By-elections/Deferred elections 24th/25th May 2018

[Tony Otim]

24th May – By-elections:
BRISTOL UA, Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
DONALD, Graham Christopher (Liberal Democrats)
MOSS, Ian Edward (Green)
SMITH, Steve (Conservative)
STRATFORD, Teresa Ann (Labour)

2016: Con 4019, 3683, 3207; LD 3277, 2382, 1887; Lab 1589, 1232, 1230; Grn 1305, 820

The LD candidate was the third Lib Dem in 2016. The Lib Dem elected in 2016 was an incumbveent from the old Henleaze ward. One of the elected Conservatives was incumbent from the old Westbury ward, although the other incumbent from that ward was the 3rd placed Conservative who missed out.



HORSHAM DC, Cowfold, Shermanbury & West Grinstead (Con died)
Candidates:
LAMBERT, Lynn Audrey (Conservative)
PERRY, David George (Liberal Democrat)
TYZACK, Kenneth Frederick (Labour)

2015: Con 2087, 2071; LD 837
May 13by: Con 873; LD 243
2011: Con 1242, 1127; LD 628
2007: Con 1131, 1124; LD 394
Jun 05by: Con 742; LD 253
2003: Con 863, 746; LD 262, 248; Lab 129



NORTH KESTEVEN DC, Kirkby La Thorpe & South Kyme (Con resigned)
Candidates:
HARLOW, Dean Robert (Conservative0
HEAD, Mervyn Paul (Lincolnshire Independents)
HISLOP, Sue (Liberal Democrats)
THOMAS, Jame David (Labour)

2015: Con 838; Lincs Ind 462
2011: Con 491; Ind 254; LD 98
2007: Con unopposed.

I think the Lincs Independent is the only candidate who actually lives in the ward although the others aren’t from far outside.



WAVERLEY BC, Farnham Castle (Farnham Resident resigned)
Candidates:
AYLWIN, Jo (Liberal Democrat)
BEAMAN, David (Farnham Residents)
KAYE, Rebecca Louise (Labour)
NASIR, Rashida Ahmad (Conservative)
WESTCOTT, Mark Edward (Independent)

Aug 16by: Farnham Res 386; LD 292; Con 229; UKIP 43 (Farnham Residents GAIN from Con)
2015: Farnham Res 1043; Con 797, 641; LD 736; Lab 438
2011: Con 669, 600; Ind 218, 201; LD 204; Lab 152
2007: Con 489, 466; Ind 417, 387; LD 303, 258; UKIP 101; Lab 84
2003: LD 631, 630; Con 424, 402; Lab 78



DEFERRED ELECTION 24th MAY:

STOCKPORT MB, Edgeley & Cheadle Heath (Labour held)
Candidates:
BEHAN, Peter Gerald (UKIP)
HARDING, Philip (Labour) (Incumbent since at least 2004)
HARRISON, Oliver John (Liberal Democrats)
LECK, Pat (Conservative)
LUFF, Camilla Helen Anne (Green)

2016: Lab 2214; UKIP 393; Con 252; Grn 198; LD 192
2015: Lab 3466; Con 945; UKIP 857; LD 549; Grn 506
2014: Lab 1884; UKIP 579; Grn 297; Con 267; LD 240
2012: Lab 2428; Con 547; LD 406; Grn 256
2010: Lab 3137; LD 1532; Con 1177; BNP 258; Grn 221; Ind 111
2008: Lab 1447; LD 972; Con 481; Grn 199
2007: Lab 1558; LD 1139; Con 444; BNP 285
2006: Lab 1486; LD 548; Con 439; Ind 344; Grn 280
2004: Lab 2098, 2021, 1794; LD 853, 835, 765; Con 565, 542, 533; BNP 385

The UKIP candidate stood in 2016 and the Green in 2015 and 2014.





DEFERRED ELECTION 25th MAY:

TAMWORTH BC, Glascote (Labour held)
BOX, Dennis (UKIP)
JONES, Kevin (Green)
LUNN, Allan Edward (Conservative)
PEAPLE, Simon (Labour) (incumbent since 2006)

2016: UKIP 544; Lab 448; Con 386; Ind 77
2015: Lab 1003; Con 973; UKIP 927; Grn 154
2014: Lab 853; Con 651
2012: Lab 588; Ind 436; Con 267
2011: Ind 702; Lab 636; Con 419
2010: Lab 1387; Con 1140; Grn 447
2008: Con 675; Lab 634
2007: Ind 587; Lab 467: Con 381
2006: Lab 728; Con 630
2004: Lab 593; Ind 568; Con 369
2003: Ind 576; Lab 370; Con 186
2002: Lab 566, 518, 507; Ind 416; Con 278, 277, 234

The victorious UKIP candidate from 2016 was the indy who cam 4th in 2002 and then won in 2003, 2007 and 2011 but didn’t defend his seat in 2015.

[Deleted]

Quite fancy that Tamworth seat!

[maxque]

Resignations are due to:
Bristol - Health reasons (incumbent has lung issues, making winter quite hard on her)
North Kesteven Health reasons
Waverley - Moving to the Cotswolds

[andrewteale]

Also Broadland, Aylsham
Resignation of Ian Graham (C).

Sue Catchpole (LD)
Peter Harwood (Lab)
Hal Turkmen (C)

March 2016 by-election LD 829 C 654 Lab 243
May 2015 result C 1588/1513/1125 LD 1521/1065/926 Lab 1082 UKIP 719/658
July 2013 by-election LD 688 C 501 Lab 181
May 2011 result C 1336/1253/1010 LD 1182/846/752 Lab 542/471 Grn 446
May 2007 result LD 1137/1067/1024 C 1124/1082/1027 Lab 246/230/199
June 2004 result LD 918/907/845 C 854/822/797 Lab 719/461/421

[John Chanin]

Andrew's preview

britainelects.com/2018/05/24/previews-24-may-2018/

[YL]

Westbury on Trym & Henleaze must be one of the most strongly Remain wards outside London to have a Tory councillor.

[andrewp]

May 24, 2018 6:53:43 GMT YL said:

Westbury on Trym & Henleaze must be one of the most strongly Remain wards outside London to have a Tory councillor.

Do we know how Remain it was though?

[YL]

May 24, 2018 6:59:05 GMT andrewp said:

May 24, 2018 6:53:43 GMT YL said:

Westbury on Trym & Henleaze must be one of the most strongly Remain wards outside London to have a Tory councillor.

Do we know how Remain it was though?

Yes, there are ward figures for Bristol (though as usual I don't know what they did with postals). 73.2% Remain.

thebristolcable.org/2016/07/we-didnt-all-vote-remain/

[Pete Whitehead]

St Peters ward in St Albans was over 80% Remain and still has a Tory councillor (the leader of the council in fact). The Harpenden wards were at least 70% Remain, more so in the safest Conservative wards of South and West

[Deleted]

May 24, 2018 9:49:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

St Peters ward in St Albans was over 80% Remain and still has a Tory councillor (the leader of the council in fact). The Harpenden wards were at least 70% Remain, more so in the safest Conservative wards of South and West

tbf the Tories were beaten into 3rd in St Peters this year and Alec will likely be defeated next year

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I wouldn't mind betting some of the safe Tory Westminster and K&C wards were approaching 80% Remain.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 24, 2018 17:47:48 GMT @priceofdawn said:

May 24, 2018 9:49:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

St Peters ward in St Albans was over 80% Remain and still has a Tory councillor (the leader of the council in fact). The Harpenden wards were at least 70% Remain, more so in the safest Conservative wards of South and West

tbf the Tories were beaten into 3rd in St Peters this year and Alec will likely be defeated next year

Indeed it is likely and if that happens and somebody asks for examples of strong Remain voting wards outside of London with a Tory councillor I will no longer be able to offer St Peters. But now I can.

[Deleted]

May 24, 2018 18:04:09 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 24, 2018 17:47:48 GMT @priceofdawn said:

tbf the Tories were beaten into 3rd in St Peters this year and Alec will likely be defeated next year

Indeed it is likely and if that happens and somebody asks for examples of strong Remain voting wards outside of London with a Tory councillor I will no longer be able to offer St Peters. But now I can.

but only because the little matter of not having faced the electors since Brexit

[Pete Whitehead]

This was the post to which I was responding

May 24, 2018 6:53:43 GMT YL said:

Westbury on Trym & Henleaze must be one of the most strongly Remain wards outside London to have a Tory councillor.

There was no specification made about the date of the Tory councillor's election

[Davıd Boothroyd]

North Kesteven, Kirkby La Thorpe and South Kyme:

Electorate 1,976
BPs verified 606

Turnout 30.8%

[andrewp]

North Kesteven Lincs Ind gain from Conservative

NLind 278
Con 271
Lab 30
Lib Dem 27

[Zardoz]

Broadland Council Aylsham ward

LD Sue Catchpole 1018
Lab 328
Con 865

[Davıd Boothroyd]

NORTH KESTEVEN Kirkby La Thorpe and South Kyme

Mervyn Paul Head (Lincolnshire Independents) 278
Dean Robert Harlow (Conservative) 271
James David Thomas (Labour Party) 30
Sue Hislop (Liberal Democrats) 27

[Robert Waller]

Kirkby la Thorpe & South Kyme (North Kesteven) result:

LIND: 45.9% (+10.3)
CON: 44.7% (-19.7)
LAB: 5.0% (+5.0)
LDEM: 4.5% (+4.5)

[Robert Waller]

Aylsham (Broadland) result:

LDEM: 46.0%
CON: 39.1%
LAB: 14.8%