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Post by relique on Jan 19, 2020 15:22:14 GMT
The problem with Irish Opinion Polls is that they are not consistent in prompting for all parties, they can't properly account for local factors and, as we know, Irish politics is very local. Also, before the local elections, one poll had SF on 18% and they ended up with 9.48%. Also, the whole working out where transfer will go is interesting and difficult to predict.
Thank you ! So I'll keep following the comments here (and trying to perceive where the bias is !)
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Jan 19, 2020 16:28:12 GMT
B&A tends to overstate SF a bit and also to shoot around from poll to poll, but the FF/FG change doesn't shock me particularly.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 20, 2020 13:46:17 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 20, 2020 22:08:21 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 20, 2020 22:15:27 GMT
So, two outliers in 2 days? Let's see what the weekend brings. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jan 20, 2020 22:17:36 GMT
Not very outlier-y for FG and the relative order of the parties is the same. I don't see how FG cobble together a majority or working arrangement at this point.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 20, 2020 22:28:23 GMT
So, two outliers in 2 days? Let's see what the weekend brings. Ipsos consistently over estimates Fine Gael, and underestimates Fianna Fail.. Becoming abundantly clear that FG are set for major losses, if this trend continues.. |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Jan 20, 2020 22:48:27 GMT
So, two outliers in 2 days? Let's see what the weekend brings. Ipsos consistently over estimates Fine Gael, and underestimates Fianna Fail.. Becoming abundantly clear that FG are set for major losses, if this trend continues.. All pollsters do that to some extent (RedC most of all, which is why we'll see FG clinging to its figures for dear life next weekend) but it's hard to see where FG can pick up support from barring perhaps the Greens. |
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Post by irish observer on Jan 20, 2020 23:16:24 GMT
Both MRBI and RedC underestimate FF as recent elections indicate. I do recognise the FG decline. SF have never converted a poll bounce thus far into results at polls with differential turnout from working class groups and young males. The regional samples in the B&A were somewhat outliers. I wait to see MRBI's.
Greens can expect gains in Dublin possibly 4-5 and also in the communter belt like Kildare and they have a chance in Louth. Mirroring the PDs in the past their chances of gains will be in urban areas but their chances of further gains such as Cork SC, Limerick City, Galway West etc are tempered by their opposition to major and needed road projects in those areas. Waterford is also a chance of a gain.
Regarding Catholicleft's views on Aontú as Sarah O'Reilly is from Bailieborough she will take away votes in the home base of Niamh Smyth (FF) and from other candidates. FF will retain 2 seats either through Senator Robbie Gallagher who has North Monaghan to himself or Smyth with a reduced vote. Brendan Smith (FF) is safe. O'Reilly will poll well I'm told and could be in 6th place at the first count.
Tóibín is a good TD. Wouldn't mind if he was in FF. Cassells of FF is running on his own to keep his seat. English (FG) will be re-elected. SF will lose. Its possible he could get in in effect as an Independent ahead of SF. We have to wait on another couple of polls to see are SF maintaining their figures. Regarding other areas I don't see Aontú being competitive though some people like Jim Codd, Tóibín's sister and the pharmacist in Dublin will get respectable votes.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 20, 2020 23:26:10 GMT
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Jan 21, 2020 4:08:17 GMT
Greens being counted twice in those breakdowns.
Comparing this poll with the corresponding MRBI poll at the same point in the 2016 campaign and projecting forward to election day would give:
FF 28.3
FG 20.5
Ind/Oth 17.1
SF 15.8
GP 8.7
Lab 4.6
SD 3.0
SP/SWP 1.9
I think that overstates the SDs a bit but it strikes me as being a credible final score - I think people have made up their minds to be rid of FG with Black-and-Tangate crystallizing a feeling that was already there although there isn't (yet) a definitive move towards anyone else.
In terms of seats that might produce something like FF 60 FG 35 SF 25 GP 12 Lab 5 SD 4 SWP 1 Aontú 1 Oth 17
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 21, 2020 8:35:13 GMT
Both MRBI and RedC underestimate FF as recent elections indicate. I do recognise the FG decline. SF have never converted a poll bounce thus far into results at polls with differential turnout from working class groups and young males. The regional samples in the B&A were somewhat outliers. I wait to see MRBI's. Greens can expect gains in Dublin possibly 4-5 and also in the communter belt like Kildare and they have a chance in Louth. Mirroring the PDs in the past their chances of gains will be in urban areas but their chances of further gains such as Cork SC, Limerick City, Galway West etc are tempered by their opposition to major and needed road projects in those areas. Waterford is also a chance of a gain. Regarding Catholicleft's views on Aontú as Sarah O'Reilly is from Bailieborough she will take away votes in the home base of Niamh Smyth (FF) and from other candidates. FF will retain 2 seats either through Senator Robbie Gallagher who has North Monaghan to himself or Smyth with a reduced vote. Brendan Smith (FF) is safe. O'Reilly will poll well I'm told and could be in 6th place at the first count. Tóibín is a good TD. Wouldn't mind if he was in FF. Cassells of FF is running on his own to keep his seat. English (FG) will be re-elected. SF will lose. Its possible he could get in in effect as an Independent ahead of SF. We have to wait on another couple of polls to see are SF maintaining their figures. Regarding other areas I don't see Aontú being competitive though some people like Jim Codd, Tóibín's sister and the pharmacist in Dublin will get respectable votes. Pretty much agree with this assessment, though Michael Ryan in Limerick City could also poll well. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 21, 2020 14:39:00 GMT
Being reported that Ann McCloskey is standing for Aontu in Sligo-Leitrim, which I didn't expect. It makes a certain amount if sense as she will be fairly well-known in the media where there is an over-spill from Derry. They had no candidates here in the locals, even in the parts of south Donegal in the constituency, but they obviously think there is some traction here.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jan 22, 2020 15:00:24 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 22, 2020 16:06:40 GMT
And only two Healy Raes.
(Also is there a hyphen in Healy-Rae or not? They seem to be a bit inconsistent.)
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 22, 2020 16:20:14 GMT
Who is this likely to help most? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 23, 2020 13:51:57 GMT
Who is this likely to help most? Labour. Saves some pointless expense. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 23, 2020 21:22:37 GMT
Dreadfully sad, but even the Spring name gas failed to carry weight these days. A Spring represented tge area from 1943 to 1916, until Arthur Spring was beaten.
It seems bizarre Labour can't find a candidate in Kerry, given their still strong base in Tralee, when Aontu can.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,014
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 24, 2020 18:21:10 GMT
Dreadfully sad, but even the Spring name gas failed to carry weight these days. A Spring represented tge area from 1943 to 2916, until Arthur Spring was beaten. It seems bizarre Labour can't find a candidate in Kerry, given their still strong base in Tralee, when Aontu can. Bloody hell, nearly a thousand years! 😮 |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 24, 2020 18:30:37 GMT
Dreadfully sad, but even the Spring name gas failed to carry weight these days. A Spring represented tge area from 1943 to 2916, until Arthur Spring was beaten. It seems bizarre Labour can't find a candidate in Kerry, given their still strong base in Tralee, when Aontu can. Bloody hell, nearly a thousand years! 😮 Bloody fat finger syndrome! |
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