal and a possible gain, I could see, in Dublin West; also, where they could fall back: I think Wicklow, where their vote collapsed by over half and they lost 4 out of 6 councillors, is likely lost; they are still likely to struggle in Cork East, Carlow-Kilkenny; for similar reasons, Maurice Quinlivan is likely to lose in Limerick City. After the local election results, I think the retirement, and concomitant coat-tails, of Gerry Adams, will lay to rest a second TD for SF. I think my last opinion is the one where I may change my mind. The thing is that FG are well down on last May and Labour are at best stagnant, so who do they lose the seats to? I think the Greens will pick up a seat in Wicklow and that FF will hold their defection from the SDs, but FG are going to struggle to hold two (with Simon Harris being a possible casualty). The collapse of the further left in Limerick makes things easier for Quinlivan. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 26, 2020 2:06:35 GMT
If I remember right, one of the surprises of the 2016 election was that Fianna Fáil candidates were starting to do quite well picking up transfers - having traditionally repelled them. If that trend continues there are several constituencies where they could make easy gains. Never count FF out of Irish elections.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862
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Post by obsie on Jan 26, 2020 7:08:21 GMT
If I remember right, one of the surprises of the 2016 election was that Fianna Fáil candidates were starting to do quite well picking up transfers - having traditionally repelled them. If that trend continues there are several constituencies where they could make easy gains. Never count FF out of Irish elections. One of the features of the November by-elections was that FG got overhauled on transfers (by Labour in Wexford but also by SF in Cork). Combine that with FG running far too many candidates for ~20% of the vote and a "get them out" mood and something very nasty may be in store. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 26, 2020 10:06:49 GMT
If I remember right, one of the surprises of the 2016 election was that Fianna Fáil candidates were starting to do quite well picking up transfers - having traditionally repelled them. If that trend continues there are several constituencies where they could make easy gains. Never count FF out of Irish elections. One of the features of the November by-elections was that FG got overhauled on transfers (by Labour in Wexford but also by SF in Cork). Combine that with FG running far too many candidates for ~20% of the vote and a "get them out" mood and something very nasty may be in store. An apt time to remind less frequent observers of Irish political history of Labour and FG's spectacular contribution to psephology: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_(Amendment)_Act_1974 |
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