WJ
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Post by WJ on Feb 15, 2021 12:43:07 GMT
That would put us back to square one with a repeat of the situation from October 2017 – except for slim chance that a PSOE government in Madrid could be less keen than a PP one to invoke Article 155 in response... It will be an interesting scenario. I think it is a given that Sanchez will have no issue in invoking 155 should the need arise. The precedent has been set not just in 2017 but also during the pandemic, when a similar article in the constitution was invoked to centralise powers in Madrid to deal with the virus. Sanchez has proved himself to have much more nous when it comes the Catalan question than Rajoy and the PP ever did. You can bet that national police presence will be not only less obvious but also under much stricter orders not to beat little old ladies over the head with batons. That was the only thing that generated significant negative press for the Spanish state and it won't be allowed to happen again. |
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Post by eurofighter! on Feb 15, 2021 16:49:23 GMT
That would put us back to square one with a repeat of the situation from October 2017 – except for slim chance that a PSOE government in Madrid could be less keen than a PP one to invoke Article 155 in response... It will be an interesting scenario. I think it is a given that Sanchez will have no issue in invoking 155 should the need arise. The precedent has been set not just in 2017 but also during the pandemic, when a similar article in the constitution was invoked to centralise powers in Madrid to deal with the virus. Sanchez has proved himself to have much more nous when it comes the Catalan question than Rajoy and the PP ever did. You can bet that national police presence will be not only less obvious but also under much stricter orders not to beat little old ladies over the head with batons. That was the only thing that generated significant negative press for the Spanish state and it won't be allowed to happen again. Yes but whether the perps of those acts in 2017 actually care about what the direct orders are from Madrid. That's a more structural issue within the various police services (including the Mossos btw...who despite the press on their leader are divided quite equally between nationalists and hispanophiles). The negative press wasn't just about the little old ladies...putting people in prison for sedition charges when they put papers in boxes is also extremely disproportionate. The political prisoners issue has turned the Catalan middle class from soft confederalist ambitions to a more radical stance. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Feb 15, 2021 17:03:55 GMT
It will be an interesting scenario. I think it is a given that Sanchez will have no issue in invoking 155 should the need arise. The precedent has been set not just in 2017 but also during the pandemic, when a similar article in the constitution was invoked to centralise powers in Madrid to deal with the virus. Sanchez has proved himself to have much more nous when it comes the Catalan question than Rajoy and the PP ever did. You can bet that national police presence will be not only less obvious but also under much stricter orders not to beat little old ladies over the head with batons. That was the only thing that generated significant negative press for the Spanish state and it won't be allowed to happen again. Yes but whether the perps of those acts in 2017 actually care about what the direct orders are from Madrid. That's a more structural issue within the various police services (including the Mossos btw...who despite the press on their leader are divided quite equally between nationalists and hispanophiles). The negative press wasn't just about the little old ladies...putting people in prison for sedition charges when they put papers in boxes is also extremely disproportionate. The political prisoners issue has turned the Catalan middle class from soft confederalist ambitions to a more radical stance. Yes, that's why I think if events turn in that direction, the state will keep policing to a minimum. During the protests in October 2019, Sanchez just let Mossos deal with everything, which caused a right old headache for Torra et al. Sure there was negative press about the sedition charges. Although that was from the usual suspects who either don't understand the Spanish constitution or who don't agree with the constitution. Hitting little old ladies drew criticism from all sides. You might be right about the middle classes, although I'm not convinced. Maybe they are becoming more radical, but that did not manifest itself in the election results yesterday. |
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Post by eurofighter! on Feb 15, 2021 18:12:13 GMT
Yes but whether the perps of those acts in 2017 actually care about what the direct orders are from Madrid. That's a more structural issue within the various police services (including the Mossos btw...who despite the press on their leader are divided quite equally between nationalists and hispanophiles). The negative press wasn't just about the little old ladies...putting people in prison for sedition charges when they put papers in boxes is also extremely disproportionate. The political prisoners issue has turned the Catalan middle class from soft confederalist ambitions to a more radical stance. Yes, that's why I think if events turn in that direction, the state will keep policing to a minimum. During the protests in October 2019, Sanchez just let Mossos deal with everything, which caused a right old headache for Torra et al. Sure there was negative press about the sedition charges. Although that was from the usual suspects who either don't understand the Spanish constitution or who don't agree with the constitution. Hitting little old ladies drew criticism from all sides. You might be right about the middle classes, although I'm not convinced. Maybe they are becoming more radical, but that did not manifest itself in the election results yesterday. I think it has manifested itself through a process (no pun intended) where you start from the early 2000s and end here, and if you look at the PSC vote then it was - in addition to their "red belt" - middle class catalanists who have now swung towards the nationalists. Indeed PSC's downfall was because they were seen as trying to do the splits between those two blocs of voters. Now PSC is a soft "unionist" vehicle for people who identify as both spanish and catalan in equal measure. But yesterday they mainly benefited from low turnout too - a bit like the Dutch Labour Party in the euro elections, they are calling it a major comeback but I'm not convinced. Add to that the ongoings within the Convergents camp, notably its radicalisation, are not a coincidence. Whilst Puigdemont was more of a hardline nationalist than Artur Mas, his radicalisation and the way the entire movement has followed him down the path of UDI is quite symptomatic too of a middle class that used to not want to rock the boat that much. On the topic of sedition - I am not a lawyer or constitutional expert. I do trust the legal systems of Germany, the United Kingdom (namely Scotland) and Belgium - especially the first one - and they found the charges sufficient to extradition to be wanting. These are serious legal systems, unlike the Spanish one which is heavily politicised, and even then is quite laughable. Whilst a UDI is illegal, whether Junqueras et al deserve the criminal charges brought against them is really debatable. My understanding is that one of the core issues to be proven was for the sedition charges was if there was a conspiracy to commit violence. I can find 4 or 5 "illegal UDIs" called by 5 blokes in a yurt ignored by the central state and they don't seem to me to be inherently violent. Locking them up for a big part of their adult life is sick. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 30, 2021 10:12:01 GMT
It's all getting a bit nasty in Madrid. Several PSOE and Podemos figures have been sent bullets in the post, as has Isabel Diaz Ayuso and (for reasons not clear) the head of the Guardia Civil. A bloodstained knife was sent to the minister for tourism.
There seems to be quite a degree of solidarity, with Ayuso and Iglesias condemning the attacks on each other. Vox are refusing to join the condemnation. Which seems a bizarre stance for many reasons, not least because they weren't shy about condemning death threats to their own candidates back in February.
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Post by therealriga on May 2, 2021 22:14:00 GMT
The latest Madrid poll:
PP 41.2 (+19.0)
PSOE 20.3 (-7.0)
MásM 17.0 (+2.3)
Vox 9.3 (+0.4)
UP 7.1 (+1.5)
Cs 3.7 (-15.8)
with projected seats...
PP 60 (+30)
PSOE 30 (-7)
MásM 24 (+4)
Vox 13 (+1)
UP 9 (+2)
Cs 0 (-26)
Looks very much like a PP minority with confidence and supply agreement with Vox. Of course, if Cs managed to squeeze past the 5% threshold mark, which looks unlikely, that could give PP an extra option.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 3, 2021 9:20:45 GMT
A collection of OpinionPolls - unfortunately from April 28th, so not up to date:   |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 3, 2021 9:22:17 GMT
Increasing polarization being polled:   |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 3, 2021 9:23:48 GMT
Looks very much like a PP minority with confidence and supply agreement with Vox. Of course, if Cs managed to squeeze past the 5% threshold mark, which looks unlikely, that could give PP an extra option. Cs will quite certainly not come into parliament and PP&Cs would not get enough seats. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 4, 2021 18:09:43 GMT
Turnout projected to be over 70%, up from 58% in 2019 (held the same day as municipal and European elections, but only a month after general elections).
Exit poll:
PP 62-65 (+ 32-35)
PSOE 25-28 (- 9-12)
Más Madrid 21-24 (+ 1-4)
Vox 12-14 (+ 0-2)
Podemos 10-11 (+ 3-4)
Total number of seats: 136 (+4 due to ever-increasing population)
Ciudadanos nowhere near the threshold and will lose all 26 of their seats (5 of their members from 2019 were already sitting as independents anyway). PP minority government without outside support from Vox very likely.
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Post by therealriga on May 4, 2021 20:09:43 GMT
With 49.6% counted, the polls look to have been right.
PP 63 (+33)
PSOE 26 (-11)
MásM 24 (+4)
VOX 13 (+1)
UP 10 (+3)
Cs 0 (-26)
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Post by tiberius on May 4, 2021 20:14:28 GMT
Madrid has a left-leaning counting bias. PP might end up with an outright majority at this rate.
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Post by therealriga on May 4, 2021 20:32:29 GMT
Madrid has a left-leaning counting bias. PP might end up with an outright majority at this rate. They've picked up a seat from PSOE since I posted that but with 74% counted, it still looks like they'll fall short. The turnout is estimated at over 75% which would easily break the turnout record (70.4% in 1995.) Was a gamble by Ayuso to call an election in the middle of a pandemic, poll lead or no, but it's paid off handsomely for her. Vox don't even have to actively support now, they can just abstain on issues where they want to put distance between themselves and the PP. |
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Post by tiberius on May 4, 2021 20:38:14 GMT
Madrid has a left-leaning counting bias. PP might end up with an outright majority at this rate. They've picked up a seat from PSOE since I posted that but with 74% counted, it still looks like they'll fall short. The turnout is estimated at over 75% which would easily break the turnout record (70.4% in 1995.) Was a gamble by Ayuso to call an election in the middle of a pandemic, poll lead or no, but it's paid off handsomely for her. Vox don't even have to actively support now, they can just abstain on issues where they want to put distance between themselves and the PP. Yeah, 69 seats doesn't look possible now. In any case, Ayuso didn't really need a majority, and it was going to be hard for her to get one anyway. She doesn't even need Vox votes to be reinstated as President. Last time they did around this well was in 2011. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 4, 2021 22:07:26 GMT
With 49.6% counted, the polls look to have been right. PP 63 (+33) PSOE 26 (-11) MásM 24 (+4) VOX 13 (+1) UP 10 (+3) Cs 0 (-26) Regardless of what one might think of her or of the PP, or of the PSOE or Cs for that matter, but that's a stonking win and there will surely be some nervous PP blokes fearing that the next Kanzlerkandidatin is on her way. |
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2021 9:12:54 GMT
Looks like Mas Madrid and PSOE are on 24 seats each, with Mas Madrid 0.1% ahead in votes and claiming (as in they are claiming it, not that it's officially the case so far as I know) main opposition status.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 5, 2021 12:30:18 GMT
That's got to be pretty humiliating for PSOE.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2021 13:24:02 GMT
How come PSOE do so badly in Madrid compared to centre-left parties in most other European capital cities?
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Post by John Chanin on May 5, 2021 13:56:52 GMT
Also interesting that the anti-lockdown stance was popular in Madrid, unlike in many other cities in a variety of countries. It’s not as if Spain has a good record in avoiding deaths and serious illness from the coronavirus.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 5, 2021 14:31:24 GMT
Also interesting that the anti-lockdown stance was popular in Madrid, unlike in many other cities in a variety of countries. It’s not as if Spain has a good record in avoiding deaths and serious illness from the coronavirus. There's a writer called Giles Tremlett who writes about Spain. His theory about Madrid is that its social life takes places almost exclusively in the street and in bars, and that socialising at home is completely alien. It's an interesting theory at any rate. |
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