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Post by yellowperil on May 25, 2018 20:36:20 GMT
mboy did say by-election and I don't think May elections count there were by elections held on the same day Of course I realise that, though it doesn't sound to me as though the Leeds examples were by elections if they were filling 3 places? In any case mboy asked his question about the Bristol vote and by-elections I think he meant by-elections away from main election days when you would normally expect a much lower turnout. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 25, 2018 20:36:34 GMT
...and with the benefit of a big personal vote, according to Andrew's preview. I was surprised that so many people had this as an LD win, always looked an either-way-er to me. Disappointing but biggest increase in vote share, narrow result and Labour vote to squeeze further wouldn't leave me too disappointed when looking forward to the next full elections. The result and turnout are about what I would expect here, as mboy says, a good turnout given the weather yesterday evening. I would class it as a good result for the Lib Dems. A close friend of mine lives in the ward and is one of these Labour voters Adam refers to. She said she became utterly sick of the attempts to squeeze her vote, which turned off any chance of her vote transferring (which were very slim anyway). Vote squeezing can only get you so far, you then have to start convincing voters of your policies.Yes, very sound. Perhaps I should have said that there are still Labour (and Green) voters who may be persuaded to switch, rather than directly switch from Conservative. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 25, 2018 20:43:18 GMT
there were by elections held on the same day Of course I realise that, though it doesn't sound to me as though the Leeds examples were by elections if they were filling 3 places? In any case mboy asked his question about the Bristol vote and by-elections I think he meant by-elections away from main election days when you would normally expect a much lower turnout. Leeds was an all-out election due to boundary changes this year...
Bigger wards than Bristol though
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 25, 2018 21:10:21 GMT
The only examples I can find going back 20 years or so are two held on general election days, two in Birmingham and both Lib Dem defeats - Moseley & Kings Heath in May 2005 which was a Labour hold but where the Lib Dem candidate got 3,898 votes and Fox Hollies in June 2001 where Labour gained the seat from the Lib Dems with the latter winning 2,838.
Also in 2001 the Conservatives lost in Morley North with 2,929 votes.
Obviously being general election day by-elections they don't really count.
The nearest I can find in 'normal' circumstances are also in Birmingham - two by-elections in Sparkbrook. The first in September 2009 was a Respect hold with Labour winning 2228 votes and the second in November 2011 a Labour gain with Respect winning 2,301
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 25, 2018 22:14:05 GMT
That's interesting! So if we're taking about by elections without coincident major elections to boost turnout, this may have been the biggest losing vote for many years...
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Post by andrewteale on May 25, 2018 22:20:59 GMT
I've gone through the entire list from Janary 2010 and found three more recent examples affected by general election turnout. In 2010, the Lib Dems polled 2,802 votes in Walton South and Oatlands, Surrey county council; the winning Tory candidate Anthony Samuels had 5,231 votes, which was 2615.5 times as many as he polled in the December 2017 Portsoken Alderman election in the City of London. Also in 2010, the Lib Dems came second in East Grinstead South and Ashurst Wood, West Sussex county council, with 2,771 votes; the Tories held the seat with 2,878 and 328 voted for an independent. In 2015 Labour came second in Dunfermline South ward, Fife council with 3,185 votes to 5,899 for the SNP.
Surprisingly however, the overall winner was not at a general election, although it was on the same day as the 2011 local elections and the AV referendum. The Conservatives came second in Harlow West, Essex county council, with 4,564 votes to 5,320 for Labour.
Scotland's transferable vote system has thrown up several examples of candidates losing on the final count of a by-election with over 2,000 votes. The highest losing tally appears to be Liberton/Gilmerton, Edinburgh council on 20th June 2013, where the SNP lost the final round to Labour by 2,633 votes (2,249 first preferences and 384 transfers) to 3,448. If we exclude mayoral by-elections and polls combined with something else, that appears to have been the record for this decade before Westbury-on-Trym came along.
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Post by Robert Waller on May 25, 2018 22:29:12 GMT
Tamworth are usually among the quickest counters on a regular May local election night, so I'd expect a reasonably early result from Glascote - if they're counting tonight, and if it's not very close (though it certainly could be).
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Post by andrewteale on May 25, 2018 22:43:44 GMT
Reported that Labour have held Tamworth, Glascote by 12 votes over the Conservatives.
I have been made aware of a mistake in the preview. It turns out that Chris Cooke, independent councillor for Glascote ward 2003-15, and Chris Cooke, UKIP councillor for Glascote ward 2016-, are not the same person.
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Post by Robert Waller on May 25, 2018 22:43:50 GMT
Dennis Box (UKIP) 124
Kevin Jones (Green) 55
Allan Lunn (Conservative) 478
Simon Peaple (Labour) 490
Labour retain Glascote, but by just 12 votes
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2018 22:48:00 GMT
Dennis Box (UKIP) 124 Kevin Jones (Green) 55 Allan Lunn (Conservative) 478 Simon Peaple (Labour) 490 Labour retain Glascote, but by just 12 votes Given the profile of the area, I'll take almost anything. |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 25, 2018 22:51:04 GMT
Glascote (Tamworth) result:
LAB: 42.7% (-14.0)
CON: 41.7% (-1.6)
UKIP: 10.8% (+10.8)
GRN: 4.8% (+4.8)
Labour HOLD.
Chgs. w/ 2014.
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on May 25, 2018 22:59:13 GMT
Where's the Ukip surge klaxon?
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on May 25, 2018 23:10:25 GMT
Fuck off ukip
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Post by Robert Waller on May 25, 2018 23:12:49 GMT
Where's the Ukip surge klaxon? UKIP actually won this ward last time it was contested, in 2016. |
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Post by middleenglander on May 25, 2018 23:24:16 GMT
Bristol, Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze - Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | Conservative | 2,900 | 42.3% | +2.9% | -0.1% | Liberal Democrat | 2,704 | 39.5% | +7.3% | +10.1% | Labour | 891 | 13.0% | -2.6% | -2.8% | Green | 355 | 5.2% | -7.6% | -7.2% | Total votes | 6,850 |
| 67% | 80% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2¼% / 5% since 2016 Council now 37 Labour, 15 Conservative, 11 Green, 7 Liberal Democrat Broadland, Alysham - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2013 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,018 | 46.0% | -2.0%% | +15.1% | +19.1% | -4.2% | +12.3% | +15.9% | Conservative | 865 | 39.1% | +1.2% | +6.8% | +6.7% | -2.6% | +1.0% | +0.2% | Labour | 328 | 14.8% | +0.8% | -7.2% | -10.0% | -1.6% | -0.6% | -1.6% | UKIP |
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| -14.6% | -15.8% |
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| Green |
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| -12.7% | -14.5% | Total votes | 2,211
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| 128% | 45% | 51% | 161% | 63% | 72% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 4¼% / 6¼% since 2015 and 5¾% / 7¾% since 2011 - but Liberal Democrat to Conservative 1½% since 2016 byelection and ¾% since 2013 byelection Council now 41 Conservative, 6 Liberal Democrat Horsham, Cowfold, Shermanbury & West Grinstead - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2013 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 661 | 68.4% | -3.0% | -2.9% | -9.9% | +1.9% | +3.0% | Labour | 158 | 16.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 148 | 15.3% | -13.3% | -13.4% | -6.5% | -18.3% | -19.3% | Total votes | 967 |
| 33% | 33% | 87% | 52% | 53% |
Swing not particularly meaningful Council now 38 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent North Kesteven, Kirkby La Thorpe & South Kyme - Lincolnshire Independent gain from Conservative| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | 2007 result | Lincolnshire Independent | 278 | 45.9% | +10.3% | from nowhere |
| Conservative | 271 | 44.7% | -19.7% | -13.5% | unopposed | Labour | 30 | 5.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Liberal Democrat | 27 | 4.5% | from nowhere | -7.2% |
| Independent |
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| -30.1% |
| Total votes | 606 |
| 47% | 72% | n / a |
Swing Conservative to Lincolnshire Independent 15% since 2015 Council now 27 Conservative, 9 Lincolnshire Independent, 2 Hykeham Independent, 3 Independent Waverley, Farnham Castle - Farnham Residents hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Farnham Residents | 354 | 37.9% | -2.8% | +3.3% | +2.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 338 | 36.1% | +5.4% | +11.7% | +11.1% | +19.7% | +19.1% | Conservative | 175 | 18.7% | -5.4% | -7.7% | -5.8% | -35.1% | -34.2% | Labour | 42 | 4.5% | from nowhere | -10.0% | -10.4% | -7.7% | -8.2% | Independent | 26 | 2.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| Previous Independent |
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| -17.5% | -17.5% | Total votes | 935 |
| 98% | 31% | 32% | 75% | 78% |
Swing Farnham Residents to Liberal Democrat ~ 4% since 2016 by-election and similar since 2015 Council now 50 Conservative, 6 Farnham Residents, 1 Liberal Democrat Stockport, Edgely & Cheadle Heath - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 1,709 | 73.9% | +5.7% | +19.0% | +16.2% | -1.1% | Liberal Democrat | 203 | 8.8% | +2.9% | +0.1% | +1.4% | +0.4% | Conservative | 187 | 8.1% | +0.3% | -6.9% | -0.1% | -1.4% | Green | 144 | 6.2% | +0.1% | -1.8% | -2.9% | -1.0% | UKIP | 71 | 3.1% | -9.0% | -10.5% | -14.7% | from nowhere | Total votes | 2,314 |
| 71% | 37% | 71% | 77% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 2¾% since 2016, 13% since 2015, 8¼% since 2014 and ¼% since 2012 Council now 25 Labour, 21 Liberal Democrat, 13 Conservative, 3 Ratepayers, 1 Independent Tamworth, Glascote - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Labour | 490 | 42.7% | +11.9% | +9.8% | -14.0% | -2.8% | Conservative | 478 | 41.7% | +15.1% | +9.9% | -1.6% | +21.0% | UKIP | 124 | 10.8% | -26.6% | -19.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 55 | 4.8% | from nowhere | -0.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independents |
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| -33.8% | Total votes | 1,147 |
| 79% | 38% | 76% | 89% |
Swing not particularly significant apart from 2014 when 6¼% Labour to Conservative
Council now 22 Conservative, 6 Labour, 1UKIP, 1 Independent
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Post by Andrew_S on May 25, 2018 23:42:14 GMT
Dennis Box (UKIP) 124 Kevin Jones (Green) 55 Allan Lunn (Conservative) 478 Simon Peaple (Labour) 490 Labour retain Glascote, but by just 12 votes Given the profile of the area, I'll take almost anything. Glascote has usually been one of Labour's better wards in Tamworth. But I did think the Tories would edge it tonight so it's a relatively good result for Labour IMO. |
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Post by Tony Otim on May 26, 2018 9:39:44 GMT
Reported that Labour have held Tamworth, Glascote by 12 votes over the Conservatives. I have been made aware of a mistake in the preview. It turns out that Chris Cooke, independent councillor for Glascote ward 2003-15, and Chris Cooke, UKIP councillor for Glascote ward 2016-, are not the same person. Oops! Mea Culpa. I just assumed it was the same person. I wonder if many voters in 2016 made the same mistake? |
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cllrchriscooke
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Post by cllrchriscooke on May 26, 2018 18:13:38 GMT
Reported that Labour have held Tamworth, Glascote by 12 votes over the Conservatives. I have been made aware of a mistake in the preview. It turns out that Chris Cooke, independent councillor for Glascote ward 2003-15, and Chris Cooke, UKIP councillor for Glascote ward 2016-, are not the same person. Oops! Mea Culpa. I just assumed it was the same person. I wonder if many voters in 2016 made the same mistake? Just saw this so no need for my other comment however the voters did not make the same mistake. Chris who retired is my father and I got to know many of the residents over the years between him and work in the area. My leaflet also clarified that and many were thankful I was carrying on from where he left off. Although a post above this giving the results misses off that Tamworth also has an Independent still  |
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