andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 25, 2018 6:08:09 GMT
Waverley, Farnham Castle
David Beaman Farnham Resident 354 Jo Aylwin LD 338 Rashida Nasir Con 175 Rebecca Kaye Lab 42 Mark Westcott Ind 26
Farnham Residents hold.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 25, 2018 6:19:08 GMT
Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze (Bristol) result: CON: 42.3% (+2.9) LDEM: 39.5% (+7.3) LAB: 13.0% (-2.6) GRN: 5.2% (-7.6) Con GAIN from LDem. The previously elected LDem Cllr came third in a three member ward....and with the benefit of a big personal vote, according to Andrew's preview. I was surprised that so many people had this as an LD win, always looked an either-way-er to me. Disappointing but biggest increase in vote share, narrow result and Labour vote to squeeze further wouldn't leave me too disappointed when looking forward to the next full elections.
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Post by yellowperil on May 25, 2018 8:13:35 GMT
Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze (Bristol) result: CON: 42.3% (+2.9) LDEM: 39.5% (+7.3) LAB: 13.0% (-2.6) GRN: 5.2% (-7.6) Con GAIN from LDem. The previously elected LDem Cllr came third in a three member ward....and with the benefit of a big personal vote, according to Andrew's preview. I was surprised that so many people had this as an LD win, always looked an either-way-er to me. Disappointing but biggest increase in vote share, narrow result and Labour vote to squeeze further wouldn't leave me too disappointed when looking forward to the next full elections. To be fair to us on the prediction competition, I think we all thought it was an either-way-er, but the challenge of the prediction competition is that you can't sit on that particular fence and I liked to think there was a very marginally better than even chance of the LDs pulling it off, and so did most others (herd instinct follows). I was alone, though, in thinking we might also pull off Farnham Castle and I narrowly missed that one too, so I've been piling up the wrong-winner penalty points
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Post by froome on May 25, 2018 8:16:48 GMT
Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze (Bristol) result: CON: 42.3% (+2.9) LDEM: 39.5% (+7.3) LAB: 13.0% (-2.6) GRN: 5.2% (-7.6) Con GAIN from LDem. The previously elected LDem Cllr came third in a three member ward....and with the benefit of a big personal vote, according to Andrew's preview. I was surprised that so many people had this as an LD win, always looked an either-way-er to me. Disappointing but biggest increase in vote share, narrow result and Labour vote to squeeze further wouldn't leave me too disappointed when looking forward to the next full elections. The result and turnout are about what I would expect here, as mboy says, a good turnout given the weather yesterday evening. I would class it as a good result for the Lib Dems. A close friend of mine lives in the ward and is one of these Labour voters Adam refers to. She said she became utterly sick of the attempts to squeeze her vote, which turned off any chance of her vote transferring (which were very slim anyway). Vote squeezing can only get you so far, you then have to start convincing voters of your policies.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 25, 2018 8:58:12 GMT
True, very true. Perhaps now having another Tory councillor will help focus your friend's mind for the squeeze next time around though...
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on May 25, 2018 9:14:17 GMT
I always though that Bristol would be a tough ask for the Lib Dems, in light of the opposition and the mayoral result last year. I'd definitely have gone for Tory gain if I'd played the prediction competition, and in truth I feared a much wider margin of victory - it looks like a boundary change that has really helped the Conservatives.
1 loss, 1 near miss and 1 gain - feels like a microcosm of last year's general election.
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Post by Robert Waller on May 25, 2018 9:29:34 GMT
Waverley, Farnham Castle David Beaman Farnham Resident 354 Jo Aylwin LD 338 Rashida Nasir Con 175 Rebecca Kaye Lab 42 Mark Westcott Ind 26 Farnham Residents hold. Farnham Castle (Waverley) result, %: FRES: 37.9% (+3.3) LDEM: 36.1% (+11.7) CON: 18.7% (-7.7) LAB: 4.5% (-10.0) IND: 2.8% (+2.8) Farnham Residents HOLD.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 25, 2018 9:54:10 GMT
I always though that Bristol would be a tough ask for the Lib Dems, in light of the opposition and the mayoral result last year. I'd definitely have gone for Tory gain if I'd played the prediction competition, and in truth I feared a much wider margin of victory - it looks like a boundary change that has really helped the Conservatives. 1 loss, 1 near miss and 1 gain - feels like a microcosm of last year's general election. 2016.
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Post by liverpoolliberal on May 25, 2018 9:57:25 GMT
I always though that Bristol would be a tough ask for the Lib Dems, in light of the opposition and the mayoral result last year. I'd definitely have gone for Tory gain if I'd played the prediction competition, and in truth I feared a much wider margin of victory - it looks like a boundary change that has really helped the Conservatives. 1 loss, 1 near miss and 1 gain - feels like a microcosm of last year's general election. 2016. Could be referring to the West of England contest?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 25, 2018 9:59:49 GMT
True, though I don't think either were especially encouraging from a LibDem point of view......
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Post by liverpoolliberal on May 25, 2018 10:02:09 GMT
True, though I don't think either were especially encouraging from a LibDem point of view...... Pretty sure that's the point he's making.................
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Post by andrewteale on May 25, 2018 10:11:11 GMT
Reported that the Conservatives have held Horsham, Cowfold etc.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 25, 2018 10:30:10 GMT
Reported that the Conservatives have held Horsham, Cowfold etc. Labour have come 2nd apparently
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Post by justin124 on May 25, 2018 10:42:39 GMT
True, very true. Perhaps now having another Tory councillor will help focus your friend's mind for the squeeze next time around though... Many left of centre voters still see the LibDems as the 'Tories' little helpers' from the Coalition years and find little reason to support them just to defeat a Tory.
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Post by andrewteale on May 25, 2018 10:48:34 GMT
Horsham, Cowfold Shermanbury and West Grinstead: C hold C 661 Lab 158 LD 148
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Post by andrew111 on May 25, 2018 11:12:19 GMT
True, very true. Perhaps now having another Tory councillor will help focus your friend's mind for the squeeze next time around though... Many left of centre ACTIVISTS still see the LibDems as the 'Tories' little helpers' from the Coalition years and find little reason to support them just to defeat a Tory. Helpful amendment for you...
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Post by yellowperil on May 25, 2018 11:18:53 GMT
Horsham, Cowfold Shermanbury and West Grinstead: C hold C 661 Lab 158 LD 148 The only fight here was for second place, obviously, but I wasn't expecting Labour to edge ahead of the Lib Dems in deeply rural Sussex. I know Cowfold and West Grinstead a bit (though no idea where Shermanbury is supposed to be- I think it's a myth) and am pretty surprised there could be that many Labour voters there, though of course it's the sort of place where voters might vote for the person and take little notice of the party label.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 25, 2018 11:19:36 GMT
Labour seem to have put a lot of effort into campaigning in the ward.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 25, 2018 11:29:44 GMT
Many left of centre ACTIVISTS still see the LibDems as the 'Tories' little helpers' from the Coalition years and find little reason to support them just to defeat a Tory. Helpful amendment for you... Well, even that is arguably not insignificant. And I still get the coalition years cited quite often as a reason not to trust/vote for the LibDems.
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Post by Robert Waller on May 25, 2018 11:45:13 GMT
Horsham, Cowfold Shermanbury and West Grinstead: C hold C 661 Lab 158 LD 148 Once again I'll do the percentages Cowfold, Shermanbury & West Grinstead (Horsham) result: CON: 68.4% (-3.0) LAB: 16.3% (+16.3) LDEM: 15.3% (-13.3) Con HOLD.
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